Last week in Cambodia, China and Asean held their first meaningful discussion in years on the South China Sea. There were actual proposals for a Code of Conduct (CoC) on the table. Unfortunately, the Siem Reap talks ended like others in the past -- with a notable exception. All 11 parties agreed to take the draft CoC papers home, discuss them, and meet again in a reasonable time.
The talks among senior foreign ministry officials from China and the 10 Asean countries are significant. China has refused in the past to sign a final Code of Conduct that would provide ways to enforce peace in the South China Sea. Beijing's refusal always has been based on the many competing territorial claims in the Sea. China has always maintained it would discuss these only on bilateral terms. Thus, Beijing's return to CoC talks is important on its own. It does not, however, advance the serious security problems in the region.
The South China Sea is a tinderbox. China claims virtually the entire sea and every atoll and reef under it. Taiwan and five Asean countries -- Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei -- also have credible claims. In addition, the United Nations and all members claim to support the right of free passage through this sea.
China is the odd man out of every discussion. Beijing claims all of the South China Sea, even including waters that every reasonable person and the UN Law of the Sea say belong to others. In the past 20 years, Beijing has occupied the atolls and reefs and in the past five years has embarked on one of the most ambitious island-building projects ever seen. In places that literally supported only a couple of fishing shacks in 1995, China has built islands with runways, ports and housing.
In addition to this, Beijing has begun placing land-based weapons on these islands. The airfields clearly are designed for fighters and bombers, while bunkers are equally obviously for artillery and missiles, both anti-ship and surface-to-air.
China's claim that all of this is to ensure the right of free passage barely passes a laugh test. But Beijing has protested against recent US Navy tours through the Spratly Islands group where it has done the bulk of its building. With US$5 trillion (172 trillion baht) of ship-borne trade passing through this region annually, including Thai commerce, it is vital to keep the South China Sea open to all.
That depends on keeping it peaceful. In the past, numerous small, deadly naval battles have taken place, mostly within the Spratly group. The massive Chinese buildup presents clear and present danger to peace. So long as China refuses to commit to the long-standing Asean proposal for a CoC, there is no greater chance of armed conflict in all of Southeast Asia than currently exists within the South China Sea boundaries.
In previous years, Thailand has taken a lead in promoting a CoC. However, this is altered by the lamentable twin decisions by the military regime to favour China while decreasing the Thai profile in diplomacy. At the Siem Reap talks, Singapore was the sole Asean member without a territorial claim that stood up to China. The Philippines and Vietnam took issue with the Chinese stance. Thailand was notable by its silence.
Resumption of the talks is not yet scheduled. A bright spot exists from the pledge by China to try to complete talks on the outline of the CoC by the end of June. Thailand should be working hard to support Asean's demand for a CoC, and emphasising the Chinese pledge to establish a working outline.