Catch me if you can, but you don't want to, do you?

Opinion » Opinion

COMMENTARY

Catch me if you can, but you don't want to, do you?

Published: 22/11/2009 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News

Does anyone actually think that the Thai authorities want Thaksin Shinawatra arrested? If they wanted Thaksin arrested, wouldn't he already have been arrested?

Could it be that the reason he hasn't been arrested is simply because they don't want him in custody?

Why launch a coup when he was in New York? Did that mean he was not supposed to be arrested in the first place? Why did he pack more suitcases than Imelda Marcos on his trip to the UN meeting in New York in September 2006? Was it because he knew there was to be a coup? That it has been arranged and he was informed by the coup makers ahead of time? Why was he allowed to attend the Beijing Olympics when the court had already convicted him and he was in Thailand, in the grasp of the Thai authorities?

The term political decorum is key to understanding Thai politics. Certain things are just a matter of time honoured tradition. When a coup is launched against you, good political decorum dictates that it's time for you to go away quietly. Retire to your billion baht home, your mansion in the Swiss Alps and live out the rest of your days in luxury. After all, you've worked tirelessly for years in stealing from the country. Don't make a fuss. Just fade away. It's good political decorum.

You've been in charge because you're allowed to be in charge. There's a prior arrangement. You're removed because you've broken a prior arrangement. You've been naughty. So you have to go. Someone else has to replace you to continue stealing from the country.

A military coup in Thailand is simply a tool of up-keeping political decorum. The only time when a coup turns bloody, is when there's a third party involved _ someone else who could not abide by the act.

For example, in the May 1992 coup by army commander Suchinda Krapayoon, the Chartchai Choonhavan government was set to fade away quietly. Why? It's simply because the late former Prime Minster Chartchai had good political manners. Violence broke out in the streets and gave rise to Bloody May only because someone else wasn't willing to play ball _ Chamlong Srimuang.

But Thaksin Shinawatra? He's a bad boy. He has no manners. Not only did he break a prior arrangement while he was prime minister, after the coup, he just won't go away quietly.

Dear readers, Thaksin had already returned to Thailand during the administration of his nominee Samak Sundaravej. The Constitutional Court found Thaksin guilty of wrong-doing. He asked if he could go to the Beijing Olympics and said he would return to face his punishment. They said, yeah, okay, see you soon.

Now, isn't that ridiculous? Could it very well be that the verdict was just for show? That they really didn't want him arrested? That they, once again, gave him a chance to fade away quietly?

One may say that the Samak Government saw to it that he was able to leave the country. I don't think so. We well know the Samak Government was as potent as a 70-year-old who couldn't find his Viagra. They couldn't order the police to give a traffic ticket, but army generals could _ and that's the point.

So why did the authorities keep lett-ing him go?

Readers know well that I am no fan of this former prime minister and that I think he is a dangerous megalomaniac, but one thing we have to give to him. Thaksin Shinawatra is a fighter. One doesn't become this rich and powerful if one isn't a fighter. One couldn't have turned the landscape of Thai politics upside down and swept an entire election if one isn't a fighter. Thaksin Shinawatra is a fighter. Certain people did not count on that.

Because Thaksin is a fighter with a lot of cash in his hands, naturally there are those willing to fight with him. Mob for hire has been a time-honoured occupation in human civilisation since the days of the Romans. Which brings us back to why the authorities do not want Thaksin arrested.

Dear readers, imagine Thaksin in handcuffs on Thai soil. Just imagine it. What would happen? The red shirts would make the Songkran incident look like a picnic in the park. There would be blood in the streets. Thailand, politically and economically, cannot afford that. The Thai authorities don't want to arrest him. The Thai authorities don't have the stomach for it.

Likewise Thaksin. Although he's a fighter, he's not a warrior. A fighter fights for rewards. A warrior fights for beliefs. If he were a warrior, he would gladly extend his wrists to the handcuffs. Then let's have it out in the streets and may the man with the most cash win. Or else, the tanks can come charging in.

