Jury still out on government's ability to lift economy

Jury still out on government's ability to lift economy

With the Prayut Chan-o-cha government in charge for more than two years, the Thai economy still hangs in the balance. Even though the government has managed to lift the country out of the economic stagnation we experienced before the 2014 coup, it has failed to accelerate growth.

The much-needed economic rebound will depend on domestic political stability, which is needed to shore up public and private investment.

In the current gloomy political climate, the government is facing a test of whether it can accelerate investments and avoid a period of renewed political instability.

For now, people with low and medium incomes continue to bear the brunt of the sluggish economy. Their wallets have become thinner and household debts have grown larger.

Wichit Chantanusornsiri is a senior economics reporter, Bangkok Post.

In 2014, economic expansion stood at only 0.8%. One year after the Prayut government took control, growth remained low at 2.8%. Prospects for this year are predicted to be around 3%.

The positive effects of the rebound have not been felt by most people. Several key industries such as automobiles, advertising, print and broadcast media have continued to shut parts of their operations and lay off employees through early retirement programmes. Unemployment has been the outcome for many.

The average Thai today still suffers economically. Even though the inflation rate stands at a fairly low rate, the cost of living remains high, as do bank loan interest rates.

The result of the constitutional referendum last August implies most voters are still sympathetic toward the regime. Most eligible voters approved the junta-sponsored charter and endorsed the extra question which has paved the way for the selection of a non-elected premier after the next election.

The referendum outcome indicates those voters can put up with the economic downturn and place political stability as their first priority.

They have learnt a costly lesson from the previous political turbulence that paralysed the nation. Gen Prayut, the military leader and the prime minister, has shown his ability to put the Thai political house in order.

On the other hand, many people may blame the weak global economy for sluggish Thai economic growth. Thailand's export sector, the key driver of the economy, has suffered in the global economic downturn. The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) recently predicted the sector will contract 1.9% this year.

Meanwhile, the government has launched economic stimulus measures to accelerate growth. These include 60 billion baht allocated for village funds nationwide, the tambon development project where each district gets five million baht to invest, a handout project that will give extra cash to farmers.

Moreover, the Prayut administration has come up with tax incentives to spur domestic private investment. For example, it has doubled the amount of investment eligible for this year's tax exemption.

These measures have been implemented at a fast pace to shore up domestic investment and stave off a future economic recession.

The government's large financial injection has helped restore domestic spending which can be seen in an increase in the value-added tax take.

However, much still needs to be done to shore up domestic private investment. The NESDB last month predicted private investment will expand by just 1.5% while public investment will increase by 10%. Private investment remains a key factor in bringing about an economic recovery.

If the government can pursue its own 20 investment plans, amounting to a total cost of 1.41 trillion baht, several megaprojects are likely to get the go-ahead next year. These include elevated rail projects in Bangkok and several dual-track rail projects.

The state's megaprojects will draw interest from the private sector. The real-estate sector, for example, can capitalise on the prospect of home buyers looking to buy properties along the new train line routes.

A failure by the government to push these projects forward will disappoint both voters and investors who have waited for them to get the go-ahead.

Many previous governments had similar megaprojects in the pipeline but faced a delay in execution.

Politics, however, is in a state of flux. As a key determinant of the country's economic growth, it is still unclear what a new democracy under the new charter will look like.

The next election is drawing closer, and with it the prospect of political turbulence as a result of the regime's move to seek compensation from state officials, companies and politicians involved in the loss-ridden rice-pledging scheme run by the Yingluck Shinawatra government.

The Commerce Ministry is seeking damages from former commerce minister Boonsong Teriyapirom and other high-level commerce officials for alleged bogus government-to-government rice sales.

A government panel has ordered Ms Yingluck to pay back a sum of 286.6 billion baht. Six former Commerce Ministry officials including Mr Boonsong will be asked to pay back a total of 18.7 billion baht. They also face criminal charges over alleged malfeasance or alleged corruption.

Ordered to pursue compensation for damages under the scheme, top officials at both the Commerce and Finance ministries have been under pressure.

They are worried they might end up the subject of retaliation if the political landscape changes after the next election.

However, they cannot afford to sit idly otherwise they themselves could be charged with malfeasance.

Politics will influence the health of our nation's economy and our personal well-being. It will decide whether we will stay in the economic doldrums or can look forward to brighter times ahead.

Wichit Chantanusornsiri

Senior economics reporter

Wichit Chantanusornsiri is a senior economics reporter, Bangkok Post.

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