The hopes for a ceasefire and a quiet Ramadan have been shattered. In the past 10 days alone, close to a dozen bombs have been set off across the southern region. Attacks on the education system have left two teachers dead, a teacher and a volunteer school guard injured, and students traumatised. The Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) made unrealistic demands for a truce during the holy month, and the government put impractical hope in the BRN's goodwill to stop violence for a month.
The Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc) now states the obvious: violence has increased in the past week. It could get worse before Ramadan ends on Thursday with the festival known as Eid al-Fitr, called Hari Raya Puasa in the South. The army has "delayed" plans to withdraw troops from Songkhla province.
The government is responsible for setting high expectations, and then failing to meet them. On one hand, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and senior ministers have remained aloof from the peace process. Ms Yingluck has spoken of the necessity to continue the talks, but has taken no direct interest.
On the scene, the peace talks team of Lt Gen Paradorn Pattanatabut has bent and even broken common sense in the effort to sustain the image of the Ramadan ceasefire. Early murders were probably not related to the militants, officials claimed. When it became obvious that southern gangs were unwilling to stop the conflict, officials again took the side of the militants. They claimed that "some groups" were trying to undermine the BRN's best efforts to make a truce.
One unpleasant fact is that if "some groups" are dedicated to continuing bloodshed, then those are the ones who should be involved in the talks. If the authorities are correct that the BRN is trying to maintain a Ramadan ceasefire, then it now is clear the BRN has no control over the level of violence.
Since the peace talks were authorised six months ago, Lt Gen Paradorn and his team have ignored the obvious reality. The BRN has only one bargaining chip, which is continued, bloody violence. The only promise the separatists can make is, to put it crudely, "If we get what we want, we will stop the killing".
So far, the BRN has refused to stop the violence, and it also has refused to emphatically state what it wants. The government negotiators have thrown out hints of what might be acceptable _ a substantial troop withdrawal, partial self-government along the lines of Bangkok and Pattaya. The BRN has made several tactical demands, but its goals in the peace talks _ what it will accept in return for halting the killing _ are entirely opaque.
The BRN and numerous other groups, moderate and radical alike, will keep killing, bombing and terrorising. They have no hope of winning a territorial victory, but they clearly intend to continue the violence until there are concessions by the government.
For its part, the government, as it demonstrated by cancelling the partial troop withdrawal, intends to stick it out to the end. The peace talks were presented poorly to the public, as a promise of a quick solution. This will not occur. Formal talks are to resume later this month, and it is time for both sides to make serious proposals.