South a threat without a face

South a threat without a face

Maj Gen Nakrob Boonbuathong makes a good point on the way to end the violence in the deep South _ and he has the experience to back it up.

The Internal Security Operations Command senior officer told this newspaper that it is going to take negotiations and a clear roadmap to return peace to the four southernmost provinces.

Maj Gen Nakrob is deputy director-general of Isoc's 5th Operations Coordination Centre in the volatile region. His logic is impeccable but there are profound problems involved.

Maj Gen Nakrob himself pointed out a major hurdle. Negotiations must involve "people who truly represent the insurgent movement".

Putting aside for the moment the touchy question of whether the southern gangs are insurgents, their identity is a self-imposed mystery.

A violent and murderous anti-government campaign is nearing its ninth anniversary. Yet the groups and leaders involved have made no effort to come clean about who they are.

Neither have the southern groups ever stated an aim. Presumably, the "insurgents" want separation or independence from Thailand. But this is only an assumption of the public, based on the best guesses of officers such as Maj Gen Nakrob and his intelligence assets.

In reality, 3,195 days have gone by since the southern gangs renewed their violent campaign at the beginning of 2004, and no group or person has claimed to speak for the extremists.

Maj Gen Nakrob noted correctly that negotiations have ended prolonged conflicts elsewhere.

He pointed to Northern Ireland, Aceh and East Timor as recent examples where governments ended years of unrest with discussions. But he was unable to identify the Thai counterpart of the Irish Republican Army, the Free Aceh Movement or the Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (Fretilin).

The Thai insurgency, as Maj Gen Nakrob calls it, lacks an identity. It also lacks a spokesman of any calibre, let alone a statesman such as Irishman Martin McGuinness, who last June met Queen Elizabeth II.

The Thai gangs of the deep South can only dream for now that they have a leader with the class of Jose Ramos-Horta _ Fretilin leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner. The Free Aceh movement also was a formal organisation with a leadership structure known to the Indonesian government and the public.

The problem for those who like the idea of peace talks in the South is that it takes two to negotiate.

For now, whoever is behind the murderous, nine-year campaign is as anonymous as their demands. The failure by authorities to identify the foe in the deep South is a serious political failure.

The sad fact is, there is no shortage of "key steps" required to achieve peace in the South. Nor is there a lack of will on the part of national leaders to negotiate. The only thing missing in projected peace negotiations is a talking partner.

It is clear that the security strategy in the South has failed. New policies and tactics are needed. The government should long ago have made it clear that it is open to talks, including through third parties _ with the actual leaders of the southern insurgency.

Maj Gen Nakrob and like-minded people should be seeking negotiating partners. In the meantime, his superiors in the military should be looking for better ways to identify the leaders of the rebellion.

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