Dear Mr Suthep Thaugsuban,
Do I see this because I am an outsider? Or is it because I am not a veteran politician immersed in the treachery of Thai politics in the way you are?
For whatever reason, it is clear to me there is no road ahead for you after the Bangkok shutdown operation.
Even if you succeed in closing off some major roads and intersections this Monday _ paralysing the capital city and causing inconvenience to a great many people, some of whom may need to go see a doctor, do important business or get a plane _ what is next for you and your movement?
If I may guess, I believe you foresee chaos after your mass uprising _ which by no means signifies a majority of people or a critical mass _ has turned some of the city's streets into protest sites and forced the thriving city of Bangkok with all its businesses and tourist activities to a halt.
I believe you foresee a heavy burden falling on the caretaker government, in particular caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
The paralysis, possibly going hand-in-hand with an ensuing melee and confrontation with people who disagree with the shutdown, would force the caretaker ministers to do something.
And it's their reaction, which could easily get excessive and slip out of control as seen in the recent deadly clashes in Ramkhamhaeng and at the Thai-Japanese Stadium in Din Daeng, in which you envisage another break or boost for your movement.
You probably wish that such a melee, if it happens, would serve as a pretext for the military to step in.
Ultimately, you want the military to seize power from the caretaker government. Call it a coup, an attempt to maintain law and order, a helping hand for the "people's revolution" to achieve its goal of reforming the country if you like.
Taking power, albeit temporarily from this caretaker government to make room for what you plan, is what you want the military to do.
But do I see this because I am an outsider? A military takeover is not going to happen unless the army is ready to engage in a civil war.
Despite its might, the military would not be able to control the backlash against it meddling in political affairs that has been fostered since the 2006 coup. The red shirts will rise up against it all over the country. Even some soldiers may rebel. The coup road is a deadly and dead-end one.
It's not likely that you will get your way with a reformist government and "people's council" either. While many agree with your ideas for reform, few would want you and your People's Democratic Reform Committee to appoint the council that would have such sweeping powers to run the country for one-and-a-half years. I myself joined your protest during its early stage when it was opposing the amnesty bill.
I also agree with most of your reform points, namely the decentralisation of the police and elections for provincial governors. But I can't vote for your appointed people's council. In fact, if you could somehow find a way to set it up, I would join a protest against it.
So as an outsider, I see clearly that there is no way for you to proceed even if you shut down Bangkok and cause great damage to the city.
Mr Suthep, this is as far as you can go. You have done a great, admirable job in lending leadership to people desperate for someone to organise them against the tyranny of the majority of parliamentarians who voted to pass the ugly blanket amnesty bill.
The next task of leading a reform movement will belong to someone else, through a process that is not monopolised by you and your movement.
There is a great scene in the 1995 movie The American President which you might like.
In the movie, domestic policy chief Lewis Rothschild played by Michael J Fox tells the American president, played by Michael Douglas, that people want leadership. "In the absence of genuine leadership, they'll listen to anyone who steps up to the microphone. They want leadership. They're so thirsty for it they'll crawl through the desert toward a mirage, and when they discover there's no water, they'll drink the sand."
The president said people don't drink sand because they're thirsty. "They drink the sand 'cause they don't know the difference."
The country and Thais are thirsty for the reform you have helped bring forward.
Mr Suthep, it's time for you to stop the protest and start talking.
It's time to make a difference.
Atiya Achakulwisut is Contributing Editor, Bangkok Post.