House of cards

House of cards

It has long been alleged that different government agencies take sides. For example, the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) and the police department are said to be on the side of the Pheu Thai government.

The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) and the military are allegedly on the side of the opposition.

Theoretically, the police, including the DSI, and the military ought to simply be the arms of the government.

And the NACC should strike fear in the government, as its task is to combat political corruption.

But theories and realities often do not match. Sometimes they are mere cards to be dealt by political players.

On Friday, in a 6-3 vote the Constitution Court declared the Feb 2 general election null and void. The law is the law and the court is there to interpret the law.

Of course, many observers alleged that the Constitution Court favours the opposition.

Crying about it isn’t going to change anything. Instead, let’s look at how this game might play out.

Suthep Thaugsuban and the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) have done their job well in the streets.

They have created enough political pressure that not only has the election been declared invalid, but Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is facing two impeachment bids by the NACC.

It's time to see what moves fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra will make.

With Jatuporn Prompan taking the helm of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), it seems there’s to be a counterattack.

Street protests lead to political pressures, which may or may not yield the desirable political results.

Mr Suthep has been successful in getting the numbers on the streets. There have been anywhere between hundreds of thousands to millions, depending on the estimates.

He’s also accomplished prolonging the protests, now in their fourth month.

The Pheu Thai government could crack down on the protests, swift, severe and certain.

It has every legal right to, as any government the world over does. Not least of which because Mr Suthep himself has said that this is a rebellion, an uprising.

But that won’t do as it could invite a military intervention and could lead to a coup.

So here again is the time for Mr Jatuporn to prove his worth. If he brings 100,000 (at least) red shirts down to Bangkok and they close down the capital, things will indeed become even more interesting.

But it’s not advisable, as this could lead to clashes between the two sides. It would then be up to the military to restore peace. Again, this could turn into a coup.

Mr Jatuporn’s job is likely to create a credible threat, not an actual clash — muscle flexing and sabre rattling, with legions of red shirts mobilising, making the opposition think twice and thrice, with the hope of forcing them to a negotiation table.

The negotiation table is key here. Short of a civil war and the annihilation of either Thaksin & Co or Suthep & Co, neither side can win outright.

Depending on how one wants to look at it, both are politically too strong to be defeated, and both are politically too weak to defeat each other.

Here of course, we are not talking about political strength at the ballot box.

Rather, this is good-old-fashioned political intrigue and agitation. Democratic elections haven’t got anything to do with it.

The Constitution Court has already confirmed that.

Both sides will continue to play their cards, in the streets, through the media, through agencies (independent or otherwise) and from behind the scenes.

The strategy is to one-up each other to gain and hold as much political advantage as possible when the time for negotiation comes.

When negotiations are settled, the terms will also favour one side over the other.

The question is, when will both sides run out of cards and be forced to negotiate?

The worry is, it is not unusual for a player to snap, throw his cards on the table and pull out a gun.


Email Voranai Vanijaka @Voranai@gmail.com.

Voranai Vanijaka

Bangkok Post columnist

Voranai Vanijaka is a columnist, Bangkok Post.

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