Can Prem-style govt achieve 'Thailand 4.0?'

Can Prem-style govt achieve 'Thailand 4.0?'

Those were the days: Prime Minister Prem Tinsulanonda is pictured on Aug 28, 1986, reading his government's policy statement in the House of Representatives. With him are deputy prime minister Bhichai Rattakul (left) and then-PM's office minister Meechai Ruchupan. (Bangkok Post file photo)
Those were the days: Prime Minister Prem Tinsulanonda is pictured on Aug 28, 1986, reading his government's policy statement in the House of Representatives. With him are deputy prime minister Bhichai Rattakul (left) and then-PM's office minister Meechai Ruchupan. (Bangkok Post file photo)

Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha is due today to lead his cabinet ministers and chiefs of the armed forces and police to wish Privy Council president Prem Tinsulanonda a happy 96th birthday, which actually falls tomorrow.

Royally appointed a privy councillor shortly after nearly eight and a half years in power as prime minister, the longest living ex-premier and elder statesman has left a long list of legacies many of his successors have been unable to match.

A former army commander-in-chief who never ran in a general election during his premiership, Gen Prem steered three administrations through global economic turbulence and a domestic boom from March 1980 to August 1988. With the support of the military and top-notch bureaucrats, the economy under the leadership of the 16th premier saw years of double-digit growth and constant flows of foreign direct investment as the country shifted from an import-substitution to an export-oriented economy.

Nopporn Wong-Anan is deputy editor, Bangkok Post.

Thailand was under the "burning bright" (chotchuang chatchawal in Thai) era as a massive amount of natural gas reserves were found in the Gulf of Thailand. The country's eastern seaboard was being developed as a prime industrial estate for petroleum products made from locally discovered oil and gas and imported crude.

Political stability had returned after the decades-long communist insurgency. A bloody crackdown on the student movement in 1976 ended with the government amnesty in 1980 to bring those "misguided students" back from the jungles to become "co-developers" of Thailand.

Large-scale corruption among cabinet ministers was relatively low as Gen Prem, dubbed by the local media as a prime minister with an honest heart and clean hands, was quick enough to replace graft-tainted politicians with new faces. His trusted aides and competent technocrats were put in key cabinet portfolios such as interior, defence and finance to ensure efficiency and effectiveness of policies.

The "good old days" of Gen Prem remain vivid memories for many Thais, especially the business elite and military top brass, despite a couple of failed coup attempts and several assassination bids against him while in office.

That's why we are seeing an overwhelming public acceptance of the draft charter that will weaken political parties (that mostly have no long-term policies) and restore clout to the bureaucracy.

Two years of a protest-free Thailand under the military regime that says it is committed to tackling corruption and dark influences by civilian politicians has given the junta a new record high in popularity, according to various polls. And public trust in politicians is reaching a new low despite the sluggish domestic economy this government is facing.

Average urban middle-class voters who usually have a louder say than their rural compatriots will continue to like a prime minister who is strong and clean, whether he or she is elected or selected.

As the ruling junta is pushing the country out of "the middle-income trap" and toward a value-added economy of innovation and creativity or "Thailand 4.0", political stability and continuity are needed to attract foreign investors and new investment to elevate the country from the heavy industry of our current 3.0 status.

It's a 20-year reform plan that the ruling junta is pushing to transform Thailand status from the past economies of agriculture (1.0), light industry (2.0) and heavy industry (3.0) to Industry 4.0 with the likes of end-to-end digital engineering and Internet of Things-enabled manufacturing.

Such capital-intensive investment would need a stable government with a clear vision and long-term commitment to execute those plans. That's why we see provisions in the draft charter citing the first five-year interim period to allow the military to have more power than elected civilian politicians.

But a post-junta civilian government may not enjoy the same benefits as the Prem administration did. It may receive support from the military if the prime minister is blessed by the men in uniform. But will it enjoy robust economic growth, given the protracted sluggishness of the global economy? Despite a strong bureaucracy, Thailand does not seem to have as large pool of competent technocrats as it used to have during the 1980s.

The creative economy the junta wants to establish should also happen in an environment that tolerates, not suppresses dissent.

Thailand's next prime minister, if he wants to have a similar legacy to Gen Prem's, should take all these into consideration and execute policies that are compatible with the digital world of the 21st century.

Nopporn Wong-Anan

Deputy editor

Nopporn Wong-Anan is deputy editor, Bangkok Post.

Do you like the content of this article?
COMMENT (2)