Kim's New Year message offers a glimmer of hope

Kim's New Year message offers a glimmer of hope

The world was treated to a message of peace from an unusual source on New Year's Day. Of course, the pledge from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to seek reconciliation with South Korea and lift his country out of poverty in itself does not signify a true change of course for the isolationist country. There have been similar statements from Mr Kim's forebears and invariably they have not been backed up by action, at least not for any significant length of time.

The world was treated to a message of peace from an unusual source on New Year's Day. Of course, the pledge from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to seek reconciliation with South Korea and lift his country out of poverty in itself does not signify a true change of course for the isolationist country. There have been similar statements from Mr Kim's forebears and invariably they have not been backed up by action, at least not for any significant length of time.

That doesn't mean that the opening should not be followed up on with bilateral talks between the two Koreas as well as renewed efforts to restart the multilateral six-party talks.

The six-party talks, which besides the two Koreas include the US, Russia, China and Japan, have not been held since late 2008, and in his address on New Year's Day Mr Kim gave no indication that he is ready to resume them. Instead he kept the focus on relations with the South and promised to pull off an economic miracle in the North through superior technology. He said the recent satellite launching by Pyongyang was proof of its techological capabilities. But many took the launch as proof that Mr Kim is determined to persist in the same sort of belligerence toward his neighbours as his father, Kim Jong-il.

While the launch was no doubt an unsubtle warning that North Korea now possesses longer range missile capability, it is just possible that the younger Kim was also attempting to set up negotiations with the South from a position of strength. Mr Kim may yet prove to be more yielding to international diplomacy and more concerned with the welfare of his people than his father. Such were the hopes when it was confirmed that he would take over after the death of his father. It does appear that on a personal level at least Mr Kim is less rigid than his father. Educated overseas, he is more outgoing and has been photographed at concerts and other social events, apparently having a good time, often with his attractive and somewhat mystery-shrouded wife Ri, the daughter of a doctor and an academic.

It is widely believed that she was pregnant when she dropped out of the public eye last October and that her recent slimmed-down reappearance is an indication that she had given birth, although there was no confirmation at the time of publication.

There are also indications that North Korean society at large may be more relaxed, as evidenced by images of women wearing short skirts and high heels in downtown Pyongyang. Obviously this could not be done without the approval of or at least acceptance from the "Supreme Leader".

But while there seems little doubt that Kim Jong-un is looser on a personal level than his father, one year on there has been little to suggest this will translate into a more open foreign policy. The address on New Year's Day was the first real indication that it might, although most observers have been quick to downplay the significance. They point out that when Mr Kim conducted a failed rocket test in April he did it against the protests of North Korea's only ally, China, and also knowing that it would jeopardise a food aid deal with the US, which was subsequently scrapped.

Last month, South Korea elected Park Geun-hye as its new president. She will take office next month. Despite the fact that her father was targeted for assassination by Kim Jong-un's grandfather Kim Il-sung, founder of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and leader from its establishment in 1948 until his death in 1994, Ms Park has made engagement with the North a stated priority and repeatedly stressed the need for a dialogue.

The sticking point is that Ms Park, like the leaders of Japan and the US, are insisting that North Korea agree to abandon its nuclear weapons programme, not necessarily as a precondition of talks, but certainly as the goal of talks. Realistically there is little chance that Kim Jong-un will give up his weapons programme, at least not in the early stages of any discussions, as this is his only real negotiating card.

But if talks are resumed they will at the least lead to relaxed tensions in the region, along with an improved quality of life for the North Korean people. In the long run, there is always the hope that talks might also lead to Pyongyang's nuclear disarmament.

Do you like the content of this article?
COMMENT