So if the fear is civil war in the streets, the game is not to defeat Thaksin Shinawatra.

The game is to defeat the red-shirt movement because without them, Thaksin will have no support base.

The best way to defeat the red shirts is, of course, by the Democrats winning the next general election. Because democracy is the only legitimate argument the red shirts have in support of Thaksin and against the Abhisit Vejjajiva government. If the Abhisit government wins, then the democracy argument will be moot.

Which is why Thaksin and the Puea Thai Party are doing their best to agitate and undermine the Abhisit government, pressuring him to dissolve the parliament and call for an election. Because they believe that the earlier the election, the better chance of a Puea Thai victory. It's a matter of baht and satang.

Which is why the Abhisit government is doing its best to delay the general election. They need to take time and gather as much popular support as possible by handing out populace incentives. It's also a matter of baht and satang.

When the time comes, if the Democrats do not win, then we all may have to answer to the people who are really in charge of this country: The military.

Email: voranaiv@bangkokpost.co.th

About the author

: Writer: Voranai Vanijaka; Position: Editor

Keep this article in your social bookmark:

Latest stories in this category:

Share your thoughts

For more candid, lengthy, conversational and open discussion between one another, use our Forum

Report objectionable comments click here. Include: discussion #, commenter name, comment date / time as it looks on the page. Example: discussion 15: 09/01/2009 at 10:00 AM.

passerbee

Discussion 42 : 27/11/2009 at 03:58 AM42
every time i read how another phone-in or vid on youtube was taking place i felt like watching a little boy crying for attention. a thailand acts like a mother who doesn't know when to ignore the attention whoring (excuse me for this). thaksin's behaviour seems like that of another spoiled thai first son.

give him attention = give him power.
stop building a myth of thaksin's evil superpower and he'll fade away.
noi

Discussion 41 : 26/11/2009 at 10:26 PM41
It is incredible to have some one with low knowledge and morality to write a piece in a national newspaper.
1) Thaksin's record on developement of Thai social, economy and welfare is second to none.
2) Thaksin is the first Thai politician who fought the election with coherent manifastos and delivered all that he promised.
3) For better or for worse Thaksin operated with in democratic rules,unlike his so called OPPOSITION
4) Thai military according to one US ambassador's report 'do not expect to be able to protect its own boarder' It is so corrupt and top heavy ie more chief than indians. Therefore one can concludes that Thai military is only good for controlling its own citizen for political end. Their existance is to support polical power for the status quo.
Voranai your low level intellect article can not diverse all these facts. Do I remember rightly Thaksin priased you for your good look-shame he could see your brain!
David

Discussion 40 : 26/11/2009 at 04:42 PM40
Impossible: Discussion 36

Clearly the reds are financed by the opposition's leader former PM Thaksin and one could also assume partly by Pua Thai off shoots. That seems obvious, as is their goal of getting this cobbled together, non performing coalition to keep it's promise and hold elections.

I have to disagree with you regarding the PAD protest groups being made up of self funded middle class, well off professionals who can afford to sit around government house and the airports at their leisure. These people may have shown up for a day or two here or there, but they had to tend to their business. The core PAD masses were bused in from the South, (did you see the pictures? ) and fully funded by Sondi Limthokul. On the street they were known as the styrofoam people. When the PAD sent in the meals 500 baht was on the bottom of the dish. Clearly they were not masses of well educated, middle class professionals and management.

Khun Voranai has hit the nail on the head with his observations. There were ample opportunities to bring former PM Thaksin back to Thailand, but no one has the stomach to deal with the results. As more time passes after the September 2006, it becomes more obvious it was a huge mistake that not only did not solve anything it in fact created national and international problems even the most devious coup plotters could not have imagined.

We can only hope that red, yellow, blue, etc, all remember that they are all Thai and there is enough power to go around for everyone. All they need to do is start talking and put the country's interest above their own. Well, we can always dream.....
BKK observer

Discussion 39 : 23/11/2009 at 11:56 AM39
Sorry if someone has already mentioned this.

