LONDON: The British were warned for weeks that a vote to leave the European Union would result in economic pain. Now they'll find out whether it will.
UK financial leaders are scrambling to reassure households, businesses and investors that they can contain the doom and gloom they had predicted in case of a Brexit. The pound plunged to a 30-year low on Friday, raising concerns about price inflation, and shares in the UK's biggest banks and real estate builders posted double-digit declines as economists predicted the country would fall into recession.
Economists slashed their forecasts for Britain, with some expecting a recession and next to no growth next year. That's a sharp reverse for an economy that had been among the best-performing in the developed world in recent years.
Analysts have warned of the possibility of broader knock-on impacts throughout Europe and the world, such as a return to protectionism, questioning of free trade agreements and doubts over the stability of the EU.
In an early sign of problems, Moody's Investors Service downgraded the UK outlook from "stable'' to "negative" within hours of the Brexit vote. The referendum result, it said, "will herald a prolonged period of uncertainty for the UK, with negative implications for the country's medium-term growth outlook".
Moody's also said there was a possibility that the country's Aa1 credit rating would be downgraded. Standard & Poors issued a similar warning about the AAA sovereign rating that it gives the UK.
Holly Miller, 32, said the vote would affect her economic life profoundly.
"I'm quite shocked by it all,'' she said. "I'm just applying for a mortgage so we're worried about that.''
Only the soothing reassurances of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney managed to ease the market carnage on Friday, as he pledged to stabilise markets if needed. But beyond the short-term market turmoil, the concern is what the vote means for the national economy and its 64 million people.
Before the vote, with campaigning in full swing, the British Treasury had estimated that an exit from the EU would cost the country the equivalent of 4,300 pounds ($5,900) per household. Tax receipts would face a 30-billion-pound shortfall that would have to be filled with tax increases on income and inheritance. House prices, the Treasury had said, could be as much as 18% lower by 2018 than if the country hadn't left the EU.
Campaigners for Leave dismissed this as scare-mongering. With the vote result confirmed, the Remain camp sought to shift away from warnings and into damage control: trying to maintain confidence in the business community and among households.
The City of London Corporation, which represents the financial services industry, a big maker of money and jobs for the country, sought to downplay the impact of the vote on the square mile that is the world's second most important financial centre after New York.
"The City of London has thrived as a financial and trading centre for more than a thousand years and will continue to do so,'' Mark Boleat, policy chairman for the Corporation, said in a statement.
"There will be no mass exit of banks and financial institutions from the square mile. While there will be uncertainty as Brexit negotiations go on we are still the financial center of the fifth-largest economy in the world.''
Some companies, particularly banks, had said they could move jobs away from London if Britain leaves the EU. That is likely to cost some jobs. How many is yet to be seen.
The British economy could also find it more costly to raise money. Lower sovereign credit ratings, as threatened by Moody's and S&P, could mean higher borrowing costs for the government, and in the longer term, less money to spend on schools, hospitals and roads.
"The real question now is how badly the EU will punish the UK for this decision,'' said Megan Greene, chief economist at Manulife Asset Management.
Others were looking on the bright side.
At First Property Group, a London-based real estate investment firm, chief executive Ben Habib, who backed leaving the EU, said the vote means Britain would now be able to drive a better deal with the rest of Europe.
Supporters of the Leave campaign had accepted that there was a potential economic cost to leaving the EU, but have claimed it is a short-term price to pay in exchange for greater control of policies such as immigration and borders.
"We now have the foundations for a very good negotiation with the EU,'' he said, while minimising the market turmoil. "The markets are gyrating, but these are gyrations and will not materially affect our economy.''
Habib said the drop in the pound would help British exporters by making their goods cheaper and more competitive in the global marketplace.
Habib's colleague and friend George Digby, however, was less upbeat. He had voted to remain and said the best he could do was wait and see if there is significant economic damage, as his Remain camp had claimed.
"I hope I am proved wrong on that score,'' he said.