Myanmar gets the distinct honour this week of hosting several Asean meetings. The most important of all, on the weekend, is the Asean Regional Forum, popularly known as ARF. The forum brings all 10 Asean countries together with the foreign ministers of other regional and world powers. There are plenty of topics on this week's agenda but two are seriously threatening East Asian relations: North Korea and territorial disputes centering on the South China Sea.
Pyongyang's foreign minister is likely to attend the 21st ARF session. North Korea is a full partner in ARF, but its attendance is as sporadic and unpredictable as all of its policies. As of now, Asean is considering a resolution with praise for Pyongyang's family reunions with South Korea and dialogue with Japan — and criticism for missile tests and the fierce propaganda over military exercises in South Korea. Asean and partners also want to see the resumption of Six-Party Talks between North Korea and its "partners" including South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and the United States.
But the chronic and dangerous confrontation between China and several Asean members over the South China Sea will once again tax ARF ministers' diplomatic abilities. And so far, those abilities have been wanting. The claims now are well known. Beijing claims virtually all the sea, sea bed, islands and shoals. Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia dispute those claims.
In recent months, China has used force to try to intimidate the Philippines and Vietnam. It sent oil rigs into waters claimed by Hanoi, not to drill, but merely to claim its right to do so. Manila intends to bring a three-part plan to the ARF meeting. It calls for immediate action by all parties to soften their rhetoric and dangerous activities. It wants Beijing and guarantors to sign and live up to the 2002 Asean-China Declaration of Conduct in the South China Sea.
Good intentions, however, will not carry the day at the Myanmar meetings. There is virtually no chance that a plan by the Philippines — or by Vietnam or by China — can gain acceptance by all those nations. This is why outside help is vital. Indeed, it is the very reason for the existence of the ARF.
Asean itself is politically impotent by design. Formed first and foremost as an economic group, the 10-nation association requires unanimous consent to take any controversial actions. The bloc has agreed in the past to draft agreements to keep nuclear weapons out of the region. But Asean's attempts to keep peace along the South China Sea rim have been toothless.
The Asean Regional Forum, however — Asean plus other friends and neighbours — has a sharper edge. In contrast to the core group, ARF's goals are political. It was the first serious international group to invite North Korea to be a full member. The basic aim of ARF is honest discussion and transparent airing of regional problems. No one can doubt the Chinese claims to almost all of the China Sea, and the opposition of half of Asean's members, potentially represent the most dire regional problem of all.
Myanmar must step up and lead this week's meetings in Nay Pyi Daw. Fellow Asean countries must face up to the problems of the South China Sea. Manila, Hanoi and Beijing owe the region strong assurances that their political confrontations will never flare into military conflict. The Philippines' "triple action plan" deserves honest examination from all parties. But Asean and its friends must get serious on establishing a peaceful basis for settling rival claims.