The latest statistics and statements from the deep South paint a depressing portrait of that restive region. While the military regime places the low-intensity war among its top security problems, it has actually stacked more layers of stultifying bureaucracy on the debilitating violence, now in its 14th year. Nor was there even a shred of optimism from the army commander's message for the new year, saying he hopes to tame some of the violence within a few years.
The numbers compiled for last year by Deep South Watch and others show that, on average, one person died of insurgent-related violence every day. Twice as many violent incidents and attacks were aimed at civilians than security forces, the supposed "enemy" of armed groups and gangs. Last year, the number of terrorist-type attacks, chiefly with bombs, was higher than ever.
The government added a powerful new "wise man's council" of 13 advisers, led by Deputy Defence Minister Udomdej Sitabutr to the mix. Local people interviewed by this newspaper were not impressed. His authority is unclear. So is that of the peace talks chief, Gen Aksara Kerdphol. If civil action and negotiations with the insurgents' Mara Patani group are unclear, the military response is arguably worse. The victory over the insurgents is not in sight, not in the near future. Army chief Gen Chalermchai Sittisart emphasised that point by claiming that violence will ease "over the next few years".
There is a growing feeling the government lacks an actual strategy for the deep South. With 7,000 lives lost, it is pressing Mara Patani to agree to "safe zones" where everyone supposedly would agree to refrain from killing. While such local ceasefires could lead to wider peace, there is no sign the insurgents support the government's plan.
Like every other region and province, the deep South is irrevocably Thai, and belongs to the nation. It is not possible to restore the old Patani state as some insurgents may aim to do. No country, movement or group has any legitimate claim to the southern districts and provinces. Neither politics nor force can separate it.
Almost all people in the deep South know, believe and appreciate this. Like so many regions and districts, the deep South has a unique history and culture. People celebrate their background and history in numerous ways. From language to architecture, and from food to religion, the people of Yala, Narathiwat, Pattani and Songkhla mark their southern heritage.
They also mark their Thainess. The deep South is one of the most politically aware regions. Typically, southern villages record extremely high rates of voting in local and national elections. Two political parties originated there, with MPs serving in many cabinets.
The insurgents and their political surrogates in Malaysia often pretend none of the above is true -- or if it's true, it doesn't matter. Mara Patani is a new face on a very old attempt to convince southern people and the world that the South should be separate from Thailand. It is an illegitimate claim. Leaders of the groups formerly known by "revolutionary" names like Pulo and Barisan should realise this.
As in all regions, the people of the far South have legitimate, local grievances. While government, local leaders and civil-society groups work to solve problems elsewhere, insurgents and their few supporters cause more grief with their violence. Mara Patani could serve as a force to bring grievances to the fore, and help to solve them. The nation will neither be defeated nor worn down by the often savage tactics that ruin thousands of lives a year.