For the moment at least, the Feb 2 election is still on. Whether it will be held on schedule, or at all, remains the big question - there are many reasons why it should not.
Between now and polling day many things could render the election pointless, if not impossible. For starters, look through the following list of developments to date. On Thursday, the five election commissioners sent an urgent letter to caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra asking her to consider issuing a royal decree to postpone the Feb 2 election, citing the problems which have already occurred during the registration of candidacy, with more troubles ahead, including the likelihood the new House of Representatives would not be able to convene because it would lack the 95% quorum, or 475 of the 500 MPs, required by the constitution. The five commissioners were due to hold a special meeting today to discuss the concerns expressed by the Auditor-General’s Office over the Feb 2 election. Deputy auditor-general Prapee Angkinant said in a letter to the EC on Thursday that the 3.8 billion baht earmarked for the coming election could be a complete waste of state funds. She cited the violence during candidacy registration and the tendency for more violence if the election is actually held, and the possibility there would not be enough MPs to convene the new House of Representatives.
Rice farmers protest they have not been paid for crops pledged to the government months ago, outside the Buri Ram provincial hall, Jan 9, 2014 (Post Today file photo)
Also on Thursday, the Supreme Court dismissed the petition by 29 candidates who were unable to register their candidacy because of protests in the South and asking that they be deemed eligible to contest the Feb 2 polls.
The court ruled that it could not endorse their candidacy because that was the sole authority of the EC. Also, the court ruled that the police acceptance of their complaints of failed candidacy registration did not constitute proper candidacy registration because there was no screening of their qualifications.
In a way, the Supreme Court’s ruling can be seen as blow to the Election Commission, as the EC had suggested the disappointed candidates take their case to the court in the first place.
Obviously, the Election Commission is under heavy pressure from both opposing camps. The government and the red-shirt movement want to press ahead with the election, whereas the protesters led by the People’s Democratic Reform Committee and the Democrat Party have demanded the election be postponed until demanded reforms are in place.
The government itself is being hard pressed into a very tight corner by the escalating protests, the planned Bangkok shutdown from Monday and the growing defiance by officials against the government - as evident in the cases of the local administration officials from some southern provinces and health officials.
The next big thing that the government will have to deal with is the threat of mass protests by the rice farmers if it again reneges on its most recent promise, that by Jan 15 they will get paid for the crops they pledged as long as five months ago.
The big problem for the government is that it has no money to pay the farmers. The Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives, the main supporter of the rice pledging scheme, is short of cash and can't help the government.
The government wanted the BAAC to set aside 55 billion baht of its deposits to pay the farmers, but the bank’s board has declined, explaining the use of the funds could cause a run on deposits that would put the bank in deep trouble.
Desperate for the needed cash, Deputy Finance Minister Thanusak Lek-uthai was reported to have demanded the BAAC draw on deposits from state enterprises, and not from the other depositors, to pay the farmers in order to stave off their planned protests.
Forget the Commerce Ministry, it won't be coming to the rescue. There is no way that the ministry will be able to sell the stockpiled rice fast enough to get the much-needed cash in just a couple of days to pay the farmers -- always assuming it can sell the rice at all.
Just imagine the grim scenario of angry farmers, the power base of the Pheu Thai Party, joining the protests, albeit for a different reason, led by the People’s Democratic Reform Committee?
Anyone who believes the election should go ahead as scheduled and that all the problems will then be automatically resolved is clearly out of their mind.