Now what? After political sideshows including a visit by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to a Myanmar astrologer, reportedly to ward off his bad karma, and operations to reclaim rally sites that were done with more fanfare than real effort, the question remains — what comes next in the Thai political conflict?
All roads seemed to lead towards the possibility of an interim government last week. There were reports of high-level talks between government representatives and protesters brokered by former deputy prime minister Visanu Krue-ngam.
According to the reports, the meeting saw an initial agreement on three issues: the appointment of an interim government with a non-elected prime minister, the protection of caretaker prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra from action over alleged irregularities in the rice-pledging scheme and an amnesty for anti-government protest leaders from insurrection charges. About the same time, People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) co-leader Thaworn Senneam hinted that the PDRC would end its rallies if Ms Yingluck stepped down.
Mr Thaworn also echoed the reports about an interim government. He said once the caretaker PM resigned, a new government of neutral figures could be set up on an interim basis, mainly to put into motion a national reform process.
While I agree there is no other way for the conflict to end peacefully but through negotiation, I cringe when thinking about the solutions of the reported talks.
As eager as I am for the political tussle to end, I doubt if negotiations between a few people, no matter how connected or powerful they are, will produce a result that will satisfy all sides enough to calm them down even on a short-term basis.
There is no doubt that because the protest has gone on for more than 100 days with no end in sight, many people have felt its damaging effects. Even those who have had nothing to do with it directly can’t help feeling weary by the hopelessness of it all. The election is set to drag on for months while the caretaker government cannot function fully. No new investment is being made as the economy tightens and everybody can feel that money is becoming shorter.
For many people, therefore, having an interim government is probably not a bad idea. There may be a million other things that the protagonists will have to thrash out in future, but if they could agree on this one issue, why don’t they start there?
Despite its expedient appeal, I doubt if an interim government will offer a solution to the power struggle, which truth be told has been stretched to breaking point. Ms Yingluck may have sounded pompous when she said she was only staying to protect democracy but the truth is our society has become so embattled, so polarised that there are essentially no "neutral" people left to sit on the supposedly neutral government. And Ms Yingluck could be right in her attempt to point out, albeit in a difficult way to understand, that at this point in the conflict it’s only the democratic process, namely the election, that deserves to be viewed as neutral.
Do not forget that despite its flaws, the Pheu Thai Party has its supporters who will not take it lightly if its chosen representatives simply step down.
The second element in the discussion that an interim government will be headed by a non-elected PM will be even more difficult to implement. The current charter specifies that the PM must come from an election. I have no idea how anybody, interim or caretaker or whoever, can circumvent that specification without tearing the charter up.
Needless to say, I find it hard to swallow that the reported backroom deal that possible action against Ms Yingluck over alleged government-to-government rice sales irregularities pending at the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) could somehow be softened if she agrees to resign. It is also incomprehensible how anyone could agree to drop insurrection charges against protest leaders when they themselves started their rallies because they wanted to oppose an amnesty for all those involved in political violence since 2006.
With PDRC leader Suthep Thaugsuban insisting again that he will not talk with the government, the door to an interim government appears to have been slammed shut. There may be good reasons for this. The country is now looking at letting the election run its course over the next several months and seeing where to go from there. It’s going to be a long, tiring first half of the year. That is probably why both the government and protest leaders are making sure they have enough sideshows in store to keep us all entertained.
Atiya Achakulwisut is Contributing Editor, Bangkok Post.