Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is sending the wrong signals about an election. While members of his government and supporters of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) regime openly discuss when polls are likely, Gen Prayut refuses. On this issue, the premier appears to be saying he does not know or does not care -- or both -- when an election might be held. He must prepare a more acceptable answer.
Credit Gen Prayut with staying consistent. Asked about elections, he has retreated for three years into the same answer. He says he has a roadmap, and we're moving along that road towards national polls at the end of it. The problem is that the size of the roadmap has continually expanded, with the length of the road repeatedly lengthening. At the moment, after three years and four months under autocratic rule, no end is in sight, to the road or to military rule.
Increasingly, the public is becoming impatient and even uneasy. Every major political party -- notably Pheu Thai, the Democrats and Bhumjaithai -- has asked for an election date, or at least a time frame. The prime minister quite logically has laid out a non-answer answer. It is that there cannot be an election until organic laws are in place. This process has been raised numerous times and is well known. The schedule to write, debate and adopt these laws is clear. But still the premier refuses to commit to an election, even in the most general terms, such as "after the organic laws are fully in place".
The current, and legally unchangeable deadline for the Constitution Drafting Committee to draft and submit these necessary organic laws is 240 days or approximately eight months after the constitution promulgation on April 6. This is a far-away deadline for fairly simple law proposals. Still, that is the timeframe by which the last organic laws are due. These could be controversial, dealing with the makeup of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), the duties of a brand new "reset" Election Commission and the complicated mechanics of how to run the next election.
But the constitution is clear, even if Gen Prayut's roadmap is not. The organic laws must be operating by June.
This is the reason for so much speculation about a 2018 poll. Recent political talk posits a vote somewhere between mid-November and early December. Still, the premier refuses to acknowledge this. And his continued, coy refusal even to discuss a likely election date is causing concern. While he remains generally popular, his poll numbers continue to edge down. Now foreign diplomats are asking publicly for guidance on a likely election time. For certain, Gen Prayut will face questions from both US media and politicians if his visit to Washington goes ahead.
Political leaders and media voices are correct. It is time for the prime minister to revisit his roadmap, and work out the path to the end of the highway. Gen Prayut has been clear that he intends to "take all the time necessary" to perform certain reforms. But the time for that is growing short, and most preparations already are in place.
It should be noted that the two top men in the prime minister's retinue already promised that elections would take place this year. Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon and the government spokesman Lt Gen Sansern Kaewkamnerd guaranteed a vote before the end of 2017. Of course they were wrong, but also are not held accountable.
Understandably, the man responsible for overthrowing the last government insists on being the one to decide the destiny of the next. This is why Gen Prayut must come out with an election date or clear timetable.