Deviation is standard

Postbag

Published: 5 Mar 2013 at 00.00
Newspaper section: News

Your report yesterday titled ''Red-faced Abac Poll to keep lid on future surveys'' is timely. All the excuses as reported were meek and irrelevant. Only Nida Poll was almost spot-on. Dusit Poll chose not to conduct an exit poll after criticisms on it neutrality.

Most of Thailand's pollsters think they are gurus in naming a winner instead of sticking to the subject of statistics. Respectable pollsters stick to figures and nothing else. The figures or graphs are always notated with a caveat of having a ''margin of error of plus/minus-3%''. If all the Thai pollsters had put in that notation and refrained from naming names, they would not have been so embarrassed. Only Abac's figures were outside that standard statistical deviation of 3%.

The Italian exit polls recently came out with dim prospects for Berlusconi, and one professor warned that historically Italian exit polls have never been trustworthy. That professor was right and Berlusconi has now become a force to be reckoned with. Thai pollsters also fall into the Italian category except they are worse in being talkative and publicity-seeking.

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OldThaiHand
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Discussion 11 : 05 Mar 2013 at 16.4011
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Well Disc 9

Vint might be a bit verbose. But, he's basically right, especially in this case. ABAC as an academic institution and source of questionable polls enjoys a completely undeserved reputation for high standards. One only need look at the quality or lack of in its faculty to recognize that.
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hugo
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Discussion 10 : 05 Mar 2013 at 15.3710
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As Italian I would say nothing beats a sip of caffè espresso ristretto.
About the polls, we experienced similar stories in Italy and in other European countries. We should remember two very elementary facts: 1. some Poll agencies are far from being independent, they may be serving the interests of some party. 2. people sometimes do not say the truth. In Asia that "sometimes" usually becomes a "often".
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flashflood
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Discussion 9 : 05 Mar 2013 at 13.029
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"Society cannot allow itself to tolerate irresponsible academics or institutions that committed such a big blunder." Get off your high horse Vince -If that's the sort of society you want then go live in Nth Korea - that's how they think too.
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kena
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Discussion 8 : 05 Mar 2013 at 11.498
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Tea is caffeinated, beer has putrified sugars (one step away from formaldehyde). I'll take carrot juice over either, but fresh vegetable juice is a healthy drink, so that's why a person can't find it for sale in Thailand. All Thai drinks, other than water, are adulterated with either sugar, corn syrup, salt, MSG or caffeine, and a host of other unhealthy additives.
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Ozman_Bkk
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Discussion 7 : 05 Mar 2013 at 10.477
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You are quite correct Edward. We have heard all the promises and bluster. Now it is time for Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra to roll up his sleeves and get busy.

The major of people of Bangkok chose you. Now it is time to show them you listened.
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mogy71
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Discussion 6 : 05 Mar 2013 at 09.286
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Charlie - of course you're not coarse !..
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dao
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Discussion 5 : 05 Mar 2013 at 09.065
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I cant help but think polls were manipulated .
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Victor
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Discussion 4 : 05 Mar 2013 at 08.104
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Thai pollsters thought they are soothsayers or Mor Doo, and not statisticians.
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whatajoke
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Discussion 3 : 05 Mar 2013 at 08.083
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Most polls put Pongsapat 10 percentage points ahead of Sukhumband consistently and only the exit polls suggested it had narrowed to about 2-3 points, in the end Sukhumband's vote was 8 percentage points greater, that's a massive swing if 18%. Hardly the 3% margin of error. He gained 20% more votes than Pongsapat which is far greater than the narrow margin separating the two main political parties in the last Party list vote. Hardly tight. Luckily there's aren't only 15 people in the electorate, otherwise it would so much easier to bribe one individual to change allegiance. Tisk! These fuzzy statisticians.
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Renaissance
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Discussion 2 : 05 Mar 2013 at 08.042
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Thai politicians will now start again doing what they do best. Pheu Thai will most certainly do what it can to frustrate the Democrats' efforts to administer Bangkok while criticising their actions so as to make the people think negatively about the winner. Does anyone really expect PT to become angels and to help Sukhumband "seemlessly" to implement his promises? Thai politics is a dirty, self-serving game in which one attacks and blames the "other" party in order to get one's hands on the power and money. The people's interests have nothing to do with it. All hail the politicians!
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Deviation is standard | Bangkok Post: opinion