The annual reshuffle at the navy appears to have been a smooth one without any political tsunami, with deputy navy commander Narong Pipatthanasai tipped to take up the top naval post.
Observers had expected fierce competition for the top position given that there are four candidates, all of whom are set to retire next year. However, things have turned out differently, probably because all the candidates are alumni of Class 13 of the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School.
The nomination of Admiral Narong, a former navy attache in Italy, has been received with widespread acceptance on both a personal and professional level in naval circles. He was head of the class while studying at the Royal Thai Naval Academy and possesses a flawless career record.
Another key candidate _ Adm Amornthep Na Bangchang, chief adviser of the Naval Command _ appears to be resigned to his fate. An outstanding officer with an unblemished work record, the officer has close relationships with key politicians, in particular former prime minister Somchai Wongsawat and his wife Yaowapa, sister of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
His name emerged as a potential candidate for navy chief in a leaked audio clip allegedly featuring a conversation between fugitive prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and deputy defence minister Gen Yuthasak Sasiprapa. In the clip, Thaksin expressed his support for nominating Adm Amornthep.
However, a massive public outcry followed the leak of the clip, perhaps forcing Thaksin to backtrack, and current navy commander Adm Surasak Rounroengrom did not nominate him for the position.
What really prevents Adm Amornthep from climbing to the top of his career path is an old tradition that exists in the navy _ as well as the air force _ that limits the choice of commander to those who were groomed in the local academy. This explains why Adm Narong can conveniently sail through to the top, while Adm Amornthep, who finished his education in Germany, is held back.
However, unlike the smooth transfer over at the navy, the Defence Ministry has experienced some turbulence during the reshuffle period with two prominent candidates vying for the position of permanent secretary.
Incumbent permanent secretary for defence Gen Thanongsak Apirakyodhin, who is due to retire next month, nominated an "insider" _ his deputy Gen Nipat Thonglek _ as his successor.
But at the same time, he opened the door for "outsiders" by allowing the top brass to make individual nominations.
Gen Thanongsak used to be an "outsider" himself when he was nominated by then-defence minister ACM Sukumpol Suwanatat to the post, a decision that prompted protests from Gen Sathian Phoemthongin, who took the case to the Administrative Court.
For some, Gen Nipat's "weakness" is his relatively young age, as the general will stay in the position for three years until his retirement in 2016. To his advantage is the support of Prime Minister Yingluck, who is also defence minister and is thankful for his outstanding role in several important areas, including the southern peace talks and the Preah Vihear conflict. Ms Yingluck is said to have tacitly endorsed his nomination.
Gen Nipat's candidacy seemed to be gaining momentum until Gen Jiradej Mokkhasmit, an assistant army commander-in-chief, emerged as a rival.
Gen Jiradej has the support of army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha and of Supreme Commander Gen Tanasak Pratimapagorn, who reportedly does not get along well with Gen Nipat. At the same time, Gen Thanongsak seems to be discreetly supporting Gen Jiradej. Both men are close to Mrs Yaowapa. The heated contest has gripped the ministry for quite some time and both candidates are said to have sought Thaksin's support.
There are reports that ACM Sukumpol took Gen Jiradej to London to visit Thaksin earlier this week to secure the position.
Thaksin, who trusts Gen Jiradej due to his assistance to the Shinawatra clan following the 2006 coup that ousted the former premier, has reportedly reached a compromise for the two candidates _ Gen Jiradej is to get the job first in this reshuffle; when he retires next year, and Gen Nipat will be his replacement.
Ms Yingluck will meet the army commanders as well as the permanent secretary for defence on Friday to finalise the reshuffle list which she has to approve as prime minister. This is a test for Ms Yingluck's leadership and power as prime minister and defence minister. Will she follow her own conscience, sticking to Gen Nipat, her original choice; or will she listen to the "whisper" from her older, influential brother?
Wassana Nanuam is a senior news reporter covering military affairs for the Bangkok Post.