THAI POLITICS
Don't underestimate the red shirts' wrath
- Published: 3/04/2009 at 12:00 AM
- Newspaper section: News
That the relative calm in Thai politics has been shattered in recent days has caught many by surprise.
All smiles, for now... Red-shirted supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra wave clappers during a protest.
For the past three months after a year of brinkmanship and turmoil, it seemed as if the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was finding its footing with its stimulus packages and restoration of confidence at home and abroad.
It overcame a no-confidence debate, and its mantra of moving Thailand forward found receptive ears among those who have grown weary of the prolonged political crisis.
As many had a vested interest in moving on and putting the crisis behind, it became convenient to downplay the resilience and potency of the red-shirted foot soldiers under the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD).
These UDD rank-and-file, mostly from the provinces, have been massing on Bangkok's streets to show that they will not be systematically denied and dismissed, that they believe in the righteousness of their cause and the force of history on their side.
To underestimate them, as their opponents are wont to do, is to intensify the ongoing polarisation and court a potentially cathartic transformation that may lead to unpredictable outcomes.
Led nominally by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has virtually been a cyber leader of the opposition from exile and a phantom menace to his sworn enemies, the red shirts are emboldened and more coherent this time around.
Their learning curve is steep, their stage speakers charismatic and effective. Their strategy to raise the stakes by presenting damning evidence and opening new battlefronts against Establishment figures, naming names and pointing to misdeeds that produced the military coup in 2006 and its aftermath.
They have sowed doubt and dissension among the ranks of the police, the military, the public, even in the People's Alliance of Democracy (PAD), the UDD's arch-nemesis.
Their substance and tone are folksy and provincial, peppered by country music and rural metaphors and symbols. Technology and new media tools enable them to disseminate and spread.
The most daunting challenge of the UDD red shirts is staying power. Their numbers have not swelled to the six-digit range as pledged.
From the lower rungs of the socio-economic strata, their followers often have to be bussed in and fed throughout, some paid for lost opportunity. Their financial coffers may be shallow, constraining their movement's longevity.
But their messages about Thailand's myriad social injustices have resonated more than their opponents are willing to admit.
For the countless fence-sitters in this high-stakes face-off who think and feel that something is just not right about Thailand over the past three years, the red shirts' platform is the singular venue to express grievances and demonstrate disenchantments.
For Thaksin, of course, this new ball game, which is not just about going after the Abhisit government but also isolating and castigating key privy councillors while elevating the King, is a familiar self-serving megalomania.
Still a masterful populist and demagogue in his phone-ins and video links, Thaksin is pushing different buttons and taking the offensives on multiple fronts in an effort to regain his lost wealth and power.
He appears to be posturing for a deal. His long shadow over the UDD undermines the movement's credibility and middle-class appeal.
While Thaksin pitches himself as the saviour on a white horse in these dire economic times, he is increasingly portrayed by the red shirts as a symbol and source of inspiration.
The UDD stage leaders have increasingly drawn a distinction between the reds and Thaksin. To them, this is all about the restoration of the majority's will under democratic rule. He needs them completely but they need him decreasingly as their movement solidifies and entrenches. Emerging from Thaksin's tentacles is yet another major challenge for the red shirts.
The UDD's more practical obstacle is how to achieve their concrete but convoluted aims that range from the removal of Mr Abhisit's coalition government and new elections to the resignation of seemingly compromised privy councillors and the re-introduction of the 1997 charter purely through mere street protests.
Large public protests on their own have created necessary but not sufficient conditions to overthrow sitting governments in the past. The catalyst would have to come from somewhere. Herein lies the reds' dilemma.
Without the Establishment backing that was seen behind the PAD last year, the UDD red shirts can hardly effect the changes to the status quo so long as the authorities remain restrained and patient in their response.
Inaction and calculated passivity from the powers-that-be may well stymie the red shirts' intensity and potency. This means their D-Day, slated for April 8, may come to naught. This is why they keep attacking Establishment figures in provocation, with vengeance, backed up by substantive revelations and crucial testimonies.
At issue is how long these Establishment figures, who are compelled to answer for being evidently both above and within Thai politics, can bear the heat.
It would be easy but mistaken to marginalise the red shirts as mere Thaksin lackeys, manipulated and uninformed. Their needs and grievances are real. Lumping them with Thaksin's self-aggrandisement and dismissing them as an unsustainable nuisance will further galvanise them, inflaming their discontent. The gravest danger to Thaksin's opponents is the growing distance between the red shirts and the fugitive former premier. Dialogue, recognition and workable accommodation are in order.
If the red shirts' disaffection is left to fester further, their increasingly organic movement may grow into its own, fed by insults and fanned by suppression, to pose a challenge to the Establishment in proportions previously unseen.
The writer is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.
About the author
- Writer: THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAK
