South could see army at Yingluck's throat

South could see army at Yingluck's throat

Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha and Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra seem to be getting along with each other very well on the surface with no conflicts that could possibly derail efforts toward reconciliation. But that does not necessarily mean the two see eye to eye on everything.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is pictured with army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha as she visits flooded areas in Ayutthaya last year.

The reality is that the army commander is not happy with Ms Yingluck and her government in their new effort to end the violence in the far South.

Gen Prayuth has never shied away from voicing his opposition to the idea of setting up a special administrative zone called Pattani Maha Nakhon in the three southernmost provinces which was promised by the Pheu Thai Party during its election campaign.

Deputy Prime Minister Yutthasak Sasiprapa also tabled it in talks with the National Security Council (NSC).

The army chief strongly objected to the move, saying the proposal was sensitive and it did not serve the needs of southerners. His preference is clear that he wants to use existing mechanisms to solve the problem.

Another issue which annoys Gen Prayuth is the prime minister giving Thawee Sodsong, secretary-general of the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre (SBPAC) sole responsibility to hold informal talks with separatist leaders. This move prompted the army chief to urgently consult his deputy Gen Dapong Rattanasuwan and other generals in charge of the South as dialogue with separatists goes against the army's stance.

"What are the government and the Pheu Thai Party doing? On one hand, they have held talks with separatist leaders. On the other hand, they are pushing for a special administrative zone. They might have a big plan in mind," a source in the army said.

"How could Pol Col Thawee meet with the insurgents? Does he not know the army's position?" another source close to the army chief said.

The plan to start a dialogue with insurgent leaders initially took shape in the NSC led by secretary-general Pol Gen Wichean Potephosree with the army unwillingly being part of the process.

A panel was set up comprising the SBPAC, the army, the Interior Ministry and Police Special Branch Office. The four agencies were supposed to represent the government in the talks but Ms Yingluck later changed her mind and assigned Pol Col Thawee to take sole responsibility for the task of negotiations.

The selection of Pol Col Thawee is believed by some to be due to his close ties with ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra and his experience on the ground in the troubled region.

In the eyes of the army chief, the plan could be a desire by Thaksin to find a new way to solve the problem as the army has made no progress over the past eight years.

So far, the army has admitted that it has no clue as to who the real masterminds of the insurgency are due to outdated intelligence data used by the security agencies. This was the same issue the army had in mind when it it queried the assignment of the SBPAC chief.

"How can Pol Col Thawee be so sure that the leaders he will talk to are real ones who can order the end of the violence?" an army source said.

And there is no guarantee that peace and stability will be restored if the special administrative zone is set up because Pol Col Thawee contacted only the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN). In reality there are more factions in the border region including the BRN Coordinate.

The point which upset Gen Prayuth the most was the government bypassing him by putting Pol Col Thawee in charge of the initiative, despite the fact that the army is the main force in tackling the southern problem.

"Gen Prayuth said he had never had any idea of having a high-ranking official talk with insurgent leaders. He normally used officers on the ground to make contact because the army has no duty to negotiate. Its main duty is to use force and undertake a campaign to win the hearts and minds of the local people," the source said.

Pol Col Thawee had also crossed the border to talk with Malaysian agencies. A team of police and his staff also talked to Thai workers at Thai restaurants in Malaysia using a secret budget to gain information. That led to the next step of starting talks with key insurgent figures who demanded the special administrative zone, the source said. "That's why the government tried to push this issue. But the army opposed it," the source added.

Another source at the Defence Ministry said that the decision by Ms Yingluck to use Pol Col Thawee in the talks with the separatist leaders was to make the plan more flexible than using a team. The mandate given to him by the prime minister also made him more credible, the source added.

"Of course, there is no guarantee that the insurgent leaders Pol Col Thawee talked to were real. But we have no choice to resolve the problem in the South. We have to include everything such as dialogue and the special administrative zone plan," the ministry source said.

In addition to dialogue, Thaksin has sought help from Malaysia to launch economic development projects as another means to solve the problem. He has sent "representatives" to talk with former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad and current premier Najib Razak. Ms Yingluck also discussed the same idea with Mr Najib.

"So far nothing has moved forward with this issue and there have also been no positive responses from Malaysia. The bottom line is we cannot rely on help from other countries. We have to do it on our own," the source said.

The source added the army has also embarked on covert and overt missions to solve the problem including lobbying the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) not to raise the southern issue at its meetings as the insurgents want to internationalise the issue by getting both the OIC and United Nations involved in the matter.

"The army will not surrender an inch of Thai soil in the three southern provinces," the source said.

What the government is doing raises questions over Thaksin's motive in the three southernmost provinces.

And it could underline Gen Prayuth's suspicions about the sincerity of Thaksin, the Pheu Thai-led government and the prime minister, as the army leader is not sure what the government will do with the army and the country.

In addition to the southern issue, the problem of land and maritime territorial conflicts with Cambodia is waiting to test the government in terms of how it looks after the national interest.

They are issues to watch as they could develop to become a conflict between Gen Prayuth and the army on one side, and Ms Yingluck's government and Thaksin on the other.


Wassana Nanuam reports on military affairs for the Bangkok Post.

Wassana Nanuam

Senior news reporter

Wassana Nanuam is a senior news reporter covering military affairs for the Bangkok Post.

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