Thein Sein appoints 'super cabinet'

Thein Sein appoints 'super cabinet'

After months of speculation and rumours, Myanmar's president Thein Sein has created a "super" cabinet in order to deflect attention from his besieged administration, riven with divisions and inertia.

Earlier this week the president began to roll out his massive government shake-up, involving extensive cabinet changes and an overhaul of the civil service. This is aimed at reforming and modernising the country's antiquated government machinery and, more importantly boosting economic development.

President Thein Sein has tried to silence growing criticism inside the country and shore up international support with one fell swoop _ the cabinet reshuffle announced earlier this week _ to get the reform process back on track. At least nine cabinet ministers have been replaced and more than 16 new deputy ministers appointed in the largest shake up in the Myanmar government since Thein Sein took power last year and began his ambitious reform process.

After months of hints and leaks from government advisers, Thein Sein has seized the moment and announced the cabinet changes, though only piecemeal. One thing is certain: the reshuffle aims to increase the president's power during a constitutional crisis between the president and the parliament, led by the speaker of the lower house, Shwe Mann.

The announcement was largely intended to deflect parliamentary criticism and interference, according to many analysts in Yangon. "The timing of the reshuffle was planned so as to divert attention from the crises the president is facing," respected Myanmar analyst and former prisoner of conscience Khin Zaw Win told the Bangkok Post.

Last week the violence between Buddhists and Muslims in the country's western Arakan state was the talk of the town; this week it's the cabinet changes. "Now the right men are in the right positions," said Aung Tun, a street stall vendor in downtown Yangon.

In this week's sweeping shake-up, Thein Sein replaced the ministers responsible for information, economic planning, finance, industry and railways. These ministries are being transferred to the president's office.

Finance Minister Hla Tun, Economic Planning Minister Tin Naing Thein, Industry Minister Soe Thein and Railways Minister Aung Min have all been promoted and transferred to the president's office to oversee the economy. "It's more a reorganisation than a reshuffle," said a government insider.

Earlier this month President Thein announced the government's immediate priority was to boost economic growth by 8% a year and provide real income growth for everyone.

Many Myanmar economists think the president's plans are over ambitious and unrealistic, especially the proposed increase of per capita income to US$3,000 (94,000 baht) by 2015.

The economic ministers, on whose shoulders this Herculean task now rests, will oversee the process from the president's office. This means they will work directly under the president, which will free him up to concentrate on other matters, according to his advisers. It will increase their access to the president and their authority.

"It's all part of streamlining the decision-making process and making the president and his ministers more effective," a government insider said. But it is also a process of centralising power in the president's office _ with the creation of an elite super cabinet _ that will take responsibility for most of the government administration.

The current cabinet reshuffle shows the president's commitment to the reform process, according to many analysts. Many of the new ministers and deputy ministers are committed economic reformers.

"The signs are very good that this new cabinet will help unblock the recent log-jam to reform and generally push for greater economic liberalisation," said Australian economic expert Sean Turnell.

But Thein Sein's other aim is to improve the efficiency of the government bureaucracy and inject new blood into the administration. Many of the new ministers are academics, businessmen and technocrats. Winston Set Aung's appointment as the deputy minister for economic planning _ a businessmen and economic consultant who has been acting as an economic adviser to the president for the last 12 months _ is only the start, said a government insider.

Competency, efficiency and effectiveness are now to be the watch-words for the government and the civil service, many diplomats in Yangon believe. Promotion will be on results, borrowing from American organisational management texts, said a European businessman who has extensive experience in Myanmar. The president is a key fan of texts that have been translated into the Burmese language, a confidante of the president confided to me several years ago.

"The battle between the hardliners and reformers has been exaggerated," one presidential adviser said, on condition of anonymity. "The fault line is between competence and incompetence; between effectiveness and ineffectiveness," he added.

A good illustration of this new approach is Information Minister Kyaw Hsan's effective demotion to look after cooperatives, which many analysts believe will be phased out. The fact that he hung on for so long has been a mystery, but many believe his relationship with the old dictator Than Shwe almost made him indispensable _ that is, until the press council fiasco earlier this month made his departure almost inevitable.

The new information minister is the dynamic former Labour and Social Welfare Minister Aung Kyi. He has a reputation for being a reformer. But more than anything, he is one of the most effective ministers in Thein Sein's cabinet. The International Labour Organisation is full of praise for his far-sighted approach to forced labour, the formation of trade unions and industrial conciliation, and child soldiers. And he has a good working relationship with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. They continue to work together on the issue of Myanmar migrant workers in Thailand.

Former railways minister Aung Min will become a minister in the president's office to oversee national reconciliation efforts. Apart from continuing his ceasefire mediation efforts with ethnic rebel groups, he will be responsible for encouraging Myanmar exiles and expatriates to return home. He reportedly will become a member of the national defence security council and be given a measure of authority over the military.

In particular the constitutional crisis that is presently pitting the president against the parliament, and Thein Sein against the speaker Shwe Mann has yet to be resolved, and may well add to the paralysis in government. No one can afford this to be spun out any longer than is possible _ a compromise must be found or the country is going to plunge into increasing uncertainty and disorder, with government effectively castrated.


Larry Jagan is a former BBC regional correspondent based in Bangkok who covers Myanmar issues extensively.

Larry Jagan

A specialist on Myanmar

Larry Jagan is a specialist on Myanmar and a former BBC World Service News editor for the region.

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