The premature explosion of an explosive device in a rented apartment in the Thai capital on Feb 14, exposed an alleged plot by apparent Iranian nationals to carry out an assassination campaign, believed by Israel to target its nationals.
A papier-mache float depicts President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with a dynamite marked ‘‘nuclear programme’’ in his mouth, during yesterday’s traditional Rose Monday carnival parade in the German city of Dusseldorf.
The attack followed two incidents the previous day. In the Indian capital New Delhi, Tal Yehoshua Koren, the wife of the Israeli defence attache, was wounded when an explosive device targeted her vehicle. Meanwhile, in the Georgian capital Tbilisi, an explosive device was discovered and defused underneath the vehicle of a local driver at the Israeli embassy.
Israel immediately claimed the attacks were linked and accused Iran of being behind them _ a charge Teheran has denied. However, Iran, or an allied militant group such as Hezbollah, remains the prime suspect. In addition to the apparent Iranian nationality of the suspects detained in Bangkok, Iran had recently threatened to avenge a series of unexplained attacks on personnel connected with its nuclear programme, which it blamed on Israel and its allies.
On Jan 11, Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan and his driver were killed in Teheran when an unidentified motorcyclist attached a magnetic explosive device to their car. This was the seventh apparent attack targeting individuals and facilities linked to Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programme since January 2010, although Iran has claimed the incidents at its facilities were accidents. These incidents came amid mounting international concern that Iran was close to achieving a so-called nuclear "breakout capability" _ the point when a nation can begin weaponising nuclear material should it so desire _ a development Israeli officials have frequently stated they would consider an "existential threat".
In response to these unexplained incidents, Iran has accused Israel _ along with the United States and the United Kingdom _ of engaging in "government-sponsored terrorism" in a bid to derail its nuclear programme. Senior political and military leaders have repeatedly threatened to retaliate. On Jan 15, Iran's deputy chief-of-staff, Brigadier General Massoud Jazayeri, stated: "The opponents of [Iran's Islamic] Revolution and the nation's progress should have no doubt that the punitive response to the US, the Zionist regime [Israel] and their criminal accomplices will be delivered [at] an opportune time."
INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS
In the Feb 13 Delhi attack, Mrs Koren sustained significant injuries and her driver and two passers-by were also wounded, when her vehicle was targeted with an explosive device by an unidentified motorcyclist as it paused at a traffic intersection. Mrs Koren told Israeli media she recalled "seeing the motorcyclist who apparently threw something in the direction of the car". However, subsequent reports indicated the device was attached to the vehicle with a magnet and detonated seconds later. Forensic reports claimed no circuit board or battery had been found in the device, suggesting it had been manually triggered as it was emplaced on the car.
Meanwhile, in Tbilisi an attack was averted when Roman Khachaturiani, a local employed as a driver for the Israeli ambassador, discovered an explosive device attached beneath his personal car when he drove to work in the morning. Initial reports described the device as a grenade wrapped in a plastic bag taped to the vehicle, but subsequent reports referred to explosive material which officials and the driver himself described as being "stuck to the car with a magnet". A senior Georgian Interior Ministry official claimed the device's size indicated it was intended to target the vehicle's passengers, and could have hurt passers-by, but "was not powerful enough to damage the embassy even if the car had been parked close to the building, which it was not". It was not clear how the device was supposed to be triggered.
The following day in Bangkok, an explosive device detonated apparently prematurely in a rented house in Bangkok.
Following the India and Georgia attacks, Israel responded immediately by claiming they were linked, and that they were perpetrated by Iran. This wasn't unexpected, given Iran's recent threats to deliver a "punitive response" to Israel and others it considered behind the assassination campaign targeting its nuclear scientists. But the speed with which Israel was prepared to state unequivocally that Iran was responsible, was unusual. Less than two hours after the Israeli Foreign Ministry announced the first reports of explosions in Delhi and Tbilisi, President Benjamin Netanyahu stated: "Iran, which stands behind these attacks, is the largest exporter of terror in the world."
The Indian and Georgian governments were considerably more circumspect, and speaking two days after the Delhi attacks, an Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman stated, "The Indian government does not have any evidence pointing to any individual, entity, organisation or country being involved in Monday's blast, so far." Nevertheless, unconfirmed reports indicated that behind the scenes Indian intelligence was focusing its investigation on Iranian and Lebanese individuals.
Meanwhile, Iran's envoy to India, Seyed Mehdi Nabizadeh, categorically denied Iran's involvement, stating: "I don't know how they [Israel] can assume within the short time of one hour who has done this."
