Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha appears to be ready to take the country back to peace talks with one or more of the separatist groups in the deep South. Negotiations last year with the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) never lived up to their optimistic start.
Like the previous prime minister and all her predecessors, Gen Prayuth faces a dilemma. There is almost no way to tell if peace talks have even a small chance of success. Yet without talks and political agreements, there will be no peace.
There are plenty of groups claiming to represent the violent and separatist side of the southern dispute. The BRN was led by a Malaysian ustaz, Hassan Taib. His authority was never clear. He hinted at the chance of a ceasefire but never produced one, even after the government side declared a halt to offensive operations during the 2013 Ramadan month.
No group and no person ever has claimed to be in charge of the southern insurgency. Thus, all talks risk wasting the authorities' time, raising false hopes and elevating a measure of respect to opponents across the table that, in reality, they do not deserve.
When formulating the conditions for restarting official contacts with the separatists, Gen Prayuth should keep in mind what is truly at stake. Too many previous governments have faced the southern gangs as if the main issue is the central government. It is not. The survival, way of life, security and eventual prosperity of southern Thais is the main issue. They are the victims of the conflict, and they will receive the benefits when the fighting and killing end.
Gen Prayuth also must consider the use of martial law in the context of the South. This arbitrary power given to military forces has consistently failed to damp down violence in the South. Indeed, it has caused an increase in popular resentment.
If there has been any effect on the violent gangs in the region, it has served as a rallying cry to recruit new members and step up attacks to show that military intimidation does not work. Gen Prayuth must consider the negative effect martial law has on both the mood of the people and the intensity of attacks on innocent citizens.
The aim of the country's new strongman has been captured in the slogan, "returning happiness to the Thai people". The deep South has seen no such benefit. The May 22 coup was responsible for ending political violence in the Bangkok region, but no such effect was noticed in the deep South. The army and police have made several impressive seizures of weapons since the coup, but not in the southernmost provinces.
The people of the deep South are Thai citizens. But the region also has special problems and special needs. Innocent people are killed or hurt almost daily by terrorist-type violence that martial authorities seem unable to solve. Schools and markets — safe areas in most provinces — are danger zones in the deep South.
Peace talks may help to calm the savage actions of southern gangs. But Gen Prayuth, like his predecessor, seems to be taking a risk by confronting the separatists without a true peace plan or policy. Last year, the BRN seized the chance to be recognised as an equal to the government. This time, before engaging the separatists in talks, authorities should have a solid plan they can present both to the nation and to the other side in the violent South.