There are a few things I've learned from the rumble in front of the Crime Suppression Division (CSD) compound between the yellow People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and the red shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) last Tuesday. One, as I already suspected, the red shirts have the upper hand. The Romans and the Americans created their hegemony through the three R's: resource, reinforcement and resolve. The red shirts have all three, while the yellow shirts have simply wilted.
Another thing, also as already suspected, is the ineffectiveness of the Thai police.
If the Romans had put up a shield wall similar to the one the police put up around the CSD, three elderly Gauls could have breached it.
On Tuesday, a group of yellow shirts turned up at the CSD to support former international school teacher Manasnant Nookham, who was summoned to answer questions over an incident last month in which she publicly accused key red shirt supporter Darunee Kritbunyalai of defaming the monarchy. Then a group of red shirts showed up to support Ms Darunee.
However, Ms Manasnant's date with the police on Thursday had been postponed to Oct 29.
Yes, everyone got the wrong date and neither Ms Manasnant nor Ms Darunee was there .
Looking into the future, the most worrying aspect of the incident is that this was the first officially planned physical confrontation (not an accident or an unintended skirmish) between the PAD and the UDD since Thailand's current political crisis started in 2005, when the PAD first took to the streets. Where there's a first, there's the possibility of a second and a third, and so on.
Early reports estimated the PAD's numbers at around 500 and the number of UDD who showed up to support Ms Darunee at around 100. However, Charn Chaiya, a red leader and the voice of red radio FM90.25, put the red number in the morning at around 50. Despite the discrepancies, everyone agrees that the red shirts were outnumbered in the morning.
Both sides waved signs and banners. While the PAD sported T-shirts and headbands with the slogan ''Love the King'', many of the UDD were going with ''Love the Prince''.
When asked for the reason behind her chosen slogan, one elderly UDD lady said that she too loves the King, but she wanted to show something different.
''They already have that slogan, so we wanted to show our own,'' she said.
According to reports, the morning saw the two groups exchanging insults and hurling plastic water bottles at each other. There was pushing, shoving and kicking, but no confirmed report as to who initially started the violence, though it was clear that the red shirts were outnumbered and being pushed back.
Things escalated near 11am, when a truck belonging to red radio FM90.25 had its front window smashed by a yellow shirt, while others kicked and threw objects at the truck.
Both sides suffered injuries. Both sides called for reinforcements. The police detained members of both sides who were involved in the violence inside the CSD compound.
I got there just before noon, and here's what I saw.
There was a stand-off, with the PAD in front of the CSD gates, while the UDD took a position across the street. On the island in the middle of the road was the shield wall formed by riot police. There were more than 150 riot police and other officers total. Meanwhile, traffic was still allowed to move through, however slow.
Over the next two hours, the number of red shirts climbed to nearly 200, while the other side seemed to dwindle to less than 50. The red shirts flashed middle fingers, yelled insults and taunted. The yellow shirts became subdued as they were outnumbered, but they were still visibly angry.
Every now and again, the red shirts proved that they could outflank or simply break through the police shield wall whenever they wanted, with no more than three to five people.
That scene was repeated around five times. Then a group of less than 10 red shirts outflanked the police and charged the yellow shirts from opposite sides. Punches and kicks were thrown, more insults screamed and more plastic bottles thrown.
The yellow shirts also threw back punches, insults and bottles, but being outnumbered, were always on the losing end, except for one lady who swung her umbrella fearlessly at two red shirt men.
The participants were mainly people who looked to be over 40 and even over 50 years old. These uncles and aunties were the most angry and violent.
Every time the red shirts outflanked or busted through police lines, the first ones on the scene were the photographers, followed by more police. Always, the police failed to prevent breaches of their line, and only succeeded in pushing the red shirts back to their side of the street after many punches, kicks and bottles were exchanged and injuries suffered.
The police were also assisted by red shirts with cooler heads who helped pull back their more emotional comrades.
By around 12.30pm, the police released the detainees, to the cheering of the red shirts. A police announcement asked everyone to go home, stressing that ''We are all Thais.''
By 1pm, the red shirts were obviously winning and brimming with confidence, while the yellow shirts dwindled in number even further; the looks of dismay on their faces told the story. Many went home, while others took refuge inside the Tesco Lotus on their side of the street. Some went to CentralPlaza Lardprao.
One group of yellow shirts who decided they had enough drove by in a car and yelled at the police, referring to them as a particular reptile deemed demeaning in Thai culture.
Red leader Charn stressed that the red shirts were attacked first. He said they went there in peace.
''We are here to support Darunee. Only 50 of us came this morning, then they surrounded and attacked us.''
Mr Charn demanded that the PAD hiding in Tesco Lotus go home, and said the PAD leadership should take responsibility and apologise. He threatened that no less than 10,000 red shirts were on their way.
Around 1.30pm, the red crowd began to yell ''Saranyu is here! Saranyu is here!'', referring to Saranyu Wongkrajang, the famous actor who has appeared on the PAD stage many times.
Rumours spread that he was going into Tesco Lotus, and immediately about 20 red shirts ran to the store. Everyone busted through the police shield wall.
There was no Saranyu, but a few red shirts began beating up on one man, surrounded by flashing cameras. They were eventually pushed back by the police and pulled back by red shirts with cooler heads. One yellow shirt grandmother who took refuge inside Tesco Lotus told a police officer, ''We should just hand over Thailand to the red shirts. The police are bad.''
By 2pm, rain started pouring down. Before 3pm, the remaining yellow shirts left through the back entrance of Tesco Lotus. Across the street, perhaps 10 red shirts were visible.
The rain stopped after 3pm, and about 50 red shirts walked out to the pavement, yelling and laughing.
When asked what they were going on about, one red shirt said, ''They are just happy they won.''
Later, Pol Col Prasopchoke Prommul of the CSD put the number of protesters at 500 for each side. He said in a radio interview that even if there were 10 battalions of police, they wouldn't have been able to contain the situation.
According to the police colonel, this is because there are people, hard-core elements, who wanted this to happen, to create this situation, but refused to elaborate on who he was referring to.
Everyone got the wrong date. No one was arrested. Ten thousand red shirts did not arrive. The police did not restore peace, the rain did.
Most importantly, when there's a first, the possibility of a second is somewhere on the horizon. Leaders of both political movements have urged their supporters to stay away from each other.
But as one red shirt told me, ''You can't control everybody.''
Contact Voranai Vanijaka via email at voranaiv@bangkokpost.co.th.