The Democrat Party's decision on Saturday to boycott the Feb 2 election is understandable. It is pointless to contest a poll which will lead it nowhere, except back into the same political quagmire that beset the country before the election.
The same old faces, including the executive committee members of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai, Chart Thai and Matchimathippatai parties who are now free from their five-year political banishment, will stage a comeback in droves to join the race. That is not at all encouraging _ the same old people with the same old mindset.
Is there anything new we can expect from the Pheu Thai Party, which is likely to win the election and become the core party to form a new government? No, nothing. The party and the government will continue to be remotely controlled from Dubai by fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and the new prime minister, likely to be Yingluck Shinawatra, will remain a nominee premier under the shadow of her big brother.
Speaking on television on Saturday, Ms Yingluck promised that after the Feb 2 election, a national reform council will be set up to craft a national reform blueprint.
The council will be made up of representatives from all professional groups and educational institutes, as well as political parties and the state bureaucracy. The council will be in office for just two years.
The big question is, can she or her Pheu Thai Party be trusted, given their tainted credibility of the past two years?
The Democrat Party and the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), led by former Democrat MP Suthep Thaugsuban, do not trust any of them _ which is unsurprising. Most protesters share the same suspicion and mistrust.
Where is the guarantee that the Pheu Thai Party will keep its word on national reform after the election? If the party wins the election, who can force the party to keep its promises? The mistrust for Ms Yingluck and her Pheu Thai-led government is not without basis.
The pre-election promise on land reform has not come to fruition after more than two years in office, and the issue has never even been discussed in earnest. Her latest campaign to tackle corruption, in which Ms Yingluck was seen holding hands with her cabinet ministers, was just a photo op without any real substance.
The best that the government has done to show it is serious about corruption concerns the packed rice scandal, which implicates the Public Warehouse Organisation. But this exercise is nothing but a farce because the head of the fact-finding team is the director-general of the Internal Trade Department who oversees the Public Warehouse Organisation.
This is like appointing a wife to investigate her husband. You can guess the outcome.
Hence, any reform must be undertaken before an election. And since the election is just 40 days away, there is no way a reform blueprint can be worked out in time and discussed by all concerned.
There is a lot of uncertainty about Feb 2. Not even the Election Commission (EC) is 100% confident the election can be staged as scheduled. The EC's concern about trouble which may disrupt the election was conveyed to Ms Yingluck during a meeting last week, but it was ignored, leaving the commission little choice but to proceed half-heartedly with the election.
The PDRC has made it known that it will do everything at its disposal to make sure there will be no election on Feb 2. Mr Suthep announced on Saturday night that protesters would lay siege to the Thai-Japanese youth centre in Din Daeng where the registration of candidates is to be held today.
Western media has repeatedly criticised the attempt to have the election postponed as undemocratic. This amounts to a skin-deep understanding of the aspirations of the protesters who, as a matter of principle, do not object to an election, but would like some aspects of reform to be undertaken first before the country goes to the polling booths.
The government has persisted in saying the election cannot be postponed because the charter states an election must be held within 45-60 days after a House dissolution. But some academics such as Dr Jade Donavanik argue the poll could be put off by virtue of a royal decree to be proposed by the prime minister to His Majesty the King for endorsement.
Putting off the election would relieve the tense political confrontation and give more time for all sides to pause and rethink their hardline stances.
And hopefully, with the help of a mediator acceptable to the two protagonists, Pheu Thai and the PDRC can talk to resolve their conflict in a peaceful manner.
Veera Prateepchaikul is a former editor, Bangkok Post.