Voranai is wrong about the timing of Thaksin's conviction. Thaksin was not convicted before he left for Beijing. He was convicted after he had already skipped bail.
Andy

Discussion 38 : 22/11/2009 at 10:23 PM38
Thailand needs to move on as a country and stop living in the past. Thaksin is history! I just hope when the next election is called that who ever is elected I hope the people except the result. I live in a democratic soceity and I sometimes don't like who is in power but at the end of the day majority rules and that's the democratic way!
Manfred

Discussion 37 : 22/11/2009 at 05:30 PM37
Mr. Voranai, I think, you are right: the military is in charge in Thailand.
Why not? Who says, so called Democracy would do a better job for the People?
Conflicts occur always when "One wants something." and "No one dares to say No!"
As long as there are not enough people who dare to say "No!" to the many "Shameless", may be, the majority of Thai people have to suffer for another century or so.
impossible

Discussion 36 : 22/11/2009 at 04:24 PM36
Disagree completely. PM Abhisit gov't definitely wants to catch the Lying Fugitive and let Justice happen and let the country have closure and move forward.

If anything, its Reds themselves that don't want Thaksin to get caught. They generate a lot of income by participating in Red rally and cause some trouble. How many million Thaksin have to pay for each noodle meeting, each stadium rally? And how much money can people who go to Red rally get. Was it worth it for 500 Baht to set yourself on fire?

So different than PAD, where they are mostly well off people with their own businesses or in upper management, and don't get paid to attend. That is why PAD rally could last nearly 2/3 of a year.

REDs can actually get Thaksin 's money back to the country. This is exactly why RED (yes, and especially Thaksin's supposed arms and legs Pheu Thai) and even his mouthpiece Noppadon Pattama, don't want Thaksin to get caught. REDs want to get the income.
Frank

Discussion 35 : 22/11/2009 at 04:16 PM35
This article is based on a wrong assumption that the government is an immutable thing. The current government is against thaksin. The Samak and somchai governments were working for Thaksin... duh!

So, of course Samak let him leave the country to "see the Olympics"... I was just a nominee of Thaksin so why would have kept him in Thailand? Thaksin was free to do what he wanted back then as the government back then was controlled by his supporters.

I m sure the current Democrat led government would not let him flee and would catch him would they have the chance and I also believe they just do not want to take out Thaksin on foreign land by non-internationally acceptable standard. Moreover that would also most likely generate outcry and violence here in Thailand.
If Thaksin was arrested in Thailand by normal mean - like the first time he came back under Samak government, I do no think that it would create bloody unrest as it did not create any at the first time.

So my conclusion is that I believe the current government wants to arrest him in a proper way, following good standard and also to not provoke unrest here. And they also want to buy time for the next election which is a byproduct.

So it seems like the democrats have a solid strategy would there not be 70 billion baht at stake. With that much money at stake extreme actions might arise but let's hope Thaksin is not that crazy as to want his power back at the expense of human lives.
mikey

Discussion 34 : 22/11/2009 at 04:09 PM34
Donald Waters, Discussion 33:

"The military?... And why not?"

"Thailand has had more than enough time to prove whether it is mature enough for democracy."

So you call 18 millitary coups a chance?

You are cleary living on another planet.

A fascist one at that.
Donald Waters

Discussion 33 : 22/11/2009 at 03:00 PM33
The military?... And why not?
Thailand has had more than enough time to prove whether it is mature enough for democracy - and it seems very clear now that it is not.
Don't like the idea myself, but maybe the country is better off having someone with very big sticks telling it what to do. Maybe when the people finally realize that this is the most likely option, they might start to grow up and throw off the shackles of the past - both historical and recent.

1 2 3 4 5 Next Last

Name (required)
E-Mail (will not be published) (required)
Choose your avatar
Your comment
Valid code (required)
As a courtesy to our readers, please use proper punctuation and correct spelling.

Catch me if you can, but you don't want to, do you?