Oh what a tangled web we weave when we practise a populist policy that is ill-conceived. A scheme to help farmers is much needed _ no one should deny that. A poorly planned scheme riddled with holes and masked in secrecy doesn't help anyone _ this also is undeniable.
Given the all-important push for the amnesty bill (the next reading is set for August), Thaksin Shinawatra needs everything to go smoothly to create a politically favourable climate. But not everything is going smoothly, and the boss is not happy, as he made known in his latest Skype meeting.
Whatever happened to the minds that launched the Otop and 30-baht healthcare schemes back during the Thai Rak Thai days? Sure, these programmes weren't flawless, and they still have their detractors, but overall, they were conceived well enough, and were successful in bettering the lives of a particular group of people and the country as a whole.
So how have we come to this mess of a rice-pledging scheme? Now the Pheu Thai government is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
To prevent the country from further losses, it has to anger its voting base of rural rice farmers by reducing the subsidy. To continue pleasing its voting base (and red-shirt supporters), it has to maintain the subsidy, incurring more losses.
The latter would give the Democrat Party more ammunition to discredit its ability to manage the country. (That isn't to say the Democrats would do any better if they were in government.)
On Thursday, Thai Farmers Association president Wichian Phuanglamchiak gave the government seven days to reconsider its decision to slash the paddy pledging ceiling price to 12,000 baht per tonne. According to him, farmers nationwide want the original ceiling price at 15,000 baht a tonne until the pledging programme for the current crop ends on Sept 15.
If the government doesn't comply, Mr Wichian warns that rice farmers will descend on the capital en masse. The official loss for the 2011-12 crop season is estimated to be about 136 billion baht.
For the farmers, it's quite simple. They are already poor, and life is already unfair. Most are tenant farmers, tilling the lands owned by the rich. They have already been bled from generation to generation by unscrupulous millers, middlemen and officials.
They rejoiced at 15,000 baht per tonne, and why not? Who wouldn't rejoice when making more money? Now farmers are piping mad that this will be slashed to 12,000 baht per tonne, and who can blame them? Any of us would be ready to set fire to the office (metaphorically, of course) if management instituted a salary cut.
So for the Pheu Thai government, things have become complicated. A loss of 136 billion baht is no joke. "You know who" lost about 46 billion baht in February, 2010, and we all know what followed. There are three things Pheu Thai can do. The first is exactly what it's doing _ reduce the subsidy and face the wrath of rural rice farmers threatening to descend on Bangkok.
Second, Pheu Thai could soldier through and stick with the scheme. The loss is no joke, but the country could absorb it. Thailand has done far more stupid things and suffered far worse losses (and this trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future). What the Pheu Thai government cannot afford is to appear weak, indecisive, incompetent and, frankly, clueless.
Unfortunately for them this is exactly how the government is appearing. As such, Pheu Thai cannot afford to also appear to be a bunch of liars who break promises in the eyes of rural farmers. Sure, the opposition will have a field day lambasting the foolishness of continuing with a policy that is so clearly flawed, but maintaining the loyalty of rural voters is worth putting up with a tongue lashing from urban folk.
But there's always the third option, corrupt and unsavoury though it might be. And that is to make a private offer that the power players of the Thai Farmers Association cannot refuse, and therefore avoid a mass protest.
This is the Don Corleone option (not the horse's head, but a sack full of cash) and it's not above politics, whether in Thailand or anywhere else in the world. However, we shall assume the integrity of the Thai Farmers Association will prevail.
Regardless of which if any of these options chosen, what definitely must happen is a cabinet reshuffle. Assign blame to the expendables and put capable people (if there are any) in the right jobs to fix this mess and repair the party's image.
The big political book of damage control dictates that the blame must be assigned to the expendables. Therefore, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra must continue on her "I don't know/I don't have the information" grand tour. It doesn't bode well for her image, but it's an image she has had since Day 1, so it's manageable.
The game is to clear her of all responsibility, even if the prime minister is supposed to be the one ultimately responsible for all government policies. But the matter of right and wrong doesn't have a chapter in the big political book of damage control. It doesn't even have a footnote. So protect the prime minister at all costs.
Then, blame the expendables. This means Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom will be the first casualty. The second will be former deputy agricultural and cooperatives minister and present Deputy Commerce Minister Natthawut Saikua. Neither man was responsible for conceiving the rice-pledging scheme, though both have performed poorly in damage control.
But they will be rewarded in other ways, especially Mr Natthawut, whose importance is not as a cabinet member, but as a key leader of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship.
On the upside, it's about time for another round of musical chairs anyway, and there are still people who helped Pheu Thai to win the 2011 general election waiting their turn to wear the proud uniform of a Thai civil servant and have people bow and call them tan. Hopefully some of them will be right for their jobs.
But looking at the big picture, there is no perfect option and things definitely aren't going smoothly.
Once Pheu Thai's Bangkok stronghold, the Don Muang constituency has been lost. Anti-government groups in Guy Fawkes masks are popping up all over. Red-shirt groups like the Rak Chiang Mai 51 keep provoking a bad image. Chalerm Yubamrung and Plodprasop Suraswadi keep opening their mouths. The situation in the three southern provinces is not getting any better. And on top of it all is this rice-pledging dilemma.
None of this means that Pheu Thai is in danger of losing the next general election. Pundits generally agree that it can still bring out the votes, and even Abhisit Vejjajiva has conceded that the Democrats will just have to play the long game.
However, everything mentioned in this article is simply not conducive to creating a favourable political climate for the amnesty bill to be pushed through. It just makes the job that much harder, which means the boss is not happy. And that means a lot of people better get their acts together, or else.
Contact Voranai Vanijaka via email at voranaiv@bangkokpost.co.th