After the quake

There's an old saying that Thailand is a paradise on the blue planet. A place of natural beauty and wonder, one could easily believe that Mother Nature is kind to the people here.

But in the past few years, mounting cases of natural disasters -- rising sea levels, flooding and a fear-rattling earthquake -- have troubled the old saying that supposes the country is well sheltered from any such threats.

On Dec 26, 2004, Thailand experienced its first massive earthquake in modern history when a tsunami started in the Indian Ocean slammed the country's southern coast. Over 4,812 people died. Another 4,499 went missing.

Those who survived still live with the trauma of having come so close to death.

Looking forward, people are now tasked with developing an action plan to tackle the next major event.

"If there's an earthquake again, the number of lives lost should be a lot less [than in 2004]," said Bunchar Khorsakul, a village headman in Ko Phra Thong, a sparsely populated island in Phangnga province. "We've already had the experience [of dealing with earthquake hazards]."

The six-metre-high wave took his father's life as he was resting at his oceanside home. At the time, Mr Bunchar was lucky to be two kilometres away from the shore. The wave swept him up and carried him to a mangrove forest, but his life was saved.

After the nightmare, some villagers decided to move, but several remained.

Those who remained had to consider how to face life going forward with limited fear.

Over the past 12 years, the community has built warning towers, designed an evacuation plan and established an earthquake information system. Schoolchildren are taught about earthquakes and their effects on the land and its people. Parents share tips on how to survive.

A new town fitted with stronger infrastructure was set up in the tsunami-stricken area. Local resorts have fully resumed business, marketing the serene vacation scene in all its original, paradise-like appeal.

Mr Bunchar rebuilt his old house by the ocean. His homestay business has carried on.

Today, Khao Lak, the popular tourist town hit hardest by the 2004 wave, hardly shows a trace of any damage or grievances.

New souvenir shops, cafes and commercial buildings have sprung up. Tourists fill the streets in high season.

Tor 813, a museum exhibiting a Thai navy ship swept onshore by the tsunami, sits between big, sprawling property developments.

Still, the possibility of a major earthquake is no longer inconceivable for people in the southern provinces.

On Dec 7, a 6.5-magnitude earthquake struck Indonesia's Sumatra island, taking at least 100 lives in Aceh.

Some residents in Phuket reported feeling the ground shake.

"We monitored the update information closely on that day," said Mr Bunchar. "No evacuation order was announced by state agencies. We have a good pool of information that can help us prepare for future earthquake hazards."

He added that villagers prepare by carrying walkie-talkies with them in case of an emergency.

In this year alone, over 470 earthquakes were measured in Thailand and its neighbouring countries, including Myanmar, Laos and Indonesia. Shaking was felt by Thai residents in 22 incidents, according to records from the Seismological Bureau under the Thai Meteorological Department.

It's now clear that Thailand is a place at risk for earthquakes. A small community like Mr Bunchar's has found an effective way to prepare for future events.

But what lengths will the country as a whole go to show it has learned its lesson from the last quake?

LOW LIKELIHOOD

Likelihood levels are assessed by impact and frequency. Places with high disaster frequency generally adapt better to hazards. Those facing a lower frequency, but suffering high impact, tend to have more difficulty adapting.

"In extremely high-consequence areas, people tend to adapt to hazards that occur frequently in that one place," said Kerry Sieh, a seismologist and director of Nanyang Technological University's Earth Observatory.

"Most don't spend time worrying about low likelihood."

Speaking at the Thai Research Fund's conference early this month, Mr Sieh said that around US$7 billion was spent after the 2004 tsunami to help affected countries.

A large amount of money was devoted to building projects to reduce the impact of high waves.

Despite being a low-likelihood country, Thailand will still need to improve preparation strategies to brace for high-impact effects.

Thai geologists, seismologists and engineers seem to be a step ahead of sectors like business and real estate in their earthquake preparation.

Before 2004, state budget approval for seismic research was hard to acquire, even though seismologists had already determined that earthquakes in modern-day Thailand's area have been occurring since 624 BC.

"We [the general public] were taught that earthquakes were rare incidents," said Punya Charusiri, head of the Research Unit for Earthquake and Tectonics Geology of Mainland Southeast Asia.

