The "last war" declared recently by People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) leader Sondhi Limthongkul has not yet started.
People’s Alliance for Democracy protesters led by Sondhi Limthongkul, inset, are stopped by security officers as they try to force their way through police lines to block a route to parliament. The blockade has forced an adjournment of the House meeting until next Tuesday. KITJA APICHONROJAREK
The ugly and shameful events in the chamber of the parliament perpetrated by Democrat MPs in a desperate attempt to scuttle the contentious reconciliation bill of former coup maker Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin and the street protests organised by the PAD and Dr Tul Sitthisomwong's multi-coloured group to prevent MPs from getting into the parliament to deliberate the bill and three others are either the actions of children at play or the prelude to a bigger storm.
Yet it will be the business sector that gets hit hard first if the current political conflict escalates and turns violent _ and industry leaders have already expressed serious concern. The Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and the Thai Bankers Association are set to discuss the political situation tomorrow.
Noting that the business sector has still not fully recovered from last year's flood crisis, FTI secretary-general Sommart Khunseth said Thailand's export-driven economic growth would hit a snag and foreign investors' confidence in the country will drop substantially if the situation gets worse.
Meanwhile, Sittiwatchara Chivarat, president of the Thai Tourism Business Association, said foreign tour companies had expressed concern over last week's political events although none have cancelled group visits and hotel bookings to Thailand yet.
Business operators are not over-reacting. Their concern is justified. There are real causes of concern that the political conflict will escalate _ if not turn violent _ in the near future given the mutual hostility and deep mistrust between the two polarised camps: the Pheu Thai Party and the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship on one side, and the Democrat Party, the PAD and the multi-coloured group on the other (although the three are separate entities and are not as united as their opponents).
Just consider the remarks by some of the key players in this latest round of political conflict over the reconciliation bills and constitutional amendments and you will be able to sense their mood and gauge the political atmosphere _ that none of them are truly interested in reconciliation except for the sort that fits their vested interests.
The Democrat Party has announced it will go all out and resort to any means necessary to block the reconciliation bills that it claims are a tool to undermine the judiciary, even if it means the party's image or reputation will suffer.
The PAD, meanwhile, will play a cat and a mouse game as it aims to kill off the bills. PAD co-leader Chamlong Srimuang said the group will keep a close watch on parliament to find out when the reconciliation bills are to be debated in the chamber. Yellow shirt protesters will then immediately spring into action to block MPs from meeting to discuss the bills.
At the height of the PAD's protests last week, Pheu Thai list MP Jatuporn Prompan told the red shirts of a conspiracy to overthrow the government in a coup and urged them to be on the alert for a putsch.
In a fiery address at the Thunder Dome in Nonthaburi's Muang Thong Thani on Saturday night, fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra told his red shirt supporters of a plot by the Constitution Court to steal power from the government and urged the parliament to defy the court.
The Constitution Court last week ordered the House to suspend any deliberation of the charter bills pending its ruling on the constitutionality of the attempt of the Pheu Thai Party to rewrite the charter. It ordered that vetting of the constitutional amendments, scheduled for tomorrow, be suspended.
Several academics have criticised the court, accusing it of interfering in the affairs of the legislature.
Former senator Panas Tassaneeyanon urged House Speaker Somsak Kiatsuranont to defy the court's order saying there is no need for the parliament to obey the court and it must insist on the principle of "the supremacy of the parliament" in considering parliamentary affairs.
He also suggested Pheu Thai MPs move to impeach the court judges.
Thammasat University lecturer Kasien Techapira said there is no law empowering the court to interfere with the affairs of the parliament. He said the court cannot impose any punishment against those who defy its order.
With the Constitution Court's decision to enter the debate, the political conflict has evolved. It is no longer limited to the two political camps but also now includes the court, which has always been viewed with deep distrust by the Pheu Thai people since previous rulings against Pheu Thai's predecessors _ the now defunct Thai Rak Thai and People Power parties _ and against Thaksin.
It will be interesting to see if Mr Somsak defies the court and lets the House finish the third and final reading of the bills as urged by Thaksin. It will also be very interesting to see how the court and Thaksin's opponents react if the court order is defied.
That will probably ratchet up the political temperature by a few degrees even if the bills are stalled indefinitely.
Pheu Thai underestimates the strength, conviction and capability of the Democrats and the PAD in their handling of the reconciliation issue.
Yet the decision to put off a debate on the reconciliation bills by the House speaker, with the consent of Pheu Thai, is a sensible one to defuse political tensions.
But given the present circumstances with all the key political players _ be it Thaksin, PAD leader Sondhi, Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva and even Gen Sonthi _ being blinded with self-righteousness and reluctant to listen to opposing views, there is little hope for reconciliation. Instead, the pressing issue that should be discussed as a priority before reconciliation is political sanity and sensibility which should first be restored in all the key players.
Veera Prateepchaikul is a former editor, Bangkok Post.