The government's claims that its war on drugs is a success are hard to swallow. It may be true that the one-year-old government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has made the campaign a centre of its policy. Certainly the public relations machine is spouting numbers of arrests, prosecutions and the like.
But the public knows that true success in the war on drugs can easily be measured with two major results, both of which are prominently missing.
The government's claim is that since the number of drug seizures, arrests and prosecutions are up, the war is _ not just a success _ but "a remarkable success". On the contrary, however, such numbers prove little. At best, they show what seems to be true: The government effort led by Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung is pressing police to crack down on rampant drug smuggling and street sales.
The second sign of success would be the arrests or deaths of major drug kingpins. There was no word of success along that line in last week's claims of success. Drugs continue to flow across the border from Myanmar, continue to be smuggled to all parts of the country, continue to fuel the murderous violence in the deep South. The drug smuggling kingpin Sai Naw Kham was captured in the Golden Triangle and extradited to China. That is the only good news in neutralising the rich, powerful men at the top of the drug trafficking in our country and our neighbours'.
If the government insists on pressing its exaggerations about "remarkable successes", it should be challenged. Take any number offered by the government and examine it. More than 330,000 arrests have been made, in around 11 months.
But the number of arrests is not slowing. That means one of two things: Drug smugglers and peddlers are being replaced faster than they can be arrested, or there were so many to start with that the huge number of arrests is just the tip of the iceberg. Similar holes can be punched in the numbers cited for prosecutions, imprisoned felons, cured addicts and the like.
The government has undoubtedly scored achievements in fighting drugs, the number one concern of most of the country. The drug seizures and arrests of local drug distributors are worthy accomplishments. Providing rehabilitation facilities is admirable. And it is certainly worth noting that Ms Yingluck and Mr Chalerm have avoided all of the nasty and illegal methods of the old Thaksin Shinawatra war.
There seems little doubt that the top men and women in the administration and police are dedicated to the anti-drugs battle. But the fact is that up until now, the makers, smugglers, distributors and traffickers of illicit drugs are ahead of the Royal Thai Police, the Office of the Narcotics Control Board and Mr Chalerm.
Real wars and metaphorical ones are measured by victory. The Yingluck administration has won numerous skirmishes in the new war on drugs. But by all appearances real success is still in the future. When there are few drug peddlers left, when most of the addicts have been cured, when the big-shot traffickers are imprisoned or dead _ that will be the day to celebrate a true victory in this necessary war.