Last week, tens of thousands of elderly people lined up to subscribe to the social security scheme before the deadline ended on Monday.
As the crowds mobbed Social Security Offices, the scene illustrated the demographic change occurring in Thailand, as the nation rapidly becomes an ageing society. Yet without a sufficient welfare system prepared for them, the elderly are aware that they need more savings to live a quality life.
According to the Office of National Economic and Social Development Board, people aged over 60 will account for 32% of the national population by 2040. In 2010, that same demographic represented just 13.2%.
In numerical terms, that means in 2040, 20.5 million people will be past retirement age compared to 35.2 million of working age, according to NESDB projections.
But the country remains woefully unprepared to become an aged society.
Being old does not necessarily mean bad. In fact, the fact that Thai people are managing to live longer is a good sign that our health system is improving.
The issue is how to ensure the elderly will be able to live a quality life.
Japan has shown how to be an ageing yet healthy nation. But the effort requires years of preparation. Japanese senior citizens have generally high savings to enable them to enjoy their retirement years, while there have been vigorous efforts to use technology to help the elderly live independently.
The fact that more than two million Thais signed up to the social security scheme for people aged over 60 should serve as a wake-up call for society. The government must look at whether it has prepared enough resources to finance the welfare of an increasing number of elderly people.
At present, the government can generate enough revenue to finance the social security scheme. Thailand now has the highest working population in its history — 48 million people, or 71.4% of the total population. These people are driving increased revenue and growth for the country.
However, in the near future, that number will be decreasing. Unless people improve their productivity, their contribution to the overall economy and, subsequently, the government's ability to collect revenue will be reduced.
In spite of the rapid change of our population structure, Thais, in general, are not aware of how this change will affect the country's social and economic development. The NESDB is drafting a 20-year population development plan covering three areas: to match Thai people's capacity with the future needs of the country's development; to promote the economic and social security for people; and to promote the well-being of Thai families.
But policymakers must also take into consideration other issues relating to our changing demographic structure.
First of all, Thailand has become rapidly urbanised, marking a departure from our traditional agriculture-based lifestyle. Currently, around half of Thais live upcountry. By 2050, the UN World Urbanisation Prospects estimates that 72% of Thais will live in cities.
This rapid urbanisation has led to a question of whether Thailand has enough key regional cities to house the millions of people who are set to migrate.
With the looming launch of the Asean Economic Community, which will allow a freer flow of people across national borders, Thais will need to become more competitive. While other countries such as Indonesia, with its young population, will see a workforce boom in the coming years, Thailand must come to terms with the opposite. With a low birth rate, Thailand thus faces a challenge of how to develop highly skilled workers to compensate for its lower numbers.
The public and private sectors must put more effort into improving the capacity of young people to ensure that they will grow up as quality citizens.
Meanwhile, Thailand is set to house millions more migrants, but does not have a clear policy to deal with migrant worker issues such as basic rights and the welfare of their children.
People tend to overlook the social and economic impact of our changing population because it has no immediate impact in the short term. But without the proper approach to address the issue, the impact from our changing demography will have serious and long-lasting consequences. Issues relating to population change require sustainable and long-term solutions.
The piecemeal social security policy marks an effort to cope with the changing structure of Thai society.
But people should not have to only rely on state contributions. There should be other sustainable systems to support both our senior and youth populations to ensure their continued quality of life.