Most military officers have come to believe National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) leader Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha will take the position of prime minister when he retires in September.
Army chief and junta head Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha smiles as he leaves a meeting on the 2015 national budget at the Army Club. EPA/ NARONG SANGNAK
It’s possible lessons from previous coups may persuade the NCPO chief to take the top administrative job.
Look back at the coup-installed interim civilian governments, one headed by Anand Panyarachun in 1991, and the other by Gen Surayud Chulanont in 2006. They both refused to be the coup-makers’ puppets and stayed independent from the military.
Confidence in Gen Prayuth is overwhelming. Many Thais think we are in dire need of a strong, decisive leader to “sweep and clean” the country before we return to a democracy with general elections.
Gen Prayuth’s supporters include the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) and its allies as well as the yellow shirts who want the NCPO to root out the so-called Thaksin regime.
Also in this camp are those “colour-neutral” people who are fed up with long-standing political conflicts. They wholeheartedly welcomed the coup when it was staged on May 22.
While the international community condemns the seizure of power, many Thais still regard it as a legitimate last resort when the country is trapped in a political stalemate.
Most simply shrug off Western sanctions. In their view, Gen Prayuth is a hero who has freed the country from its troubles. Now people look to the general in hope as a stream of petitions floods his office.
Without the bad traffic caused by political protests and the street violence that led to deaths and injuries, many Thais think they can live with the coup, especially since the curfew was lifted last week. Few seem to care if there is an election, which is worrying.
Many understand Gen Prayuth is the de facto prime minister who wields absolute power and chairs the NCPO meeting every Tuesday, which resembles the weekly cabinet meeting.
At the same time, the NCPO continues to keep people happy with “feel good” projects under military populism, starting with rice payments for farmers, cuts in diesel and cooking gas prices, and measures to deal with the mafia, drugs and war weapons.
The free concerts and free screenings of the patriotic film King Naresuan 5 are helping to curry favour for the regime. Gen Prayuth’s “Returning Happiness” song is a hit.
Gen Prayuth’s popularity and that of the NCPO have risen sharply.
Deputy NCPO leader ACM Prajin Jantong said public approval for the NCPO has reached nearly 90%. He declined to name the poll agency.
Asked whether Gen Prayuth should take the post of prime minister, he said: “The NCPO will listen to the people, including the media, about who should be the next prime minister and whether Gen Prayuth should be the choice.”
Gen Prayuth himself seems fully confident in his ability to solve the nation’s problems.
He does not seem to care much about the “unofficial rule of coups” — that a coup-maker should never be prime minister, especially as his retirement draws near.
Some observers argue the NCPO’s tough measures against the red shirts and Pheu Thai make it necessary for Gen Prayuth to stay on in power.
The general says all reforms must be in place before we have an election. One and a half years may not be enough for the process, and it seems likely the election will have to wait until at least 2016.
The creation of a national legislative assembly and reform body will be time-consuming. It’s the assembly that will nominate the prime minister.
Some believe army men will be offered cabinet posts, and regard the appointment of the supreme commander and other top brass to various roles under the coup regime as a warm-up for the jobs they are likely to get in coming months after they retire.
Some have compared Gen Prayuth to Field Marshal Sarit Thanarat in his willingness to wield absolute power.
Yet Gen Prayuth is not happy with the comparison. He says strict enforcement of martial law will be limited to the start of the reform process.
It’s clear the NCPO has learned from past coups — not the lesson against seizing power, but the need to exploit its power under the coup to bring about change.
It has also decided against limiting the duration of the coup before setting up an interim government, which won’t necessarily be a civilian one. It’s clear that men in green will be a major component of the interim cabinet.
There used to be a unofficial rule in coup-making — that coup-makers do not run the country themselves. Gen Prayuth might bring that convention to an end.
Wassana Nanuam is a senior news reporter covering military affairs for the Bangkok Post.