Recent research led the Department of Mineral Resources to confirm the existence of two new active fault lines in Phetchaburi and Uttaradit since 2010, making a grand total of 14 fault lines spread out across the northern provinces, the area along the Thai-Myanmar border and some southern provinces along the coast of the Andaman Sea.

In June, a study called "Seismic hazards in Thailand: a compilation and updated probabilistic analysis" by Mr Punya and Thai geologist Santi Pailoplee produced a series of maps that outlined Thailand's susceptibility to earthquakes.

In the next 50 years, the map shows that provinces along the Thai-Myanmar border, such as Kanchanaburi, Mae Hong Son and Tak, face a 50-100% chance of experiencing an earthquake with Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) level VI, defined as an earthquake that "can be felt by all, frighten many, move heavy furniture and make plaster fall, among other slight damages".

The northern provinces face a 10-30% probability, while some parts of Phuket, Phangnga, Surat Thani, Ranong, Chumphon and Prachuap Khiri Khan have a 20-70% chance of experiencing an earthquake of the same magnitude.

The effects of an earthquake of MMI level VII, one step up from the previously described, has a 10-60% probability rate in provinces bordering Myanmar and some southern provinces. These can cause "considerable damage to poorly built or badly designed structures".

Finally, although it's not located on any active fault line, Bangkok and its peripheral areas are still at risk for ground motion from long-distance earthquakes.

Bangkok and its surrounding provinces are built on soft clay, which can increase the power of a seismic wave by three to five times, according to a study by the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT).

High-rise buildings lacking the right seismic design can experience ground motion and accompanying damages.

Pennung Warnitchai, a school of engineering and technology professor who led the AIT's study, has analysed the damage of distant earthquakes on Bangkok. He says a potential future earthquake in Bangkok could inflict damage comparable to the levels reached in the Mexico City earthquake in 1985, an eight-magnitude quake that occurred 350 kilometres away from the city centre, but created severe damage and left at least 5,000 people dead.

Bangkok has 1,434 tall buildings, classified as those with over 12 storeys. The tallest buildings he surveyed were 88 storeys high.

Each is roughly valued at between 500 million to 1,700 million baht, with 600 to 1,900 living or working there.

If an earthquake happens once around every 2,500 years, an estimated four to 17 buildings may collapse.

However, if an earthquake takes place around once every 500 years, up to four buildings may collapse.

QUICK FIX

Thailand has enacted a law requiring building owners in earthquake-prone areas to adopt seismic design principles.

The law, introduced in 1997 to some northern provinces, widened the coverage area to the southern coast after the 2004 tsunami.

The latest version of the law encourages old building owners to upgrade to earthquake-resistance structures. Seismic design will add 5% to normal building costs, estimates Prof Pennung.

The law would suggest that Thailand has learned some lessons from 2004.

A multitude of research has helped the public effectively prepare for an earthquake, while other studies are in progress.

But any time an earthquake is reported in Thailand or its neighbouring countries, a flurry of social media messages conveys a deep-seated sense of panic about people's lack of preparedness for the next big one.

Not all property developers are adapting their building developments to potential fault lines below.

The diary of a Thai earthquake victim, Weeraphong Kangwannavakul, 44, offers lessons about the real dysfunction that can follow natural disasters.

On May 5, 2014, at 6.08pm, an earthquake of the MMI level VI struck the Mae Lao district of Chiang Rai. Its effects were felt across other northern provinces, including Chiang Mai and Lampang, and even Myanmar.

One person was killed and several injured. Roads, buildings and a Buddha statue were damaged since they lacked proper earthquake-resistance structures.

Further south in Bangkok, some reported feeling tall buildings sway.

Around 100 aftershocks were registered.

People later learned it was the strongest earthquake to be recorded in modern-day Thailand.

It was the first time Mr Weeraphong had experienced an earthquake. As soon as he felt the ground shaking, he ran around his house to grab his wife and child. They evacuated to the parking lot until the shaking ceased.

"I forgot all the advice I'd heard from the media [about how to deal with an earthquake], like hiding under a table to avoid falling things," he recalls.

