The Fukushima accident in Japan in 2011 put the brakes on several years of rapid increases in new nuclear power plant construction worldwide. But despite the increased concerns over the safety of nuclear technology since 2011, a number of Asian countries are continuing to pursue their nuclear energy ambitions in order to strengthen national energy security and mitigate climate change impacts.
China, where nuclear represented 2.1% of power production in 2013, leads the world in terms of building new plants, with India and South Korea following closely. In Asean, Vietnam and Malaysia are in the most advanced stages of nuclear power development, while Thailand and Indonesia have been talking and planning for years.
On a global scale, there are 437 nuclear power plants operating with a combined capacity of 376 gigawatts, representing about 11% of generating capacity, according to the World Nuclear Association (WNA). Another 69 plants are under construction, 47 of them in Asia.
The new capacity is expected to increase by 8% every year to 401 gigawatts (GW) for the low projection and 699 GW for the high projection by 2030.
Experts attribute the increase to the fact that nuclear energy, despite the large upfront capital cost, is reliable, cheap and stable with low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The investment cost for a typical 1,000-megawatt nuclear plant is between US$2.5 billion and $8 billion depending on design, location and financing.
"In short, nuclear power is expensive to build but cheap to run. Variable operating costs, essentially fuel costs, are a comparative advantage of nuclear power, especially when plants have been fully depreciated," Holger Rogner of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) co-wrote in Asia's Energy Challenge, published by the Asian Development Bank.
"The high capital cost is [offset] by low resource, fuel, operation and maintenance cost."
A labourer collects plastic bags on a dust screen covering construction waste near a power plant in Zhengzhou, Henan province in this July 15, 2014 file photo. China Power Investment Corp is merging with the State Nuclear Power Technology Corp, as Beijing drives consolidation in its rapidly expanding nuclear power sector with the aim of eventually exporting reactors. REUTERS
NUCLEAR IN ASEAN
For countries without significant indigenous fossil resources, nuclear power remains an important option. Some may already have nuclear power plants and others may be developing economies with growing energy requirements.
Vietnam, for instance, has signed an agreement with Russia to build and finance two 1,000-megawatt reactors and a similar agreement for another 2,000 MW with Japan. The country started planning its nuclear programme in 1995 and initial site evaluations took place in 2008.
Construction of the first plant, to be 100%-owned by state-run Electricite de Vietnam (EVN), originally was scheduled to begin in 2014 with grid connection by 2020.
But the plan has been postponed given delays in technical, human resource and regulatory development, according to Prof Thu Hamanh, director of the Information Centre on Nuclear Energy at Hanoi University of Science & Technology.
The current plan projects that construction would start in 2019 with operation to begin in 2025, he told Asia Focus on the sidelines of Nuclear Power Asia 2015 held in Kuala Lumpur late last month.
In Malaysia, the Malaysia Nuclear Power Corporation (MNPC) was established in 2011 to spearhead nuclear power development under the new Economic Transformation Programme. Authorities have envisioned a construction start between 2019 and 2021.
"Malaysia decided to look at nuclear as an option because if you look at our strategic gas reserve in peninsular Malaysia it is depleting. We have already started importing LNG (liquefied natural gas) and import 100% of the coal we use," MNPC chief executive Mohd Zamzam Bin Jaafar told the forum.
"In the next five years, more coal-fired power plants will be built and therefore we are going to import more coal when those plants are in operation. Because of that, we are heavily dependent on fossil fuels."
Indonesia, meanwhile, expects to have a nuclear power plant operational by 2020 or sooner as stated in the National Long-Term Development Plan 2005-25. A presidential decree issued in 2006 indicated that nuclear energy would account for 4,000 MW or about 2% of primary energy and 4% of electricity generating capacity by 2025, according to Geni Rina Sunaryo, director for nuclear reactor technology and safety at the National Atomic Energy Agency (Batan).
"The additional power supply needed by Indonesia to support its economic growth was projected to reach 5,700 MW a year until 2022. From 2022 onward, the amount would double to 10,000 MW a year until 2030," she told the forum.
Nuclear and renewable energy sources will have a combined share of 23% in Indonesia's energy mix in 2025, 25% in 2030 and 31% in 2050, she added.
The Philippines, in response to the 1973 oil crisis, decided to build the first of two units of the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant. Construction began in 1976 and was completed in 1984. But due to financial disputes and safety concerns related to earthquakes, it never became operational.
Energy security considerations have rekindled the Manila government's interest in nuclear power, and plans to refurbish and upgrade the Bataan plant were studied but no definite conclusion has been reached. Nevertheless, the 2008 national energy plan foresees 600 MW of nuclear power by 2025 with further capacity added afterward.
