The Prayut Chan-o-cha government is tipped to go ahead with its controversial submarine purchase after long delays.
Both Prime Minister Prayut and his deputy Prawit Wongsuwon strongly defended the 36.5 billion baht project despite public scepticism that the submarines will be a waste of taxpayers' money.
Gen Prayut insisted the three submarines "are cheap" while his deputy assured that the purchasing process is transparent.
According to Gen Prawit, the Office of the Permanent Secretary for Defence is re-examining details of the purchase contract signed by the Thai government and Chinese government to ensure absolute accuracy.
Once finalised, the contract will be submitted to the cabinet for approval which means any time from now.
Under the purchase plan, the Royal Thai Navy will spend 13.5 billion baht for one Chinese-made submarine in the first stage, while the purchase of two additional subs worth more than 20 billion baht has been approved in principle.
From the regime's viewpoint, the submarines are necessary as they will strengthen the country's military might. More importantly, it is trying to convince us that we need the subs because other countries in the region have the items in possession.
It's the same argument as those of previous governments which eventually decided to shelve the purchase plan to avoid controversy. And this fact makes it difficult -- if not impossible -- for the regime to justify the purchase.
To begin with, the regime should know that it's obliged to clarify the threat to our national security that makes the subs so necessary -- the task it may not be possible to do given the fact that we do not have real enemies, or involvement in a large-scale war that requires the use of submarines. Not now or in the future.
This is because Thailand is not a party of regional conflict, in particular the South China Sea, which may develop into real warfare.
In fact, we are surrounded by Asean friends which are abided by the principle of "One community, One identity".
More importantly, some critics note that Thailand and China relations have become closer militarily after the 2014 coup because Beijing provided us with support while the Western powers turned against or condemned the regime for toppling the civilian government This may be another reason for the administration to think it's obliged to return the favour to the regional power. But the regime may forget that as China is a major actor in the South China Sea conflict, military ties with Beijing may make some Asean friends uncomfortable. That would be a high price.
Besides, it may be helpful to look back and learn the lesson from the purchase of the aircraft carrier HTMS Chakri Naruebet in 1997. Due to the fact that the operational cost of the carrier is very expensive, the 8.4 billion baht ship is mostly docked. It also has no aircraft. It's very likely the submarines, if purchased, will end up the same as the carrier.
The decision to establish the submarine squadron and other submarine-related facilities is a mistake from the beginning.
While we agree that the navy must be better equipped, any purchase must be fit with its mission which largely includes combating human traffickers, illegal fishers, and activities related to relief operations.
When Gen Prayut said the subs are cheap (the same amount will enable us to buy second-hand items from Germany), he must know that a single baht spent on any unused or underused item means the product is too expensive, not to mention the submarines that cost more than 30 billion baht.
As the government has complained a great deal about budget shortage for some health and social schemes, it should not have the luxury to purchase any submarines which are likely to end up like the aircraft carrier. We would like to see such a huge amount of money used for a project with real public benefit.
The Prayut administration should keep in mind that it is merely an interim government, which rules the country in the absence of a checks and balances mechanism. With such ad hoc status, it's not appropriate for the regime to undertake big spending or initiate any project that will be a big burden to the the successive administration.
Favourable public ratings of the government, in particular the prime minister, may make Gen Prayut feel confident and dare to make a decision without listening to critics. But he should be aware that public ratings are not carte blanche for him to enjoy the luxury to do anything without accountability.
This is because the public mood can swing in the opposite direction if he makes a wrong decision. The submarine purchase is a case in point.