"You know what? I don't think those theories really work out here. Buildings are not earthquake resistant. It was reported that ceilings and beams collapsed in many houses.

"Going under the table wouldn't help. We need to find solutions that match our context."

In the three months after the quake, he wrote about the emergency response and aid distribution in his diary.

He recalls people arriving in droves to give assistance, while food was delivered in large volumes to victims.

Locals reported finding expired canned fish among the donated mix.

Construction materials were also a part of the donations. But much of this would soon end up piled up as garbage since they either surpassed demand or simply didn't suit the local architecture.

Some organisations arrived to promote corporate social responsibility activities, including conducting photo ops.

The aid seemed heavily focused on fixing immediate damage instead of building a sustainable future for locals.

Soon, the local business and real estate sectors stated that the earthquake was not, and would not, affect people and their livelihoods. Be confident in investment, they said. It was only a minor accident.

"Everyone wanted to help but they did not understand what was really needed. Much of the money went to something that didn't last long, and it didn't focus on local people's adaptation and resilience after the quake," said Mr Weerapong.

"What we lack is ongoing support for local people to manage future disasters and practise self-reliance."

Following the quake, locals learned how to renovate their houses by using more earthquake-resistant materials and techniques.

Affected communities worked towards evacuation plan training.

Some community leaders became engaged in disaster management and preparation. They collaborated with state agencies to make early warning systems. But they also got fed up after receiving very little support.

The World Risk Report in 2016 ranked Thailand as 89th among 171 developing countries for being at risk for disaster. Around 14% of the population are exposed to natural disasters such as earthquakes, cyclones, flooding, drought and sea level rise.

It also received a 75% lack of coping capabilities rating -- assessed by governance, risk reduction, early warnings, healthcare, social and material coverage -- and a 41% lack of adaptive capacities ratings related to future natural hazards.

Southeast Asia is among the most natural disaster-prone areas in the world.

From 1980 onwards, a significant increase was recorded in the number of natural disasters worldwide.

NEXT STEPS

"Our weakness is we fail to share our experiences of facing disaster in their aftermath," said Sirinon Suwanmolee, a lecturer at King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, who has studied disasters in Thailand extensively.

After the 2004 tsunami, money and people flooded into the South to help victims build a new life, similarly to the reaction to the Mae Lao earthquake.

Many non-profit organisations sprung up, then disappeared. Several houses built by donors can be found abandoned today.

"A lot of people went to make merit after the earthquake. They felt sad for the loss, but they had never experienced a quake themselves, so they couldn't grasp the possible idea that it could occur to them," said Ms Sirinon.

"We have a tsunami museum. But it's a museum of grief. We see it and we feel sad, and that's the end."

There seems to be a difficulty in seeing the connection between the past and the future in Thailand.

Those who have felt an earthquake know that disaster is never as far away as people think. These are the people who must urge others to build up the capacity to adapt.

Ms Sirinon notes that there are four steps to getting people prepared for future disaster -- to perceive the risk, to know what to do to temper that risk, to communicate with others and finally, to implement actions accordingly.

However, most people's knowledge only extends to the first or second step.

Early this month, 12 of 14 southern provinces were inundated by heavy rainfall. About 94,000 people were severely affected. Trang suffered its worst inundation in 30 years.

The Meteorological Department issued an early warning for very heavy rain caused by an active low-pressure area over northern parts of Sumatra, and the strong northeast monsoon across the South and the Gulf of Thailand.

However, there are many people who couldn't leave their property to avoid flooding in time. They had to wait for aid from outsiders.

In 2011, Thailand experienced strong flooding in 65 of 77 provinces. It killed over 800 people and affected 13.6 million people. The economic damage amounted to 1.4 trillion baht.

An early warning system is one way to alert people of disasters, says Ms Sirinon. But what will best prepare people is looking back on the past. Without learning from history, people cannot brace themselves and be resilient in the face of future disasters.

The Tor 813 boat in the middle of Khao Lak's commercial zone may serve as a reminder of the power of the earthquake that struck the Andaman Sea coast in 2004.

But the small community of Ko Phra Thong has much to teach the rest of the country. Our future survival starts now.