Moving back from the edge while we can
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Moving back from the edge while we can

It doesn't take outsiders at The Economist, CNN or Financial Times to point out that Thailand is on the brink.

We Thais know that the country has been teetering on the edge of political failure for years.

It doesn't require a lot of analysis or insight either to realise that this time we are in for a collision of conflicting values, the shock of which will cause many other things that have held our society together to crack and possibly crumble.

It does not even need a high level of intelligence to see that if the conflict unravels further, it's but a matter of time before the freight trains of the caretaker government, the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) and millions of their supporters as well as opponents heavily loaded with animosity and hatred are bound to crash into each other.

It's not difficult to envisage the resulting casualties and damage.

Still, to many people's dread, the Thai power trains refuse to slow down or change course.

The caretaker government presses on with its rejection of counter-balance mechanisms while the PDRC threatens to take state power into its own hands and appoint an interim, unelected prime minister.

Both sides have become so entrenched in their positions, so keen on being seen as committed to the cause in the eyes of their followers, that it seems impossible for either to give any ground in negotiations, not even one inch.

Under the circumstances, it's no surprise to hear doom-and-gloom predictions from political pundits and analysts. An article in The Economist on Saturday, for example, is titled "Everything is broken". The story started off with the phrase: ''Look on and despair.''

Some observers in the country, including protest leaders themselves, have painted a scarier picture and openly talked about the possibility of civil war.

Some academics say that when conflicting parties seem to have no more room for retreat, clashes and violence are unavoidable. The military will have no choice but to take a more assertive role in keeping order that falls just short of staging a coup, they said.

Most of them, however, wonder whether we need to go through this self-destructive process when the detrimental effects seem clearly visible beforehand.

They also point to an obvious fact: No matter how complicated a conflict is or how heavy its toll, it must end at the negotiating table.

They suggest that for the sake of avoiding further loss of life and damage, the opposing parties should have the sense to skip the clashing part and get right to the negotiations.

The question, of course, is how?

I understand that many people have tried to convince the two main rival groups to talk and several proposals have been made on how to steer the country out of the crisis at hand. I know full well that they have all failed.

Still, I would like to see efforts to find a solution continue, even if the hopes are slim.

If we look at the peace proposals that have been made public, one thing stands out.

All agree the new government will be a temporary one, to stay in power for only six months to one year, with a clear mission of developing a reform agenda and then calling yet another election.

The plans mainly differ on how the new government or prime minister will come to power. The government side prefers an election while the PDRC seeks a non-elected, appointed head.

Both sides believe they will triumph. That is why they have fought this far. The truth, however, is neither option will prevail beyond the entrenched positions and partisan support.

At this juncture, the only option I can think of that may possibly allow people to move forward is to have another election with the aim of setting up a national reconciliation government. Whoever wins the most seats will get to be PM. The rest of the cabinet can be allocated to every contesting party by quota. The Democrat Party must contest the election.

It's not a perfect solution, but we have to admit that thus far none has been and none will be. If this is still not good enough, find ways to make it better or search for new ones.

It's time to develop alternatives to violence, not to watch the situation in despair, wait to count dead bodies or pray that the military will step in and take over.


Atiya Achakulwisut is Contributing Editor, Bangkok Post.

Atiya Achakulwisut

Columnist for the Bangkok Post

Atiya Achakulwisut is a columnist for the Bangkok Post.

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