It’s summer and what better time to visit France, especially a gorgeous city like Paris. The weather forecast for the French capital for July 26 is: partly sunny, warm and humid. Temperatures should be between 19 and 30 degrees Celsius.
For some Thais, there could be no better time than July 26 to enjoy the City of Light. A special birthday party will be thrown on that day, and it will be hugely popular among those who stand on the opposite side of the National Council for Peace and Order.
When next Saturday comes around, Thaksin Shinawatra will turn 65. This birthday party will be yet another that the deposed prime minister has had to celebrate anywhere but at home. The last time he did that was when he turned 57 in 2006 — just two months before tanks and troops paraded through the streets of Bangkok and changed his life forever.
This year’s party will be a low-key affair with selected guests and carefully crafted messages to his well-wishers. With the scrapping of a plan to throw a birthday party for him at Wat Kaew Fah in Nonthaburi in the name of a merit-making ceremony, Thaksin cannot deliver his messages to avid followers in the Pheu Thai Party and United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship more directly. Still, technology will carry his wishes to their homes instead of the temple.
Last year his key word was “reconciliation”. He hoped Thais of all political colours would set aside their differences and reconcile for a better future. The message was repeated at a party in Beijing and to his supporters at the temple.
His blessing was intentionally timed since Pheu Thai was planning to push forward an amnesty bill to parliament less than a month later. The only thing he never expected was the end result of that bill push.
His birthday wish last year turned out to be disastrous because the bill never kicked in and instead sparked a rally that escalated to the point where his sister Yingluck and her cabinet were prised forcefully from power in the late afternoon of May 22 by army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha.
Thaksin knows what message he will deliver for this birthday. The key word will be “cooperation”, and again for the sake of the country. He wants his supporters to cooperate with the NCPO and follow the directions of the coup leader and other generals.
Thaksin seems to have been uncharacteristically well behaved since May 22. The former prime minister has kept a low profile in marked difference to the coup back in 2006 when he showed signs of fighting back with a plan to set up a government in exile — an option at the time.
This time it is a group called the Organisation of Free Thais for Human Rights and Democracy that has been set up to win international support for opposing military rule.
But the movement basically has been a dead squib from the beginning when the name of its leader was unveiled. Charupong Ruangsuwan has no record of fighting for democracy, and that point alone is more than enough for other countries to ignore its activities.
If there is an award for a former or present politician who is fully collaborating with the regime, then Thaksin is an obvious front-runner. Various politicians from the Democrat and Pheu Thai parties had not been able to stop commenting on this and other things — that is until they received a warning from Gen Prayuth. They should “look to Thaksin” as an example of how to keep quiet.
Thaksin knows that this coup is not a joke like the one which unseated him. He realises that he has no chance to counter the coup-makers because they are trying to bring the country back from being a deeply divided society.
Everyone knows the former prime minister does not like losing and his patience has always run thin. But any opportunity for him to make a change is limited to just one option — a poll, regardless of what the new rules will be. Derailing the NCPO’s work will only cause a fresh general election to be held later rather than sooner.
The party he supports could still win next time — but really, he only has one thing left to live on. And that’s his immediate future.
So for now it’s cut the gateau and “joyeux anniversaire, Monsieur Thaksin”.
Saritdet Marukatat is digital media news editor, Bangkok Post.