While UDD leaders and followers demand justice, Thaksin Shinawatra carefully pleads for reconciliation; and apparently the two cries are in conflict. Nonetheless, Thaksin hopes monetary compensation will soothe the reds' anger. You can't bring back the dead or reattach an amputated arm, but bank notes can dry many tears.
The theme of the UDD gathering for the anniversary of the May 19, 2010 crackdown was best echoed by one red leader, Suporn Attawong, who cried from the stage: ''We have to drag the murderers into jail. We have to execute them.''
One UDD leader after another, railing against injustice and using confrontational rhetoric, was met with thunderous applause, between breaks for singing and dancing. Then, via a video link, the ousted former prime minister tried his best not to spoil the fun.
Thaksin's message was subtle, but clear: reconciliation is the priority. ''The time for arguments is over,'' he said. ''It's time to come together for peace.''
He urged the red shirts to make a sacrifice: ''Brothers and sisters, I understand there are pains. But we must save personal issues for later. We must think first of the whole.''
Thaksin gave them a reason for this sacrifice: ''If there's reconciliation, then there's a chance for me to come back and do good things for my brothers and sisters''.
He provided an incentive for this sacrifice: ''Brothers and sisters, those who suffered will all be compensated.''
He toed the line carefully: ''Brothers and sisters, we must have justice also.''
Then this past Wednesday, the Pheu Thai government made the first compensation payouts totaling 577 million baht to victims of political violence between 2005 and 2010. This chain of events suggests careful planning.
Many of the recipients are deserving, innocent bystanders. However, many were lawbreakers who critics argue do not deserve compensation. Not everyone is happy, as every baht comes from taxpayers' money. There is a stipulation that the recipients must drop their lawsuits against the state.
According to reports, Payao Akkahad and Pansak Srithep, whose daughter and son, respectively, were killed during the unrest, crossed out this clause to express their disapproval. Contrast that with a red shirt guard who remarked that he was getting about 600,000 baht for being shot and that he was satisfied.
''How can we express dissatisfaction with the government we elected? We gave them our hearts, so whatever amount is to be given, we should be happy,'' the man was quoted as saying.
Regarding Thaksin's reconciliation plea, Mr Pansak summed up the situation best in an earlier quote: ''Certainly, it's not fair for our family. But the 91 deaths are perhaps a minority compared to hundreds of thousands of supporters who really love Thaksin. So the damaged parties like us have to sacrifice for the Thaksin supporters too.''
Regardless of whether the recipients are deserving or happy about the having to forfeit their right to sue, the integrity of the compensation payouts should not be in any doubt. It is bribing UDD supporters into a reconciliation that could possibly bring Thaksin back home.
''Of course we want him to come back,'' said one lady from Ang Thong province during last Saturday's gathering. ''But it might not be necessary right now. He already does a great job managing the country from abroad.''
''Yingluck is already doing a great job on his behalf,'' said one lady from Ubon Ratchathani.
When asked about the failings of the Pheu Thai administration, the group of red shirts all agreed that the flood started before the government took office, that PM Yingluck had done a great job in combating the flood crisis and that the present political, social and economic woes are understandable.
''Yingluck is very intelligent and very capable. She's our first female prime minister,'' said the lady from Ang Thong. ''She just has to take a year to get used to the job. We are very proud of her.''
Any woes can be conveniently blamed on the usual suspects. As UDD leader Mr Suporn said: ''Real power is not in the hands of the government. It's still in the hands of the ammart (elites).''
The love and the strong bond between the UDD masses and the Shinawatra clan are undeniable. Any justice versus reconciliation conflict is but a minor squabble, soothed by the pretension that everything is OK, as well as the lucrative compensation payouts. Not everyone is happy, but as long as the UDD majority and the leaderships are loyal to Thaksin, then it matters little.
However, at the end of it all, as long as the UDD continues to cry for justice, the traditional elites might not be willing to open their arms. Therefore Thaksin might not be able to return to Thailand _ hence the dilemma.
Justice, as echoed last Saturday, is punishment for Abhisit Vejjajiva, Suthep Thaugsuban, the generals and the so-called ammart; and that the feudal, elitist ruling system must be brought down. The former is unlikely to happen at all; the latter not any time soon.
Reconciliation, according to the plea of Thaksin, is to make peace with those very people whose heads the red shirts scream for; the very system they want to bring down.
Could there be a break between Thaksin and the UDD? Opponents of Thaksin would love to think so, but no, at least not because of this rift.
Thaksin is the face, the patriarch. He's provides the inspiration, the organisation, the logistics and the resources. No movement can succeed without any of the above. If PM Yingluck gets wise and ropes in the key people and resources, she could very well replace Thaksin, becoming the matriarch, leaving her brother in limbo between Dubai and Phnom Penh.
But that would be un-sisterly and is unlikely to happen.
The UDD needs Thaksin, just as Thaksin needs the UDD. Without the red organisation, Thaksin would lose the most powerful political tool in the democratic system _ the mob.
As well, if ''justice'' is actually served, then the UDD will be minus a big cause, a stirring passion _ and a movement without a big cause, a stirring passion, becomes increasingly irrelevant. Just ask the yellow shirt PAD.
But Thaksin must be grinding his teeth and scratching his head.
If the UDD believes things are already great with PM Yingluck as the figurehead and Thaksin is managing the country wonderfully from abroad and that justice must come before reconciliation; then who really needs Thaksin back?
If Pheu Thai politicians, allies of smaller parties and government bureaucrats are fine with trips to Dubai to seek titles, favours and finances, again, who needs Thaksin back home?
If the ammart clique and everyone else have come to terms with Pheu Thai in government, but with Thaksin in perpetual exile, then the status quo might very well be maintained, because nobody would need Thaksin back home. It's a tangled web this one, and Thaksin has to carefully untangle it to return home. Otherwise, he may have the victory, but not the crown, figuratively of course.
The UDD's passion for ''justice'' may or may not wither, but if the man in (wherever he is right now) wants to come home sooner rather than later or never, he has to sell the promise to his followers that justice (or even a reckoning) will surely come, as soon as his feet touch Thai soil.
The UDD plans to gather again next Saturday at Thunder Dome. Given the justice versus reconciliation bribery debate now raging, it will be interesting to see the message leaders deliver.
Contact Voranai Vanijaka via email at voranaiv@bangkokpost.co.th.