LET IT BE
PM not taking chances as red shirts crank up engine
- Published: 28/08/2009 at 12:00 AM
- Newspaper section: News
Nothing to fear but fear itself - this saying is attributed to US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in his first inaugural speech. On coming into office faced with the economic crisis of the Great Depression and needing to rally support, President Roosevelt said: "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself - nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyses needed efforts to convert retreat into advances."
Without fear, one can overcome obstacles, and move forward.
Similarly, although not as grandiose, Chalerm Yubamrung, the de-facto opposition leader of the Puea Thai Party, has said many times, "Kwaam klua thum hai seum" (fear leads to demise). Fear can lead to indecisions or wrong decisions, and to be an effective leader one must not fear.
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is facing fear. Whether he will become a victim of his own nightmare or controller of fear able to utilise it as a political tool, remains to be seen. But suspicions arose when he decided to invoke the Internal Security Act through a cabinet resolution earlier in the week, while the government's actions so far during the past seven months have been one of reacting to whatever ousted ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra is doing.
Is that action classified as reacting with fear, if at all? And what has caused Mr Abhisit to harbour fears, if indeed he does?
Mr Abhisit says the Internal Security Act is intended to contain the protest rally of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) or the red shirts this coming Sunday. The question everybody's now asking is: Is there a real threat to stability? Are the anti-government protesters going to resort to violence, as they are being accused of already?
The general feeling is that the rally's objective is to feign in the psychological warfare the red shirts and Thaksin are waging. It is designed to crank up the pressure on a weakened prime minister and his coalition government. Partly to keep them off-balance, Thaksin on Monday invited people through Twitter to join him for lunch at a favourite noodle shop. He showed up via the internet, demonstrating that he is in touch with the common Thai in a down-to-earth manner, while stealing the limelight from another event across town - the birthday well-wishing at Privy Council president and ex-premier Gen Prem Tinsulanonda's house.
The government could do nothing to stop the broadcast even though Thaksin later reported that his Twitter account was being hacked, which might be just a ploy. But the government definitely lost face especially after the mishap on Sunday, when Mr Abhisit could not get his weekly television address on air properly due to "technical" difficulties.
On the UDD's part, this Sunday's event is also intended to carry on the momentum of the red shirts' successful rally to submit a petition for a royal pardon for Thaksin. The UDD wanted to demonstrate that it could conduct its activities in a calm and peaceful manner. A lesson has been learnt from the Songkran riots, that violence did not help to further their cause, it only made them lose public support.
To be fair, at this stage there is no real threat from the UDD. Thaksin's supporters cannot create chaos on a scale that could lead to the overthrow of the government, although they may wish they could with all their hearts.
With unbiased assessment, Mr Abhisit and his team must have known that fact very well. But Mr Abhisit and his spokesman, Panitan Watanayakorn, cited "intelligence" reports which suggested otherwise.
There is a Thai saying, Khien sua hai wua klua, or to draw a picture of the tiger to put fear in the cow. In this case, is the government using this strategy to create "fear" of the red shirts and reinforce the public perception of Thaksin as the evil of all evils?
Since there are signs that the coalition is falling apart, resorting to that strategy will uphold the administration. Mr Abhisit's debacle in the appointment of the new police chief has caused widespread dissatisfaction within many groups and factions who propped him up in the first place. The only thing that has kept them going is the annual budget which could be passed in parliament in the next few days. After that, a break-up is on the horizon.
To create fear is a classic political tactic. If the enemy is still alive (and well) we must all stick together and hang on, no matter how much we despise one another. We can't let the red shirts dominate, and we cannot go into the election either because Thaksin may win.
However, that scenario is the least worrisome.
Throughout modern Thai political history, there have been periods marked by bloodshed in the streets. This occurred on Oct 14, 1973; Oct 6, 1976 and during the May 1992 incident.
Looking back, all three events were marked by a lapse in intelligence reports, found later to have been either manipulated or exaggerated, which led to a bloody crackdown and change of government through coups d'etat.
The Thai people during the 1970s were conditioned in an atmosphere of a "red scare" with the threat of communist domination. Student protesters were branded as communists who wanted to change the status quo and overthrow the monarchy, an accusation that resonates till this day. Most democratic movements are almost automatically classified as "leftist".
Take for example, the Oct 6, 1976 incident. Intelligence reports were said to indicate that university students were armed communist insurgents shooting out from within Thammasat University compound. Finally, the government of M R Seni Pramoj, then Democrat leader and prime minister, was caught in the turmoil and lost control. It was eventually overthrown by the military, which grabbed power as people killed one another in the streets due to the high emotions whipped up through disinformation.
Mr Abhisit must take caution not to fall into the same trap of history. Thaksin, ever so sensitive, has smelled something in the air and has given a warning to his troops.
There is always risk in a highly charged power play in Thai politics, where anything goes and it may not always be in a democratic manner. If that be the case, then maybe Mr Abhisit has more to fear than fear itself.
- Suranand Vejjajiva served in the Thaksin Shinawatra cabinet and is now a political analyst.
About the author
- Writer: Suranand Vejjajiva
