Veerathai in at deep end at BoT

Veerathai in at deep end at BoT

New governor to face daunting challenges

The cabinet has nominated Veerathai Santiprabhob as the new Bank of Thailand governor.

Mr Veerathai, who sits on the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), will have the daunting task of steering the economy through difficult times with limited monetary policy ammunition.

If royally appointed, he will head the Bank of Thailand for the next five years after Prasarn Trairatvorakul steps down at the end of September.

He trumped Phatra Securities managing director and head of research Supavud Saicheua, who made the final shortlist on the strength of his presentation. The designated governor had been a top candidate for the post since the race started in May.

At 45, Mr Veerathai is regarded as relatively young by central bank standards. Since its establishment, there have been only three younger governors. The first governor, HH Prince Vivadhanajaya, was 43 when he took the helm, as was Puey Ungpakorn, the most respected of its chiefs. Serm Vinicchayakul was the youngest governor at 39.

Mr Prasarn, the incumbent governor, said Mr Veerathai was technically competent to serve as governor through his educational background in economics and his experience of the central bank's working system from his roles with the MPC and the central bank's board.

He also has management experience in financial markets through working with the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and Siam Commercial Bank (SCB).

"He is regarded as a person of principles and morality through his work with rural and social developments. His vision encompasses both economic and social issues," said Mr Prasarn.

"I think he should be able to work with the central bank without any problem."

Mr Veerathai's age should not be an obstacle because there are other young leaders in foreign countries, while his politeness is a plus, said Mr Prasarn.

Dealing with weaker global trade volume related to GDP growth is one the challenges that the new governor has to face, as the global economy has registered reduced import quantity due to fragile demand and this affected export-oriented countries including Thailand, he said.

Mr Prasarn said inflation dynamics must take external factors into account, while other domestic factors besides inflation must be factored in, such as property and stock markets as well as loan growth ratios amid economic conditions that have become more complicated.

Monetary policy transmission poses another challenge because the central bank has to coordinate with other organisations to deliver effective pass-through effects, he said.

Supervising specialised financial institutions and the nanofinance scheme are deemed as new challenges for the successor because there is a trade-off between public policy implementation and prudential objectives, said Mr Prasarn.

Swelling household debt, public financial literacy, the impact of digital banking and financial system access for small and medium-sized enterprises are other challenges facing the new governor, he added.

Mr Prasarn said the central bank had a flexible framework in place to manage foreign exchange movements, while robust foreign reserves also support the management process.

The baht briefly fell to 33.99 to the US dollar in yesterday's late trade as Greece's debt woes increased demand for the greenback.

Krisada Chinavicharana, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), said Mr Veerathai was well rounded in financial markets with working experience at the Finance Ministry, SCB and the SET.  

The 23rd central bank governor takes the reins at a time of enormous internal and external uncertainties.

Thailand's economy is still faltering after growing by only 0.7% last year, the slowest pace in four years. The possibility of economic growth below 3% this year looms large, while a third straight annual contraction in exports is increasingly likely. 

The imminent interest rate reversal of the US Federal Reserve, high volatility of capital flows, uneven global economic rebound, divergence of monetary policy among major central banks, and Greece's debt crisis are major headwinds, especially if the Greek issue spreads contagion to other members of the 19-nation euro zone.

Amid a spate of growing downside risks to growth, economists believe that the MPC chaired by Mr Prasarn is likely to further ease monetary policy by cutting the benchmark rate to a record low of 1.25% in either August or September. If that is the case, there will be very limited space for further cuts when Mr Veerathai's tenure starts. 

The MPC unexpectedly recently slashed the policy rate to 1.5% in efforts to shore up economic growth and ward off downside risks.

Last but not the least, the new governor must be tough enough to withstand political pressure to retain the central bank as an independent body in managing monetary policy.

The challenge will intensify when an elected government, seeking to boost growth, is installed in the coming years.     

The Bank of Thailand on June 19 made its fourth cut in its 2015 economic growth forecast to 3% from 3.8% predicted in March. The new projection is based on an assumption that Thailand's shipments will fall by 1.5%.

Southeast Asea's second-largest economy is scrambling to gather its recovery pace after being cramped by the pre-2014 coup political upheaval, dismal exports from the uneven global economic recovery, tepid domestic consumption, swelling household debt and weak consumer and business confidence amid the economic uncertainties.

Thailand was once dubbed by foreign media as the Teflon economy due to its resilience to political woes regularly seen since the 2006 coup toppled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Mr Veerathai, a son of former police chief Pratin Santiprabhob, has broad experience in the international, national and private sectors in macroeconomics, banking and capital markets.

After receiving a master's degree and a PhD in Economics from Harvard University at a mere 24 years old, he joined the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington as an economist, which led him to become involved in monetary and exchange rate policies, central banking, payment systems and the financial sectors of several countries. His work at the IMF allowed him to learn about economic problems and face the challenge of finding solutions.

He had first-hand experience in dealing with Thailand's 1997 economic and financial crisis when he returned in 1998 after being approached by Tarrin Nimmanahaeminda, who was finance minister at that time, to become a co-director of the Policy Research Institute at the FPO.

When the country's economy improved, Mr Veerathai joined SCB, the country's third-largest lender by assets, in 2000. His last position there was executive vice-president for strategic planning. In 2009, he jumped into the capital market by becoming the SET's executive vice-president and chief strategy officer, working there until 2013.

His appointment as a member of the MPC since 2014 has brought deeper macroeconomic insights.

Mr Veerathai has also held several prominent positions as a member of the Bank of Thailand's board, the State Enterprises Policy Commission or superboard chaired by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to supervise state enterprises, Thai Airways International's board and as an adviser to the Thailand Development Research Institute. 

Other candidates for the Bank of Thailand governorship who failed to make the shortlist were deputy governor Tongurai Limpiti — the only female candidate in the race — another deputy governor Paiboon Kittisrikangwan and former central bank director of monetary policy Kiatchai Sophastienphong.

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