Crisis Group pessimistic on Thailand

Crisis Group pessimistic on Thailand

Thai politics are sinking towards further turmoil, and require a dialogue and new social contract, the International Crisis Group argued in a new policy paper issued Thursday.

The problem, the Brussels-based group argued, is that public anxiety and military repression of dissent make such agreement impossible.

It was the first lengthy comment on Thailand by the award-winning ICG since the May, 2014, coup.

The Group is a non-governmental organisation that operates around the world, with a goal of taking high-level advocacy to prevent or resolve conflicts.

Its new paper published Thursday is entitled Thailand's Lengthening Roadmap to Elections and will be available at the group's website.

According to the ICG paper, Thailand "is in the grip of a conflict between forces of change and continuity that has political, economic and geographical dimensions".

The army currently leads efforts "to preserve the status quo in the face of socio-economic change and political claims of provincial voters".

The report describes the failure of the draft constitution, saying that the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) lobbied against it, "not only extending its tenure, but also sparing it the potential embarrassment of rejection by voters in a plebiscite".

Despite support for the defeat of the draft, the public now doubts the military's commitment to relinquish power to an elected government for several more years. It says the NCPO is "playing for time" by refusing to draft a constitution in a manner that would give it legitimacy.

Most Thais, it claims, are "either receptive or resigned to a period of military rule", but also expect future turmoil, at least partly because the military insists on having veto power over the constitution.

While negotiations and a new social order are required, "Necessary conditions for such a dialogue, including protection of political rights and leadership with a stake in compromise, are absent".

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