Myanmar reportedly aspires to develop nuclear technology for power generation to "narrow the development gap" as three quarters of its population have no access to electricity at all.
In July last year, the Nay Pyi Daw government said it planned to build nuclear reactors for "research purposes". Its plan to use atomic power goes back to 2007 when Russia, through the company Rosatom, agreed to help design and build a nuclear facility in central Myanmar but the plan has never materialised.
UP IN ASIA, DOWN ELSEWHERE
According to the WNA, China has 23 nuclear power reactors in operation with 26 more under construction. Additional reactors are planned to provide more than a three-fold increase in nuclear capacity from 14.6 GW in 2013 to at least 58 GW by 2020, 150 GW by 2030 and more in 2050.
"The impetus for increasing the share of nuclear power in China is increasingly due to air pollution from coal-fired power plants as most of the mainland's electricity is produced from fossil fuels, predominantly from coal," the WNA said in a report updated last month.
The World Bank puts economic losses due to pollution at almost 6% of China's GDP. The State Council estimated $380 billion would be spent on energy conservation and carbon emission reductions from 2011-15, and that emissions in 2020 would be cut by 40-45% from 2005 levels.
In South Korea, the government targets a modest increase in nuclear generation, albeit from a higher base, to 29% of total generating capacity by 2035 from 23% nowadays. Five new reactors under construction are scheduled to be commissioned from 2015-19 with six additional reactors planned for 2020-24, Moody's Investors Service said in its report about global nuclear generation prospects.
Nuclear power is the second largest part of South Korea's electricity mix, accounting for 31% of gross generation, after coal (39%), and followed by natural gas and oil (26%) hydro and renewables (4.3%).
"Nuclear power remains competitive in parts of Asia, however, where environmental concerns and a high reliance on costly imports of LNG have pushed up power prices and led to a build-out of new nuclear generation," said Moody's.
"[In Asia], China and South Korea have among the most supportive policies on nuclear energy with significant new nuclear construction programmes under way in both countries."
India, according to the WNA, has a flourishing and largely indigenous nuclear power programme and expects to have 14,600 MW in nuclear capacity online by 2020. The country aims to supply 25% of electricity from nuclear power by 2050.
Because India is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty due to its weapons programme, it was 34 years largely excluded from trade in nuclear plant and materials, which has hampered its development of civil nuclear energy until 2009.
"India's dependence on imported energy resources and the inconsistent reforms of the energy sector are challenges to satisfying rising demand. There is an acute demand for more and more reliable power supplies," said the WNA.
The government's 12th five-year plan for 2012-17 targets an additional 94GW in generating capacity. Three-quarters of this would be coal- or lignite-fired and only 3.4GW nuclear, including two imported 1,000-MW units planned at one site and two indigenous 700-MW units at another, it added.
In the United States, meanwhile, low natural gas prices resulting in from shale gas drilling are stalling growth in nuclear generation. Nuclear power accounts for around 20% of US electric power generation, said Moody's, citing figures from the WNA.
But this percentage is likely to fall over the next few years following the retirement in 2013 of 104 reactors or about 4% of total nuclear capacity, and potential retirement of others over the next several years.
In parts of Europe, low electricity prices and subsidised renewable energy sources have severely limited new nuclear development. Meanwhile, government policies are not supportive for nuclear expansion. For example, a proposed law in France limits the share of nuclear output by 2025 and caps installed nuclear capacity at the current level due partly to concerns arising from the Fukushima crisis.
In Germany, the country's 2011 decision to shut down all reactors by 2022 is very unlikely to be changed, Moody's noted.
SLOW REVIVAL IN JAPAN
In Japan where the Fukushima meltdown prompted the shutdown of all the country's nuclear power plants, authorities have given the green light for the restart of two Sendai nuclear reactors on Kyushu Island.
"Now the Nuclear Regulatory Authority is in the final stage of checking each facility and equipment whether or not they will actually meet the very stringent safety standards. Local authorities have to decide if this is good for the community," said Prof Ken Koyama, managing director and chief economist at Japan's Institute of Energy Economics.
"No one knows the exact schedule yet but I think in late March or more likely April the reactors would restart based on the information that I have."
Nuclear in Japan as a percentage of total power generation fell to below 2% in 2013 from 9% in 2010, following the shutdown of all 48 reactors after the Fukushima accident.
"Japan has been supportive of restarting some of the country's nuclear reactors, despite public opposition since the Fukushima nuclear accident," Moody's noted.