Will he or won’t he? That is the question many people are asking about National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) leader Prayuth Chan-ocha, and whether he will stay on as army chief after his mandatory retirement this September.
Will he seek an extension of his term as army chief? The speculation of this is increasing amid a widespread belief that Gen Prayuth plans to take up the premiership once he retires from the army.
But no one knows how the general will make his decision — with one possibility being he will extend his stay in the top army post while simultaneously taking the role of prime minister.
The provisional charter, scheduled to be unveiled later this month, is likely to allow government officials to take up ministerial posts in the interim government that is due to be formed in September.
Under the circumstances, there are three possibilities for the military strongman.
Firstly, he may take the premiership and immediately resign from the army, while keeping only the NCPO top job. But this is least likely as he would have no grip on military power.
Secondly, he might take the premiership, and stay on as both NCPO leader and army chief. Then he would abandon the army on Sept 30 upon his mandatory retirement.
Thirdly, he would take all positions but at the same time test public sentiment to see if Thais support him staying longer.
If so, he may seek an extension of his term as army chief for another year to oversee the plan to achieve democracy, with the introduction of the 2015 constitution, followed by elections expected to take place in early October.
Even though the third option is most likely, army officers hope Gen Prayuth will not linger after his retirement. This is because the general has been in the top army post for almost four years — a long period compared with his predecessors — and that has blocked younger commander-level officers from climbing the career ladder.
Several were bypassed and are looking at having to retire without getting the commander’s job. A personnel gap is also likely to arise. By the time Gen Prayuth relinquishes power, many officers will be too junior for key positions.
Gen Prayuth’s speculated extension also would dash the hopes of two senior officers of getting the top job: Gen Udomdet Sitabutr, deputy army chief, and Gen Paiboon Kumchaya, assistant army chief. Both have only one year in office before their retirement in September next year.
Gen Udomdet in particular is considered a legitimate candidate to be the next army chief, given his seniority and his unblemished work record. “But if Gen Prayuth opts for an extension, he will have to offer decent compensation for those who have to do without. They may get cabinet posts in return,” said a source.
But that would mean Gen Prayuth's cabinet will be too “green” with too many men in uniform holding cabinet positions — just like that of the old Myanmar junta.
Another reason many officers oppose the extension option is that Gen Prayuth may have to allow the other three commanders, namely Gen Tanasak Patimapragorn, ACM Prajin Juntong, and ADM Narong Pipattanasai, who are now deputy NCPO chiefs and also are due to retire this September, to prolong their stay in power. If that is the case, it would block the career paths of too many officers in the armed forces. “Gen Prayuth should encourage those three commanders to retire but keep them in the NCPO command. Some may be made cabinet ministers, though,” said the source.
But Gen Prayuth’s extension will also affect the army’s personnel affairs. It would be best if he sticks to his schedule, which is to retire when the time comes.
As he still has full power over the forthcoming military reshuffle, Gen Prayuth can put anyone he trusts in the most important positions, without fear of betrayal.
To be more precise, Gen Prayuth should be decisive, picking one of the two — between Gen Udomdet and Gen Paiboon — as his successor. Both are close to him and have won his trust.
Gen Udomdet, now secretary-general of the NCPO, has climbed the Queen’s Guard ranks, trailing behind Gen Prayuth, as well as his predecessors Gen Prawit Wongsuwon and Gen Anupong Paochinda.
Like Gen Prawit and Gen Prayuth, Gen Udomdet was groomed in the 2th infantry command to become a key officer in the “Tigers of the East” faction. He’s known for his softer “dove” image, and tends to compromise. Gen Prayuth has entrusted him to take charge of southern affairs.
Gen Paiboon is the opposite. He is better known as a hawk who has grown up in the Wong Tewan tradition, holding several commanding positions. He is said to be one of the chief coup planners and is close to Gen Dapong Rattanasuwan, former deputy army chief and Gen Prayuth’s friend from Class 12 of the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School. Gen Paiboon is secretary of the NCPO advisory committee under Gen Prawit and Gen Anupong. He also takes care of NCPO’s legal and judicial affairs as well as charter drafting.
In making his choice, Gen Prayuth must be sure his man will never betray him. But if he refuses to pick anyone, it means the general can only trust himself.
He is unlikely to trust anyone else for the premier’s job after learning lessons from past coups, in 1991 and 2006, when coup-installed administrations acted independently, refusing to take orders from the men who put them in power.
Wassana Nanuam is a senior news reporter covering military affairs for the Bangkok Post.