Speaking the day after the Bangkok attacks, Israeli ambassador to Thailand, Itzhak Shoham, said the Bangkok devices employed "almost the same system that was used in Delhi and in Tbilisi, which leads us to think that they are connected". Mr Shoham added that while the targets of the alleged Bangkok cell remained unknown, "we can assume from the other experiences that we [Israel] were the target." Meanwhile, the same day, Israeli Minister of Defence Ehud Barak claimed the Bangkok incident "proves once again that Iran and its proxies continue to perpetrate terror".
Mr Barak's reference to Iran's "proxies" was notable given that a dual Lebanese-Swedish national with alleged links to Hezbollah, Hussein Atris, had been detained by Thai authorities in Bangkok on Jan 13 and charged with possession of prohibited substances.
Thai authorities adopted a similarly reserved stance to their counterparts in India, when National Security Council head Wichean Potephosree stated: "We haven't found any links [to the Delhi or Tbilisi attacks] but we are still investigating. We admit there was a magnetic component, aiming at individuals, but the origin of the magnets still has to be investigated."
Meanwhile, Iran continued to deny involvement. Also speaking on Feb 15, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast claimed instead that "elements of the Zionist regime [Israel] are responsible for these terrorist acts" in a bid to malign Iran. Although he did not elaborate, in the past Iran has repeatedly accused the US, UK and Israel of using Iranian opposition militant groups _ specifically the Mujahideen-e-Khalq and Jondollah _ as proxies in a covert war against Teheran.
CONSEQUENCES
While there is not yet conclusive forensic evidence linking the three incidents, Israel's assertion that they are connected is not unreasonable, given the circumstantial evidence. Similarly, given that the Tbilisi and Delhi attacks had clear links to Israel, Mr Shoham's assessment that the Bangkok cell ultimately intended to strike Israeli targets will also likely prove correct, and appeared to be confirmed on Feb 16 when Thailand's police chief stated they believed Israeli diplomats were the target.
With Israel thus the apparent object of an international assassination campaign, it was inevitable suspicion would fall on Iran, given its threats to carry out precisely such retaliatory operations. The arrest of individuals carrying Iranian passports following the Bangkok attacks provided the first tangible link.
Nevertheless, at this point in time, Teheran remains by far the most likely perpetrator, with the attacks seemingly intended as a warning to those behind the covert campaign in Iran that it can retaliate in kind. Should Teheran prove to be behind the attacks, it would appear to have succeeded in demonstrating it has the capability to mount coordinated covert reprisal operations in multiple countries.
However, given that such a capability was already assumed, it is questionable whether the attacks have strengthened Iran's position, particularly since it seems to have demonstrated a surprising degree of strategic and tactical ineptness in their execution. In addition to providing Israel with a renewed opportunity to call for tougher measures against Iran _ which it did on Feb 16 when, speaking in Tokyo, Mr Barak claimed there was "a need for more effective and paralysing sanctions" _ the attacks also risk hurting Iran's relations with its allies.
Although India maintains good relations with Israel, it is also one of Iran's most important supporters, and has refused to heed calls for New Delhi to join US and European Union sanctions on Iran's nuclear programme. Furthermore, India is currently Iran's largest oil buyer as well as its main supplier of rice. As such, carrying out such a controversial operation on Indian soil represented a considerable gamble, and Israel has already stated that it hopes to capitalise.
In addition to strategic consequences, it can be argued that the poor execution of the attacks at the tactical level has not enhanced the reputation of the organisation responsible, nor demonstrated any need to revise existing assessments of Iran's capabilities. The Tbilisi operation appears to have been poorly targeted, with the device emplaced on the personal vehicle of a local embassy driver, rather than an official vehicle. Reports indicate the vehicle never approached the embassy itself, and even if the device had actually detonated, it would have posed no risk to Israeli nationals.
Meanwhile, the premature explosion which derailed the Bangkok plot was also not indicative of a high degree of operational expertise, particularly given that C4 is an extremely stable plastic explosive that is actually quite difficult to detonate. The Delhi attack was better targeted, and the most credible of the three operations. Nevertheless, whatever the inadequacies of the strikes, the perception that Teheran is responsible has undoubtedly exacerbated the already mounting tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear programme, and international efforts to curtail it.
With further covert operations expected against Iran's nuclear and ballistic weapons programmes, these attacks apparently indicate that Iran is prepared to escalate its response in return.
Will Hartley is head of the Terrorism & Insurgency Centre, IHS Jane's.