'Significant' Apec summit

'Significant' Apec summit

From a forum seen by many as "forgettable", the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit which is to take place in Peru this weekend has gained importance.

The Apec group has been widely disrespected and its summits dismissed as time wasters. It has been ridiculed as "four adjectives in search of a noun". The 21 leaders of the forum have met each November since its founding in 1989. The US State Department calls it "the premier forum for facilitating economic growth, cooperation, trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region". In truth, almost no one can remember an interesting Apec summit decision.

But the election victory of Donald Trump, who has made clear his intention to scrap the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) treaty and US President Barack Obama's decision to abandon plans to ratify the pact -- an act that puts the entire TPP on its death bed -- may underlie events in the Peruvian capital.

Some believe that the Apec summit may now play directly into the hands of China, with its triple-play economic plans for the Asia-Pacific and far beyond.

From the plain agenda set by Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski which covers human capital development, upgrading small and medium businesses, regional food market, and regional economic integration, China's rapid ascendancy in the wake of the Trump victory and TPP's doomed fate promise to turn yawns to diplomatic curiosity and concern.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, whose amicable phone conversation with President-elect Trump has significantly calmed global fears over trade protectionism, already has plans to exploit the Apec summit. This week and next, he will be paying official visits to Ecuador, Chile and Peru, bringing many aides and multiple programmes.

Of immediate interest is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in which China, together with a few more regional leaders, plays a distinctive role. In fact, hugely out-of-date headlines once featured in the battle between the TPP and RCEP for influence.

Now that the TPP is gone, some Apec members realise the need to look for other trade cooperation options. Under such circumstances, the bigger and more comprehensive RCEP, which is the Asia-Pacific free-trade deal, may catch their attention.

But even the RCEP is dwarfed by China's latest influence-seeking programme it calls the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-century Maritime Silk Road -- or One Belt, One Road for short. This is a massive proposal, one of the largest ever. Beijing seeks to gather all of Asia west of Beijing, the entire Middle East except for Iran and Israel, plus all of central and eastern Europe.

Don't forget that there is also the Beijing-organised Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Thailand has already signed on as one of 57 founding members of this AIIB. If it actually gets off the ground and performs as China advertises, the AIIB will dwarf the Asian Development Bank, if not simply sideline it.

For many countries, the Apec summit will potentially be hearing, debating and starting to make important decisions about this new Chinese order as Washington under Mr Trump is preparing to reduce its role in global affairs. But for Thailand and the rest of the Apec group, the Lima summit can be a forum where they can send a message to the new US administration that it needs to stay intact, not withdraw itself, or it will risk missing the train, especially in the fast-growing Pacific Rim region.

Editorial

Bangkok Post editorial column

These editorials represent Bangkok Post thoughts about current issues and situations.

Email : anchaleek@bangkokpost.co.th

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