IATA: 2016 a banner year for airfares

IATA: 2016 a banner year for airfares

Downward trend to continue from 2015

Customers purchase tickets for Thai Lion Air flights at Don Mueang airport. Having fallen by almost 12% last year, a further decline in global airfares is likely this year, according to the International Air Transport Association. TAWATCHAI KEMGUMNERD
Customers purchase tickets for Thai Lion Air flights at Don Mueang airport. Having fallen by almost 12% last year, a further decline in global airfares is likely this year, according to the International Air Transport Association. TAWATCHAI KEMGUMNERD

Airfares around the world look set to get even cheaper this year after the downward trend seen last year.

Low fuel prices and stiffer competition among airlines are contributing to a further drop in airfares in 2016, according to the latest report by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

It did not specify the rates of decline, but an earlier IATA analysis suggested that the cost of travel and shipping would continue to fall, with average yields for passengers down 5% and for cargo down 5.5% in 2016.

That pace of decline is a deceleration from 2015, when cargo yields were expected to fall by 18% and passenger yields by 11.7%.

Adjusting for currency effects, nominal global fares in 2015 were between 4% and 4.5% lower than in 2014, IATA said.

IATA said consumers would see a substantial increase in the value they derive from air transport this year, although in US dollar terms the measures have been skewed downwards by the sharp rise of the dollar.

New destinations should rise by 2.2% this year, with frequencies up as well.

IATA expects almost 1% of global GDP to be spent on air transport in 2016, reaching almost US$750 billion.

Air travel is accelerating, with growth of 6.9% expected this year, the best since 2010 -- well above the 5.5% trend of the past 20 years.

This is being driven mainly by expected stronger economic growth.

But price is also attracting consumers with the average return fare (before surcharges and tax) of $375 in 2016 forecast to be 61% lower than 21 years earlier, after adjusting for inflation.

Airfares in Thailand also showed a general fall last year with low-cost carrier Thai AirAsia, for instance, witnessing a 3% drop in its average fares to 1,667 baht per sector per passenger from 1,726 in 2014.

The latest IATA report said crude oil prices had rallied in recent weeks, driven by market participants anticipating a tightening in supply.

The recent price of crude oil (Brent) was around 50% higher than its January low point.

That said, the bigger picture is that oil prices are still some 30% lower than this time last year.

Moreover, with storage levels at high, it remains to be seen whether the rally will hold.

Reporting the latest development, IATA said the global air passenger market made a strong start to 2016, with most regions posting record-high passenger load factors for January.

This bodes well for the industry's financial performance in early 2016.

The cargo side of the business made a reasonably solid start to 2016 by its standards, though challenges lie ahead.

The freight load factor remains rooted near a six-year low, keeping intense pressure on cargo yields.

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