Post-Brexit world asks what's next

Post-Brexit world asks what's next

Postcards featuring the World War II British slogan
Postcards featuring the World War II British slogan "Keep Calm and Carry On" are seen outside a newsagent in London on Friday. (AFP Photo)

The world continues to react with shock and confusion to the decision by British voters on Friday to leave the European Union. Markets are in turmoil and political leaders have begun to debate whether the divorce should be quick and businesslike or protracted and acrimonious.

The first major casualty of the referendum on Friday, in which the Leave side outpolled Remain by 52% to 48%, was British Prime Minister David Cameron, who said he would step down in October.

Leaders of the EU will open a two-day summit on Tuesday to grapple with the British decision.

Stocks plunged worldwide as investors stampeded for the safety of gold, which gained more than 8%, the most since the height of the global financial crisis in 2008.

US stocks took far smaller losses than markets in Europe and Asia but were still sharply lower as morning trading began in New York hours after the referendum results were confirmed.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 408 points, or 2.2%, to 17,608 as of 10.20am (9.20pm Thailand time). It was down as much as 538 points earlier. The S&P 500 was on pace for its biggest loss since January, down 2.4% to 2,064. The Nasdaq composite dropped 2.7% to 4,775.

The pound plunged by 10% to a 31-year low as the final returns came in earlier in the day, and the euro also plummeted against the dollar, as the Brexit result caught markets by surprise.

"The British people have voted to leave the European Union and their will must be respected," Mr Cameron said, as the shockwave of their decision sent sterling, global stocks and oil prices plummeting.

He promised to try to "steady the ship" over the next few months but said a new leader should be installed by early October.

"I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination," he said outside 10 Downing Street in London.

The bookmakers' favourite to replace him is former London mayor Boris Johnson, a rival from within his ruling Conservative Party who was the Leave camp figurehead.

EU president Donald Tusk said on Friday the bloc was determined to stay unified and warned against "hysterical" reactions.

"Today on behalf of the 27 leaders, I can say that we are determined to keep our unity as 27," Mr Tusk told reporters in Brussels, adding that "it is a historic moment but for sure not a moment for hysterical reactions".

As the currency markets went into a tailspin, the Bank of England promised to take "all necessary steps" to secure market stability.

"It's a madhouse in here. It has been a bloodbath. Carnage," said David Papier, head of sales trading at foreign exchange house ETX Capital in London.

Voters appeared to have to shrugged off warnings that a Brexit would create a budget hole requiring spending cuts and tax increases once they lose unfettered trade access to the EU.

Britain will be the first country to leave in the history of the EU, the culmination of decades of suspicion over European aims of creating an ever-closer political union.

The vote also threatens the unity of the UK, with Scotland unwilling to follow the rest of the country out of the EU.

Two years after Scotland voted in a referendum to remain in the UK, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said a new independence vote was "definitely on the table" after the rest of Britain voted against the majority will expressed by Scots.

"Scotland sees its future as part of the EU," she said after the vote.

Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, is now faced with the prospect of customs barriers for trade with EU member the Republic of Ireland. Irish republicans Sinn Fein immediately called for a vote on Irish unity following the referendum.

The result will reawaken fears of a domino-effect ripple of exit votes in eurosceptic members that could imperil the integrity of the bloc, already struggling with twin economic and refugee crises.

Dutch far-right MP Geert Wilders and French National Front leader Marine Le Pen immediately called for referendums on EU membership in their own countries.

"The eurosceptic genie is out of the bottle and it will now not be put back," said top anti-EU campaigner Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party, who had promised Britons the chance to retake power from Brussels and rein in high immigration.

"Let June 23 go down in our history as our independence day," he said.

The referendum result means the world's fifth-largest economy must now go it alone in the global economy, launching lengthy exit negotiations with the bloc and brokering new deals with all the countries it now trades with under the EU's umbrella.

European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker has warned the EU will "not be bending over backwards" to help Britain in those negotiations. Analysts say it could take the island nation a decade to secure new trade accords worldwide.

"It looks like a sad day for Europe and the United Kingdom," German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on Twitter.

In a worst-case scenario, the International Monetary Fund has warned that the British economy could sink into recession next year and overall economic output would be 5.6% lower than otherwise forecast by 2019, with unemployment rising back above 6%

Thousands of jobs in the City could be transferred to Frankfurt or Paris, top companies have warned. The Brexit camp argued that the business world will adapt quickly, however, with Britain's flexible and dynamic economy buoyed by new economic partners and selective immigration.

Elsewhere, US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump praised the decision by British voters during an appearance at his golf course in Scotland on Friday and said he saw “a big parallel” to his own campaign.

There are “great similarities between what happened here and my campaign,” Trump said at a news conference at his Turnberry property, wearing a white "Make America Great Again" hat. “People want to take their country back."

During his first international trip as the presumptive Republican nominee, Trump said he hadn’t discussed the Brexit vote with his foreign policy advisers but that “zero will change” in the US relationship with the UK. He also said the immediate drop in the value of the British pound may be good for tourism.

“If the pound goes down they’re going to do more business,” he said. “Let’s see what the impact of that is. I think you’ll see a lot of activity."

A trader reacts on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange where shares plunged in response to the Brexit vote when the market opened on Friday morning. (AFP Photo)

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