Let the child learn to walk before expecting him to run. Otherwise, he'll trip and fall, suffer a booboo and cry like a baby. But it seems the Thailand 2020 scheme is expecting the child to go straight from crawling to running in the Olympics.
At the Bangkok Post Forum 2013, keynote speaker Chadchat Sittipunt, the transport minister, spoke on the theme "Thailand 2020: investing in the future". He presented many statistics that could be described by a range of adjectives - ambitious, inspiring and saddening, to name but a few.
There was also a set of numbers that can be best thought of as comically tragic. Speaking of the failings of our "time usage" in the past, the minister offered the following insights:
The Laem Chabang port project was initiated in 1961; it was completed in 1991, 30 years later. The Suvarnabhumi airport project was initiated in 1960; it was completed in 2006, 46 years later.
On March 16, 1993, the cabinet approved a double-track railway project; 20 years later, only 13% of it has been completed. On Aug 30, 1994, the cabinet initiated the Bangkok-Nong Ngu Hao-Rayong high-speed railway project; 19 years later nothing has been done.
On April 22, 1997, the cabinet approved a five-route motorway project; 14 years later only 20% has been completed. On Sept 7, 2004, the cabinet approved a seven-line MRT project; nine years later only 27% of it has been completed.
To this dismal list, Mr Chadchat offered one somewhat more comforting statistic: On Jan 10, 1995, the cabinet approved a five-route, four-lane road project; 17 years later, 78% has been completed. But really, the best of the bunch is still a far cry from being anywhere near acceptable.
Given the time spans, pinpointing the blame on any one single government doesn't tell the entire story. Likewise, to cite the tom yum kung economic crisis of 1997 and the political instability begun by the 2006 military coup would only offer two small glimpses of the picture.
We can't single out a scapegoat. This has everything to do with Thailand being Thailand. Our failings as a society may not be unique to us, lots of countries have such problems, but it is we who suffer the consequences of our failings.
This means firstly that the structure and mentality of Thai civil bureaucracies are stuck in the Stone Age. Wheels have not been invented and red tape blocks every step, so they move like pregnant snails.
Although these bureaucracies boast all the pomp and ceremony that tradition (read image) dictates and budgets can afford, nothing gets done quickly.
This means that, secondly, it takes time to hatch plans, negotiate, bargain and haggle before all parties involved - politicians, bureaucrats, private contractors, chauffeurs and so on - can divide the cake to everyone's satisfaction.
According to the late Dusit Nontanakorn, former president of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, 30% of every government project goes into people's pockets. Some say that these days it's around 50%. All the baking, slicing, chewing, swallowing and digesting all takes time, so again, nothing gets done quickly.
This means that, thirdly, although there are many wonderful exceptions to the generality, in general we Thai people just love to take our sweet, precious time. What's the hurry? Sabai sabai. Mai pen rai. We like an easy, comfortable pace.
We'll stay at the office until late, no big deal, but that doesn't mean we are working. In any case, both the The Five Gentlemen (Khun-chai) and Hormones series are airing on the weekend, so there's no hurry to get home. Or we can watch internet reruns.
With such a cultural outlook, nothing gets done quicky (although supposedly things are more efficient in multinational companies and local companies that are more on the cutting edge). Add to all of this an education system that even most Thais agree is sub-par, to put it gently. So on top of quickly, we can add that not many things get done well either.
Put all these factors together and the result is as illustrated by the progress, or lack of, in the projects mentioned earlier.
Another prime example of the inertia that besets us is that we have a decades-long head start on Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia, as those countries were ravaged by wars through much of the second half of the 20th century. But now they are onto 4G and 5G internet, while our 3G still feels every bit as slow as 2G.
But that's in the past. The theme of the Bangkok Post Forum was investing in the future, and this means the 2.2-trillion-baht infrastructure bill which the Pheu Thai government is pushing.
For the sake of discussion, let's assume Pheu Thai will last in government until 2020, which is not far-fetched if everything stays democratic.
During the talk, Mr Chadchat laid out some wonderful, expensive plans. He did so articulately and logically, which is rare, not just for Pheu Thai politicians, but for Thai politicians, period. But there are two cautions.
One, it seems the bulk of the future is being invested in the North and Northeast, Pheu Thai's stronghold. Does this mean the Central region and the South would be left behind in this grand procession for the greater glory of Thailand? But this is merely an aside, not the theme of today's column.
The other, major consideration goes back to the actual complementation and follow-through of the projects. Granted, the Thaksin Shinawatra political machine has proven to be able to get things done faster than any other Thai government. But completing Suvarnabhumi airport or paying off debts to the IMF were just putting in the final pieces of the puzzle, not starting from scratch. This isn't the one-million baht per village scheme, or Otop or 30-baht healthcare. This is actually laying down the infrastructure of the country (or of a region).
This is not to say that Pheu Thai cannot achieve success, but let's not overlook the two diseases that plague the nation: corruption and inefficiency. Just take a look at the rice pledging scheme as an example. Grand ambitions and wonderful intentions, no doubt, but just look at it, really.
Throwing money and technology at Thailand without first building strong fundamentals is like handing a pair of Nike's Lebron9 (the ninth signature basketball sneaker from NBA superstar Lebron James) to a hobbit and expecting him to dunk a basketball. Well, he might be able to dunk a doughnut, but not into a ten-foot high basket, no way.
This does not mean that we should not build up our infrastructure, but while "Thailand 2020" may bring growth, the growth will likely not be sustainable. When the bubble bursts it could blow up the entire country. Just ask the Greeks.
Investing in human resources, education reform, bureaucratic re-engineering and making the legal system effective in the prosecution of corruption, thus rendering it a fledging exception rather than a celebrated traditional norm _ these are the fundamentals that must be addressed first, or at the very least along with, laying down fancy train tracks.
Mr Chadchat spoke of using time wisely. But can fast-forwarding and skipping the central plot be considered wise? We can't invest in the future unless we first learn from the past, and use the present to correct past mistakes, and finally prepare ourselves for the future.
We the Thai people should support the Pheu Thai government for its vision to make a better Thailand. But we the people must also make sure the Pheu Thai government doesn't muck it up absolutely through negligence of the diseases of corruption and inefficiency.
Remember the so-called economic miracles of the 1990s?
Remember when all Thailand talked about being on the cusp of becoming "First World"?
Remember the tom yum kung crisis in 1997? Remember who got richer and richer, while the rest cried like babies?
It wasn't pretty, was it? Well, it was, for some people.
Contact Voranai Vanijaka via email at voranaiv@bangkokpost.co.th.