TEHRAN: Iranian state television declared incumbent President Hassan Rouhani the winner of the country's presidential election on Saturday, giving the 68-year-old cleric a second four-year term to see out his agenda calling for greater freedoms and outreach to the wider world.
Rouhani secured 57% of ballots cast in the first round of voting, well above the 50% required to avoid a run-off, Interior Minister Rahmani Fazli confirmed at a news conference in Tehran. Chief rival Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline conservative cleric perceived as the favoured candidate of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, took 38.5% and minor candidates the rest. More than 41 million, or 73% of 56 million eligible voters, cast ballots.
The victory by Rouhani is seen as strengthening his domestic mandate to integrate Iran with the global economy. Yet the extent of his success will depend on the cooperation of the Iran’s conservative establishment, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who implicitly supported Raisi during the campaign.
It will also depend on actions taken by US President Donald Trump, who arrived on Saturday in Saudi Arabia for talks expected to focus on ways to contain the Islamic Republic’s regional influence.
Echoing recent elections around the world, the campaign centred on populist claims that ordinary people were being left behind. The race was transformed by the April entry of Raisi, whose background spurred speculation he was being groomed as an eventual successor to Iran’s ultimate arbiter, the 77-year-old Khamenei.
“I voted out of concern that a no-show would benefit Raisi,” said Milad, who headed to a polling station in downtown Tehran late Friday. “His presidency would drag us back to the past.
“Iranians and Iran just started gaining respect in the world under Rouhani and the economy is doing slightly better,” said the 35-year-old, who declined to give his surname. “Even if there’s a long path ahead it’s at least in the right direction.”
Lines at several major polling stations across Tehran spilled into the streets until late in the evening, prompting the Interior Ministry to extend voting hours three times.
Higher turnout has traditionally benefits the more moderate candidates whose backers have been disappointed in the past with the pace of social and political reforms.
“This election boils down to a fundamental choice between two priorities,” said Ali Vaez, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group. “The supreme leader is paving the ground for his succession, while a frustrated Iranian youth is seeking jobs and a move away from crisis to normalcy.”
In any case, Rouhani will now face a more confrontational Trump, who has described the 2015 Iran nuclear deal as a “disaster” and imposed new punishments over the country’s missile programme on the eve of balloting.
Most opinion polls had shown Rouhani, 68, ahead of his main challengers but short of the 50% support he would need to win in a first round. But as the field narrowed and conservatives rallied behind a single candidate -- 56-year-old Raisi -- analysts saw a tight race.
Rouhani and Raisi offered very different answers to Iran’s challenges. Rouhani advocates the foreign investment promised by the nuclear deal but which has been held up by concerns over remaining punitive sanctions.
Raisi and his fellow conservatives have been highly critical of the rule of an elite “four percent", and said they would expand subsidies and focus on domestic industry.
"The business community, especially the private sector, is for Rouhani’s re-election for the simple reason that we need continuity and consistency,” said Cyrus Razzaghi, president of Ara Enterprise, a Tehran-based consultancy. Executives “expect him to be bolder in terms of tax reform and trade liberalisation” in a second term, he said.
In a series of stump speeches, Rouhani attacked hardliners over their opposition to greater personal freedoms, corruption and conservative-controlled institutions that don’t pay tax.
The campaign polarised the electorate, pitting pious traditionalists who shun stronger ties with the West against a middle class that wants a less repressive society and sees foreign investment as a springboard to better jobs.
A Rouhani second term would allow Iran to present its “best face” and protect the nuclear deal by driving a wedge between the US and other signatories, said Vaez at Crisis Group.
But there’s a risk for conservative diehards that “Rouhani, who doesn’t share Ayatollah Khamenei’s vision for the future of the revolution, could influence the succession", he added.