THAI POLITICS
Normalcy requires a semblance of equal justice
- Published: 16/04/2009 at 12:00 AM
- Newspaper section: News
The doomed defeat of the red-shirted protesters under the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) against the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has restored calm and order in the streets of Bangkok after a day of rioting that resulted in two deaths and scores of injuries.
The red shirts have evidently lost the battle, but their war against what they see as gross injustices in Thai society between the haves and have-nots, between the traditional elite and the governed, will continue as long as they are unrecognised and unaddressed.
As a demonstration of widespread sentiment against the status quo, the UDD was able to mobilise tens of thousands of mostly poor and underprivileged demonstrators, backed by parallel protests by red shirts in major provinces in the north and northeast regions.
Since their street campaign began on March 26, their ranks swelled into the several tens of thousands, encircling Government House and branching out into other areas of the capital.
Worked up by pent-up anger over what they see as systemic injustices over the past few years, they ultimately went out of control. When the red shirts began their day of mayhem and anarchy in Bangkok on the Thai New Year on April 13, in an effort to provoke the government and the army to overreact, they became uncontrollable and self-defeating, overestimating their ability to generate a spontaneous nationwide uprising.
Their moral high ground and their crusade for justice evaporated, replaced by public anger and a growing right-wing backlash.
As Mr Abhisit has overcome this popular uprising, a litmus test for his four-month-old premiership, he and his backers still appear reluctant to respect and recognise the claims and grievances of the red shirts. Mr Abhisit was decisively assisted this time by the army's pliant high command, which was decidedly indifferent over a different set of protesters last October.
The entrenched pro-establishment forces will now be tempted to see the fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra as the sole force behind the reds. Now that Thaksin has been further disgraced and discredited during the red shirts' surge and downfall, they may want to conclude that all is normal, that the recent disturbances were just a passing nuisance.
With Thaksin's credibility shot, the reds will now be forced to come into their own. If their cause was real and lasting, they will have to find a way to regroup and locate new leadership. Their rebellion harks back to the 1910s and 1920s, when a series of revolt against the status quo were crushed without accommodation until a group of gutsy rebels succeeded in introducing constitutional rule in 1932.
To be sure, the reds represented more than Thaksin, who was certifiably corrupt and manipulative of the recent rebellion from exile. Their quest for majority rule in a genuine democracy should no longer be marginalised. As the stage leaders of the red shirts went after privy councillors who they deemed to have violated the constitution by masterminding the Sept 19, 2006 military coup and blatantly taking sides since, the attacks on the privy councillors will now pause because the reds have thrown in the towel.
Yet this issue may now have been etched into the minds of many who are either afraid or unwilling to speak out at this time. It can be swept under the carpet but it may well resurface.
For his part, Mr Abhisit has stood down the red shirts who have castigated him on stage for days, culminating with a savage attack on his official car.
The question now is what lessons Mr Abhisit will take from the short-lived rebellion. He has a knack for saying the right things that tend not to happen. His call for justice for all consistently fails to address the legal infractions of the yellow-shirt protesters from last year. His sense of justice apparently starts from January 2009 when he took office, but not seemingly before then.
Having presided over the reds' demise, the prime minister may simply lack the wherewithal to understand their rise and rage.
What he should do now is to reach out to the reds. He can visit and listen to the detained UDD leaders, and consider and incorporate some of their demands and grievances, assuring their dire fate is dealt with justly through due process of law.
In hindsight, the reds' rise was bound to happen due to the disparity of Thailand's socio-political hierarchy and the asymmetry between the status quo and changing times. Their efforts came to naught this time, but the anti-establishment sentiments behind them are likely to simmer and fester until they find an outlet somewhere else, sometime down the road.
The undercurrents against establishment forces should not be underestimated. The lack of recognition and accommodation will make these undercurrents pent-up and dangerous.
The onus for the way ahead now rests on Mr Abhisit and his supporters. The reds' miscalculated gamble has made their months-long movement futile. What is needed next is the willingness of the establishment forces to accept, address and accommodate the reds' sense of injustice and inequality.
Otherwise the demands for greater social justice and share of the pie may well reappear in other shapes, forms and colours down the road.
- The writer is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.
About the author
- Writer: THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAK
