Every time the country is bogged down by political crisis, the spectre of a coup seems to be the first thing that emerges.
Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha, left, and Supreme Commander Tanasak Patimapakorn guarantee there will be no coup to quell the renewed political tensions. WASSANA NANUAM
What has happened in the country in the past has seen the generals view power plays by people on the streets as a means of breaking political deadlock.
The past two decades have shown that their theory was mainly correct, judging from the coups on Feb 23, 1991 and Sept 19, 2006 when soldiers were greeted warmly as the tanks rolled and troops marched to oust the governments. Coup success led subsequently to bargaining power, influence and interest.
With the number of successful military interventions outnumbering the failures, the military top brass have only a few lessons to remind them of what life as a rebel and a loser is like. But if past failures had outweighed the successes, military leaders would have had to have given serious thought before using force to overthrow an administration.
But that was then. Now the generals think twice as they might end up facing fierce opposition from red shirts across the country, including those who have undergone counter-coup tactics training. Leading United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) figures have declared they will unleash "the final battle" if there is another coup.
Among those who are seriously concerned about this is Jatuporn Prompan. He smelled the aroma of a coup in the air after the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) returned to the streets to block the government's attempt to push through the reconciliation and charter amendment bills and saw the Democrat Party's fierce attempts to derail these efforts in parliament.
The PAD is confident of the military's backing to put an end to the Pheu Thai Party-led government, but the ruling party and its red-shirt followers will not hesitate to fend it off and even be ready for a bloody clash with soldiers.
With a possible confrontation between the red and yellow camps looming, plus the opposition Democrats, Thailand's political situation is boiling over again despite the fact that parliament is going into recess next Tuesday .
"I admit that I am stressed by the political situation. But I can do nothing except monitor it," army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha said.
"I believe that some groups have rallied with the aim of luring soldiers to stage a coup or to use violence. But I have said time and again that a military coup is not on my mind. If we do that to solve a political problem, the country will go nowhere.
"I want to see soldiers be professional by keeping their hands off politics."
That was the same message he conveyed to Defence Minister Sukumpol Suwanatat after coup rumours spread early this month. ACM Sukumpol was relieved after assurances from the army's number one man. "The army commander called me to clarify the issue. He told me that he has never thought about staging a coup, even though I didn't request a call from him," the minister said, adding that he did not believe that the army leader would stage a coup to bring the Democrats back to form a government.
"The army and the Democrats are on separate paths," ACM Sukumpol added.
Supreme Commander Tanasak Patimapakorn also met with ACM Sukumpol to dispel reports by media run by the red shirts and made public by Mr Jatuporn that "General Jeab" would be the coup leader.
"The coup leader won't be Gen Prayuth, but the one who is on his side," the outspoken red shirt leader said.
Jeab is Gen Tanasak's nickname. He was a friend of Gen Prayuth at the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School's Class 12. Traditionally, the supreme commander is always "invited" to be the coup leader to show unity among the armed forces in staging a putsch.
Gen Tanasak countered that "I really don't want to talk about it. I don't want to come out to deny it because I've never had that in mind. Let them talk.
"The country has to move forward, otherwise it will go nowhere," he added.
The red shirts had speculated that Gen Tanasak's meeting with "a well-respected person" was to discuss a coup, although he was actually in Kuala Lumpur for a Thai-Malaysian meeting with his counterpart there. He returned from Malaysia for a short stay before heading to Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue on regional security issues.
Under present circumstance, the "outside factor" is not ripe enough to compel the armed forces to stage a coup. The ammart (elite) will use soldiers as a last resort to fight Thaksin Shinawatra and his supporters. Now the elite is waiting to see what happens in the judicial process and among independent organisations. If the government interferes with them, that could provide the grounds for staging a coup.
As far as the government is concerned, it didn't step on the army and other forces' toes during the last military reshuffle, including of top commanding positions. But the next annual reshuffle will be worth watching as it will be another test of the government's relations with the armed forces. One of the posts to watch is that of army leader, as the position is linked to the 91 deaths during the military crackdown on the red shirts two years ago.
At the air force, there are reports that ACM Sukumpol might promote Deputy Supreme Commander ACM Bunyarith Kerdsuk to be the next chief after Itthaporn Subhawong retires. ACM Itthaporn has set his sights on assistant air force chief ACM Prajin Junthong as his successor, but the minister does not want another man connected to the last coup-making body, the Council for National Security, in control of the air force.
It will be interesting to see whether Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra keeps her promise to the commanders of all armed forces that she will not interfere with and always respect their decisions.
It will also be fascinating to see how the armed forces react to suspicions of attempts to whitewash Thaksin of all the charges against him, including his two-year prison sentence, and bring him home from his self-exile after the coup six years ago.
Although Gen Prayuth and Gen Tanasak have guaranteed there will be no coup, nobody is so sure that the Sept 19, 2006 putsch will be the last one. One certainty is that the next coup, if it happens, will not be pulled off so easily and the outcome will not be quite so rosy.
Wassana Nanuam reports on military affairs for the Bangkok Post.