SYDNEY — Prime Minister Tony Abbott survived a confidence vote brought by backbenchers of his Liberal Party who are disillusioned with his performance and, along the way, acquired a new nickname: “Tick-Tock Tony.”
Few could predict how the 100 party legislators would vote at the meeting in Canberra. Even the embattled leader nervously regarded it as a toss-up. But the motion was soundly defeated, 61-39.
The handful of lawmakers who had openly agitated for the leadership spill called attention to the number of yes votes. Mr Abbott promised to do a better job and Luke Simpkins, who orchestrated the move against him, said the backbenchers would give him time to change.
Political commentators and insiders warned that the most recent round of party infighting was unlikely to be the last.
Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young said the clock was ticking for "Tick-Tock Tony."
"If I were prime minister, I would worry about another resurgence by June," said John Uhr, director of the Centre for the Study of Australian Politics at the Australian National University. "People will now give him some time to see if he will change. They might already know the answer to that."
Media speculation grew over a possible coup by Malcolm Turnbull, the communications minister, or Julie Bishop, the foreign minister, leaving the public with a sense of deja vu.
Analysts compared the Liberal leadership crisis to that of the previous Labour government.
"It's exactly how it went down with Rudd and Gillard," said Jonathan Bradbury, a student living in Sydney.
But Mr Uhr saw a distinction. "What is happening now was pushed by the backbench; with Rudd and Gillard it was two oligarchs fighting."
Mr Uhr says it would be fair to say the rank and file who have taken on the prime minister are trying simply to protect the party and their jobs.
Sixteen months into his term, Mr Abbott has racked up a list of broken election promises, policy backflips and delivery delays. Public support for both him and the party has slid, and the Liberals have suffered heavy losses in state elections in Victoria and Queensland.
The latest poll showed a Labor Party leading the Liberals 57-43 per cent.
Analysts said Simpkins and his counterparts in Western Australia are preparing for state elections and fear a similar fate.
By contrast, there was virtually no dissent in the upper echelons of the Liberal Party. Mr Abbott was flanked by Bishop and a host of cabinet ministers as he walked into the party room on Monday.
Weeks earlier, some were forced to admit Mr Abbott had failed to consult them on his widely ridiculed decision to knight Prince Philip of Britain.
The pro-monarchy leader who is seen by some to put personal policy agenda ahead of party commitments was forced to admit that he had erred, and pledged to consult more widely in the future.
The Abbott government has lived up to its campaign promise to halt the flow of Asian refugees to Australia's shores. It also became the first to scrap a carbon emissions tax, has taken a tough stand on Russia over the Malaysia Airlines crash in Ukraine and the lead in the search for Malaysia Airlines MH370, and sealed a free trade deal with China.
But it has yet to oversee significant economic growth and has not lived up to the promise of leaving pensions and health and university costs untouched.
Last week, Mr Abbott said he would scrap a planned paid parental leave scheme.
Voters are also expecting a U-turn on the promise to build new submarines in South Australia as Canberra courts foreign builders. Mr Abbott has taken an unprecedented tough stand on terrorism and joined the offensive on Islamic State in the Middle East.
His less popular decisions have earned him the epithets of "PhoneyTony" or "The Mad Monk" on social media.