Despite changes in its revenue-sharing agreement with the Expressway Authority of Thailand (Exat), the SET-listed Bangkok Expressway Plc (BECL) says an upgraded forecast for vehicle traffic will contribute to 3% growth in revenue this year.
But managing director Payao Marittanaporn said she was wary about profit prospects as BECL's lower revenue share will be fully realised this year.
BECL's share of the toll revenue for the urban expressway system was reduced from 50% to 40% on March 1 2011, cutting its toll revenue last year by 6.44% to 7.30 billion baht. Net profit dropped by 22.91% to 1.39 billion baht from 1.80 billion the year before.
"Normally I am confident in our projections, but not this year," she said.
BECL projects its total revenue (tolls and other income) will increase by 3% this year from 7.65 billion baht last year.
"Last year's performance was as expected, except for flooding that affected us for two months, but both property damage and business interruption can be claimed by insurance," said Mrs Payao.
Last year its subsidiaries closed down six out of 10 tollways, resulting in a loss of revenue. The insurance company will survey lost revenue and the claims will be realised this year.
BECL estimated traffic growth of 4% this year, up from 1.02 million trips per day last year.
"With more political stability, traffic should increase on the weekends, while a rise in investment will contribute to higher economic activities on weekdays. And this year we believe there will be no floods," Mrs Payao said.
Following the Transport Minister's proposal on Monday that Exat cancel the 800-baht deposit for its electronic toll tags, Mrs Payao said of the 1 million trips per day, 30% are easy-pass users in the core business area. But the total usage of coupons was only 15% despite no deposits.
The proposal from the ministry for value-added tax to be paid on expressway tolls will also cause lower usage in the short term, but traffic is expected to return once people see the move is cost efficient, she said.
Easy-pass booths see 800 cars per hour compared with 350-400 cars for toll lanes.
The company expects a five-baht increase in tollway fees next September, in accordance with the Bangkok consumer price index.
Mrs Payao said BECL will issue over 4 billion baht in new debentures this year, with a maturity of three years.
BECL will also invest 200 million baht on ramps to link Jaturathit Road with the Sri Rat expressway this year.
Construction of the 20-billion-baht, 17-kilometre Sri Rat-Outer Ring Road Expressway is due to start next year, finishing in four years.
Shares of BECL closed yesterday on the SET unchanged at 19.50 baht, in trade worth 32.3 million baht.