The exclusion of Thai-registered carriers in the updated list of airlines that are subject to operating bans or restrictions within the EU is nothing to rejoice about.
The omission of Thai airlines in the European Commission's June 25 release of the EU Air Safety List should not be interpreted as a lack of concern for the country's aviation safety lapse, according to experts.
Thailand remains on the EU's watch list for a possible ban after "significant safety concerns", or SSCs, emerged from a February audit by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
"We are not out of the woods yet despite the EU not listing us," a Thai airline executive with knowledge of the issue tells the Bangkok Post.
The EU may see little need for dealing a double whammy to Thailand because only one Thai airline, Thai Airways International, operates regular flights to the EU. THAI has so far survived inspections for safety and airworthiness carried out by the European Aviation Safety Agency, an EU body.
Because neither THAI nor any other Thai-registered airline has applied for rights to operate new flights to the EU, Thailand's status was less relevant when the EU Air Safety Committee met earlier this month to update its ban list.
The EU tends to follow ICAO guidelines associated with SSCs, which have discouraged some states from issuing permits for Thai airlines to launch new flights or to switch aircraft types from those approved before the SSCs were raised.
Japan, South Korea and China were the first to impose such restrictions after March 29, when the ICAO issued the SSCs and put Thai airlines' permissible flights under closer scrutiny.
THAI's international network, which includes 12 European cities, has been subject to more frequent inspections at the relevant airports, particularly in relation to documents and records for aircraft maintenance and crew training.
According to THAI president Charamporn Jotikasthira, "ramp checks" of the airline's aircraft and crew have soared to 50 a month from no more than three during normal times.
The exclusion of Thai-registered airlines from the EU's revised ban list has eased some pressure on Thailand, whose image was worsened by the ICAO's June 18 move to red-flag the country after the Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) failed to meet a 90-day deadline for corrective action.
That put Thailand in the spotlight over its shortcomings, joining the likes of Botswana, Haiti and Angola on the red-flag list out of 187 nations whose aviation standards were audited.
The ICAO had given Thailand a yellow card after the country's poor performance on the February audit.
Unlike the ICAO findings in relation to the DCA, the EU investigation is into Thai carriers rather than the regulator itself.
The EU's findings are of utmost benefit to THAI, as the economic consequences of an EU blacklisting would have been severe, says Alan Polivnick of the international law firm Watson Farley & Williams (Thailand) Ltd.
According to an industry executive, THAI's European routes contribute about a fourth of the airline's revenue, which stood at 204 billion baht last year.
Mr Charamporn says THAI's exclusion from the EU's ban list means the airline will continue to operate scheduled flights to 12 European cities: London, Copenhagen, Frankfurt, Brussels, Madrid, Munich, Oslo, Paris, Stockholm, Zurich, Milan and Rome.
THAI has prepared a "business continuity plan" in all areas in case of a major operational disruption — a reference to critical EU action.
The next hurdle for Thailand is a July 13-19 audit by the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
Given the divergence between the ICAO and EU findings, the outcome of the FAA audit takes on magnified importance, Mr Polivnick says.
If the results are unsatisfactory, the FAA could downgrade Thailand to Category 2 and impose restrictions on THAI — the only Thai-registered airline operating in the US.
The flag carrier could continue its flights to Los Angeles but encounter prohibitions on adding new US destinations or changing the aircraft type used on the existing route.
Moreover, US carriers would immediately have to end code-shares in which a Thai airline is the operating carrier, mirroring what happened in the past with airlines based in the Philippines and South Korea.