The US State Department has quietly approved the sale of 16 missiles — plus training — to Thailand in a proposed deal worth nearly US$27 million, or just shy of one billion baht.
Power play: Gen Prayut’s takeover of the country last year has isolated Thailand from the West.
China and Thailand meanwhile began their first joint air force exercise last week, with 180 Chinese officers and pilots operating out of a Thai base used by the US to launch bombing missions during the Vietnam War.
The US missile deal and the newest cooperation between Chinese and Thai forces are the latest successes by the coup-installed junta to attract military support from both Beijing and Washington.
China and Thailand are conducting the Falcon Strike exercise at the Royal Thai Air Force Base in Nakhon Ratchasima, or Korat, until Nov 30.
“For years, indeed decades, this [Thai-Chinese] cooperation would have been not only politically unthinkable, but technically impossible, as the RTAF [Royal Thai Air Force] was almost wholly dependent on the US, while China’s was significantly less advanced,” said Benjamin Zawacki, an American analyst completing a book on the US-Thai-China axis, titled Continental Drift: Thailand at the Turn of a Sino-American Century.
“For the US, it spells another zero-sum loss to an engaged and strategic China,” Mr Zawacki said.
“There is no rivalry between Washington and Beijing for Bangkok’s affections, as such would require Washington being aware and interested in Thailand as geopolitically important.
“The US has not had a coherent policy in either Thailand or Southeast Asia as a whole for two decades, while the Chinese see and treat it as their near abroad.”
GAME PLANS
The Chinese officers and pilots involved in Falcon Strike are being led by senior air force officers at the level of deputy chief of staff. The war games coincide with the 40th anniversary of Thai-Chinese diplomatic ties this year.
Lift-off: The Royal Thai Navy’s HTMS ‘Naresuan’ launches an ESM at Carat 2015.
“The aim of this joint exercise is to increase mutual learning and understanding between the two countries’ air forces, deepen Sino-Thai practical cooperation and increase mutual trust and friendship,” China’s Defence Ministry said.
Falcon Strike’s name echoes previous joint exercises between the two countries, including Blue Strike, which began in 2010 featuring Chinese and Thai marines, and the Strike exercises involving both nations’ armies since 2007.
Before America’s defeat in the Second Indochina War, some 4,500 US Air Force personnel were based in Korat, launching bombing runs over Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. Nowadays, the US and Thailand use the base together during Cope Tiger, one of the Pentagon’s annual multinational military training exercises.
As a result of last year’s coup, “the US’s existing law and policy put limits on levels of military-to-military leadership, but real work happens among soldiers on the ground, and that still >>
>> goes on”, newly arrived US ambassador to Thailand Glyn Davies earlier told Spectrum.
Mr Davies confirmed the Pentagon will conduct a scaled-down version of its annual Cobra Gold multinational military exercise in Thailand next year, despite the coup.
The Pentagon and State Department are also strengthening the Thai military arsenal. The proposed sale of the 16 missiles to Thailand will involve Raytheon Missile Systems, Lockheed Martin and other major US weapons manufacturers.
“The major defence equipment includes 16 Evolved Seasparrow Missiles [ESSM], comprising 14 tactical missiles and two telemetry missiles,” the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced on Oct 29, adding that “additional equipment, training, and technical services” would be included as part of the deal.
“This proposed sale will contribute to the foreign policy and national security of the United States by increasing the ability of Thailand to contribute to regional security and improving interoperability with the US Navy,” the agency said.
“Thailand will use the ESSM to provide ship battlespace self-defence and firepower, which will improve its capability to meet current and future naval threats.
“The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military balance in the region.”
Thailand’s relatively small navy operates some vessels on the Andaman Sea coast. It also patrols the shallow Gulf of Thailand, which leads to the dangerously contested South China Sea, though Bangkok is not directly involved in China’s maritime claims there.
The Pentagon has conducted antiterrorism training with Thai forces to protect US and Thai oil and natural gas platforms in the Gulf of Thailand.
“Because Thailand is not a claimant state in the South China Sea, China has cultivated [Bangkok’s] role as ‘mediator’ — read: ‘ally’ — for several years,” said Mr Zawacki, who is also a lawyer.
“This is ultimately to China’s benefit, as [US President Barack] Obama’s ‘pivot’ to the region remains stillborn,” he said.
BALANCING ACT
“The growing strategic posture of China in the South China Sea dispute is arguably contributing to an increase in defence spending across the region,” said Thomas Withington, editor of two Bangkok-based publications, Armada International and Asian Military Review.
Shaky relations: US Ambassador to Thailand Glyn Davies arrives for a meeting with Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai. Washington has been largely reluctant to engage with the junta.
Withington was speaking at a Defence Industry Collaboration forum on Nov 3 at Bangkok’s junta-supported Defence and Security 2015 exhibition.
US exhibitors hoping to sell weapons-related goods and services at the four-day international trade show included Colt, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamic.
“Our military will continue to fly, sail and operate whenever and wherever international law allows,” Commander of US Pacific Command, Adm Harry Harris, said on Nov 3 at Peking University in the Chinese capital.
“The South China Sea is not, and will not be, an exception,” Adm Harris said, one week after the USS Lassen guided missile destroyer sailed close to China’s artificial islands in the sea, angering Beijing.
Some analysts predict the rapidly improving military, diplomatic and economic relations enjoyed by Thailand and China will weaken Washington’s ties with Bangkok.
Others presume Thailand will balance its affairs in a practical way to extract the most from both giant partners.
In July, the navy announced its decision to purchase three new submarines from China, a procurement deal worth tens of billions of baht. While public backlash forced the deal to be put on hold, observers noted that the decision to source the hardware from China was yet another indication of US policy drift in the strategically vital region.
Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha’s bloodless May 2014 coup emboldened him to become prime minister with absolute power, including immunity for himself and members of his regime.
Support from China and the US is exceptionally valuable for the junta.
“The Thai coup leader, enjoying power, is dangerously coming to think of himself as indispensable,” Human Rights Watch executive director Kenneth Roth tweeted on Oct 31.
Many in Thailand perceive China as a loyal, wealthy elder to be wooed and emulated. Some, however, worry about becoming Beijing’s economic colony and strategic southern route to exploit Thailand’s lucrative ports.
HISTORICAL INFLUENCE
Thailand’s relations with China date back centuries, with Chinese traders boosting this country’s roller coaster economy during times of war, economic misfortune and domestic unrest.
“All the top 10 richest Thais in the 2014 Forbes 500 List were families of Chinese descent,” according to a recently published book titled, A History of the Thai-Chinese, by Jeffery Sng and Pimpraphai Bisalputra.
In 1905, solidarity among Chinese in China and their descendants in Thailand resulted in a 10-week boycott of US goods in Shanghai and Bangkok in protest of Washington’s anti-Chinese immigration policies.
“Chinese dockworkers and coolies refused to unload US goods, including wheat, flour, cigarettes and lamp oil. Chinese importers at Bangkok’s port sent all the boycotted goods back to Hong Kong and Singapore,” Sng and Pimpraphai wrote. “The Chinese in Siam had just discovered their potential as a powerful political force.”
On the advance: Chinese troops practise marching ahead of a military parade in Beijing. China has increasingly been exerting military influence in Southeast Asia despite US plans for an ‘Asia pivot’.
Taking flight: Thai and Chinese air forces are participating in ‘Falcon Strike 2015’ drills at the Korat Royal Thai Air Force Base from Nov 12-30, the first such exercises between the two countries.